Today, our world is hotter than it has been in 2,000 years.
While the end of the 20th century may not necessarily be the
warmest time in Earth's history, what is unique is that the warmth
is global and cannot be explained by the natural mechanisms that
explain previous warm periods. There is a broad scientific
consensus that humanity is in large part responsible for this
change, and that choices we make today will decide the climate of
the future.
How are we changing the climate?
For more than a century, people have relied on fossil fuels such
as oil, coal and gas for energy. Burning these fossil fuels
releases the global warming gas, carbon dioxide, into the
atmosphere. Other, even more potent greenhouse gasses, are also
playing a role as is massive deforestation.
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now
sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action."--
Joint statement by 11 national science academies to world leaders
(full
text)
What we know
While there are still uncertainties, particularly related to the
timing, extent and regional variations of climate change, there is
mainstream scientific agreement on the key facts:
- Certain gasses, such as carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere
create a "greenhouse effect", trapping heat and keeping the Earth
warm enough to sustain life as we know it.
- Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, etc.) releases more carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere. Although not the most potent
greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide is the most significant in terms of
human effects because of the large quantities emitted.
- Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are now the
highest in 150,000 years.
- The 1990's was most likely the warmest decade in history, and
1998 the warmest year.
There is also widespread agreement that:
- A certain amount of additional warming - about 1.3º Celsius
(2.3º Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels - is probably
inevitable because of emissions so far. Limiting warming to under
2° Celsius (3.6°F) is considered vital to preventing the worst
effects of global warming.
- If our greenhouse gas emissions are not brought under control,
the speed of climate change over the next hundred years will be
faster than anything known since before the dawn of
civilization.
- There is a very real possibility that climate feedback
mechanisms will result in a sudden and irreversible climate shift.
No one knows how much global warming it would take to trigger such
a "doomsday scenario".
Links:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC Third assessment report
Climate Action Network (CAN) – “Preventing Dangerous Climate Change” – Position Paper (pdf)
Implications of the IPCC third assessment report – Greenpeace briefing
New Scientist magazine special climate change section
National Geographic special climate change section