"Crucially, it has not offered up any unconditional target at
all, making us virtually the only developed country in the
negotiations without one," said Greenpeace Senior Climate
Campaigner Simon Boxer.
"What the New Zealand Government is saying with its highly
conditional range of 10-20% is that unless other countries shoulder
New Zealand's burden, then there's no deal. This is an incredibly
dangerous position to take at such a crucial time.
"It also means the Government has an easy way out if a global
deal isn't easily reached. John Key is setting the benchmark low
and thereby dragging other countries down.
"On the one hand the government says it agrees with the idea of
keeping global warming below 2 degrees, but its target range
doesn't give us even a slim chance of keeping a lid on warming
below 2 degrees.
"We have a long long way to go before New Zealand is a
constructive player at the UN climate negotiations in Copenhagen in
December; 10-20% does not even put us at the LOWER rung of what the
science says is required. They have fired a dart and the dart
hasn't even hit the dartboard.
He said the figures being used by the government to support such
a low target range were meaningless and they needed to stop citing
them. "This is National's biggest political decision and it's
disappointing that it has relied on irrelevant economic modelling
to reach it."
The Infometrics/ NZIER modelling used by the Government to
decide on a target has been widely described as being the wrong
tool for the job, a view borne out by a highly critical report
released today by Dr Hugh Saddler (1).
"The abatement costs estimated by the modelling are a gross
over-estimate of what it would actually cost to reduce New
Zealand's emissions," said Saddler. "In light of many deficiencies,
we conclude that the modelling approach is an entirely
inappropriate tool for informing decisions about what emissions
abatement target should be adopted by New Zealand."
The Government had also chosen to ignore the urgency and threat
of climate change, said Boxer. "The most recent climate science
assessment (2) states that a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions by 2020 on 1990 levels for the developed world is
essential to give us even a 50:50 chance of avoiding runaway
catastrophic climate change.
"Over 90,000 Kiwis have joined the Sign On campaign, which calls
for a 40% target and support for the campaign will only continue to
grow in the lead up to Copenhagen.
"The names of the leaders who either succeed or fail at
Copenhagen will go down in the history books - we remain hopeful
that John Key will to what's necessary, Sign On to 40%, and be
remembered for taking the difficult decisions when it really
counted and allowing New Zealand to hold its head up high on the
world stage. With a conditional target range of 10-20% we're at
risk of looking like laggards and destroying our clean green
reputation."
Other contacts: Simon Boxer – Greenpeace Climate Campaigner – 021 905579
Kathy Cumming – Greenpeace Communications and Media – 021 495 216
Notes: (1) Comments on General Equilibrium Analysis of a 40% Reduction in Emissions by 2020 - http://greenpeace.org.nz/pdf/comments-on-infometrics.pdf. Dr Hugh Saddler has been involved in the development of national energy policy in the UK and Australia, including the development of emissions trading schemes. He is the author of a book on Australian energy policy, 'Energy in Australia' and over 50 scientific papers, monographs and articles on energy technology and environmental policy, and is recognised as one of Australia's leading experts in this field. He is currently a member of the Experts Group on Emissions Trading, appointed by the Australian Greenhouse Office
(2) University of Copenhagen, Synthessis Report, Climate Change Global Risks Challenges and Decisions Copenhagen 2009 10 – 12 March www.climatecongress.ku.dk