November, and another UN climate conference opens against the backdrop of a devastating and heart-breaking storm. Tens of thousands have lost their lives and hundreds of thousands their homes in typhoon Haiyan - in an event that is destined to be repeated more and more often if we do not cut the carbon pollution that is destabilising our climate.
Yet even as the typhoon raged across the Philippines, representatives of the coal industry were arriving in Warsaw at the invitation of the Polish government, apparently oblivious to the costs of their business in human misery and irreversible impacts on our planet.
The appalling political blindness that allows a ‘coal COP’ to take place at the heart of international climate talks is symptomatic of a wider political paralysis. Governments feel trapped in a web of dependencies on the fossil fuel industry - through pension funds and share-holdings, through the tax revenues that fund public services, and above all through the need for energy to fuel businesses and heat homes.
Most of us, in one way or another, are high carbon junkies – apart, that is, from the poor, who face the full force of the climate crisis, whilst benefitting very little from the power system that has driven it.
Yet however tangled these dependencies may seem they are not immutable. Because at the same as the impacts of climate change are multiplying, the economics of the global energy system are changing before our eyes.
The costs of renewable energy are falling all over the world, in no small part because governments have introduced laws and incentive schemes to support their deployment, which in turn have enabled improvements in technology design and manufacturing processes. In many cases, these policies have followed agreements forged at the UN – including the Kyoto Protocol, and more recently the Cancun Accords.
As a result, the market penetration of renewables is now posing profound challenges to the viability of fossil-based energy systems. If you want to be made giddy by the pace of change, take a look at this energy story from California, where the future is upon us: and it surely isn’t coal.
The exciting thing about this transformation is that where it is happening, ordinary people are no longer dependent on huge power companies for their basic energy needs. Renewable technologies are perfectly suited to local ownership and management. Stories of solar-powered communities taking off all over the world are inspiring not just because they are cutting pollution - they are also democratising energy.
You might think there could be no greater contrast between these projects and the deliberations of investment analysts in Hong Kong, New York and London. Yet here too recognition is growing that some kinds of fossil fuel projects are much less financially attractive than they once were. This piece on the end of old king coal by Ben Caldecott provides a glimpse into a world where high carbon doesn’t necessarily mean big bucks. The same could be said about the wishful economics of Arctic oil, where the balance of high capital costs and environmental, technical and political risks look distinctly unappealing.
But talking about the Arctic brings us back to the more sober realities of climate politics. Because although these changes bring hope, they also bring danger. The men and women arrested in Russia after a Greenpeace protest against oil drilling in the Arctic were, by their actions, challenging the core interests of the fossil fuel industry. And they were doing so at a time when this challenge is more than just a minor irritation; it is part of an accelerating and titanic battle between high and low-carbon energy sources.
To their credit, the Arctic 30 chose to fight their corner (and ours) armed only with faith, rope and banners. It is a chilling reminder however, of the seriousness of the struggle, that they were met with guns and knives; and that they now face the possibility of many years in prison.
As we gather in Poland, first and foremost we must have in our minds the victims of Typhoon Haiyan, and the millions of ordinary people who are bearing the brunt of devastating climate change. But for their sakes, let us also remember that we are on the brink of a profound change in how we make and use energy.
And let us demand of every negotiator, every business leader and every minister that they will let nothing stand in the way of this transformation; that they will go faster and further than they have ever done before in driving it forward; and that there will be no turning back.
Ruth Davis is the Political Director for Greenpeace UK.