The report, a global overview, is based on
Greenpeace’s Energy [R]evolution modelling whose Canadian results call for 1,000 megawatts (MW) of solar photovoltaics (PV) to be installed in Canada by 2015, 3,000 MW by 2020 and 5,000 MW by 2030 in the advanced scenario (called the ‘paradigm shift’ in the Solar Generation report).
The report anticipates investment in the already-booming solar market to double over the next five years as solar PV capacity grows from 23 gigawatts (GW) at the beginning of 2010 to 180 GW by 2015. And thanks to the cost reductions that come with mass production, production costs will be reduced by 40 per cent.
The EPIA and Greenpeace are making the case that with the right policies (like the feed-in tariffs and priority grid access in Ontario’s Green Energy Act), solar PV could account for five per cent of global power demand by 2020, and up to nine per cent by 2030. This would cut greenhouse gas emissions 1.4 billion tonnes per year (or over twice Canada’s total emissions and we’re in the top 10 of global greenhouse gas polluters).
Even the “paradigm shift” scenario identified in the new solar report isn’t looking too tough, however, when you consider that Ontario has already contracted for over 1,250 MW of solar power by adapting the very policies that were so successful in Europe.
For Canada to meet and exceed the 2020 and 2030 targets, other provinces must pass their own Green Energy Acts and allow clean, renewable energy to replace polluting sources of power. We also need Ontario to leave space for green energy to continue to grow post-2015, by replacing its nuclear plants with green energy as they reach their end-of-life.
The Solar Revolution report was released in India, however, because the major growth in the solar industry in the coming decades will be in the developing world, where PV can be integrated into grids and be a great option for improving global equity and health by providing clean energy to communities that currently lack access to the grid. Recognizing this, India has committed to bringing 20 GW of solar power on-line by 2022.
Let’s not let Canada get left behind.
Keith Stewart is climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Canada
NOTE: Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts solar could represent 4.3 per cent of U.S. electricity supply by 2020, in line with Greenpeace report. “Policy, rather than sunshine, will remain the U.S.’s greatest solar resource for the next few years,” said Milo Sjardin, Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s U.S. head of research. “By the middle of this decade, however, the U.S. retail solar market will be driven by fundamental, unsubsidized competition, which should transform the U.S. into one of the world’s most dynamic solar markets."
Download the Solar Generation report