The impacts of climate catastrophe

Feature story - December 7, 2009
The United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark is considered the most important meeting on global warming ever. The meeting from December 7 to 18 could determine the fate of the climate. Greenpeace has called on world leaders to use the Copenhagen conference for setting the world on a path to the deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that could prevent climate chaos.

The need for leadership is unprecedented. Without action on global warming, the human tragedy of climate change will be staggering. There will also be devastating effects on the environment and the global economy.

Climate scientists say that to avoid catastrophic climate change the increase in the average global temperature must be less than 2° C above pre-industrial levels.  To have reasonable chance of avoiding a higher temperature increase, industrial countries, including Canada, must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions 25 to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Developed countries must also provide a substantial amount of financing and technology for mitigation, adaptation and forest protection in developing countries.

Human Impacts of climate change

The evidence of significant human tragedy from climate change is substantial and growing. The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis Human Impact Report: Climate Change Global Humanitarian Forum, Geneva says that every year the deaths of over 300,000 people are attributable to climate change. Another 325 million are seriously affected. The report notes that its" figures represent averages

based on projected trends over many years and carry a significant margin of error. The real numbers

could be lower or higher." The report also says:

•    Climate change already causes economic losses of US$125 billion annually.

•    The increasing severity of events like flooding and storms will be responsible for 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the biggest humanitarian crisis the world faces.

•    Close to 310 million more people will suffer adverse health consequences related to temperature increases; 20 million more will fall into poverty, and a further 5 million will be displaced by climate change.

•    There are now over 400 weather-related disasters per year and almost 90 million people require immediate assistance as a result.

The Institute for Environment and Human Security, affiliated with United Nations University, estimated that the number of environmental refugees was 20 million in 2005 and predicted that by 2010 the number could be as high as 50 million. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that there will be 150 million environmental refugees by 2050.

In Africa, an estimated 10 million people have migrated or been displaced over the last two decades mainly because of environmental degradation and desertification. The most widely cited figure for the number of environmental refugees is 200 million people who could be forced from their homes by 2050, of which 150 million would be climate refugees.  (Source: Myers, N., and Kent, J. (1995): "Environmental exodus: an emergent crisis in the global arena," Washington, DC: The Climate Institute.)

Canada's response to the threat of climate catastrophe

Canada's response to the climate crisis has been unacceptable. Canada ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 and promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by six per cent below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. At present, Canada's greenhouse gas emissions are already about 34 per cent higher than its target under the Kyoto Protocol. The Harper government has refused to honour the protocol.

The Harper government says it supports only "modest" reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Its current target is to reduce emissions by three per cent below 1990 levels by 2020-significantly less than the requirement under the protocol and eight years late. Prime Minister Harper has not supported science-based reduction targets.

Recently, Opposition Leader Michael Ignatieff delivered a major speech on climate change. Unfortunately, the speech did not identify a science-based reduction target for Canada. In fact, the speech didn't have a reduction target at all despite the fact that on the day before his speech Ignatieff voted in the House of Commons in favour of a non-binding motion on climate change that included a science-based target.

Both Harper and Ignatieff continue to support the development of dirty oil in the tar sands. The tar sands are the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada. The development of the tar sands is a key reason for inaction on the climate crisis in Canada.

A proper Canadian response to climate change

Greenpeace calls on the Harper government to show leadership in Copenhagen and to support a legally binding agreement that will lead to significant, science-based reductions in Canada's greenhouse gas emissions.

Canada must reduce emissions at least 25 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Canada must also agree to join other industrialised countries in providing predictable funding to help developing countries implement clean energy systems, protect tropical forests and adapt to the impacts of climate change that are now unavoidable. It is estimated that this funding should be about US$140 billion a year. Canada's share would be between C$2 and $6 billion a year.

Canada must also support a funding mechanism that would end gross deforestation and associated emissions in all developing countries by 2020. This must include a commitment to achieving zero deforestation by 2015 in priority areas, such as the Amazon and Congo Basin. Areas of high conservation values and areas important to the livelihoods of indigenous peoples and forest communities would be given priority protection.

Expectations for the Copenhagen conference

The fundamental outcomes for a successful agreement in Copenhagen include:

•    Legally binding reduction targets of at least 25 to 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 for industrialized countries. The global scientific community has established these targets for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as necessary in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Purchase of international credits or emission permits must be in addition to these reductions.

•    Massive funding for mitigation and adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Industrial nations need to provide both private and public funding to help the developing world reduce emissions, adapt to unavoidable impacts of climate change, halt deforestation, and adopt clean energy technologies.

•    An effective carbon market providing at least US $140 billion annually for mitigation and adaptation in developing world. Much of this fund could be generated by an international emissions trading system. Canada's share would be between C$2 and $6 billion.

•    Rejecting unsustainable technologies like carbon capture and nuclear. These unproven and unsustainable technologies should not be recognized as legitimate elements of flexibility mechanisms or carbon markets.

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For more information, please contact:

Jessica Wilson, Media and Public Relations Officer, (778) 228-5404

Catherine Vézina, Media and Public Relations Officer, (514) 212-5749

Mike Hudema, Climate and Energy Campaigner, (780) 504-5601

Christy Ferguson, Climate and Energy Coordinator, (416) 451-9354