Page - October 19, 2006
Heat waves attributable in part to climate change are forecast to kill hundreds of thousands in this century, however climate change will also have disastrous effects on water supplies, agriculture, and the spread of disease. Rich and poor alike will be affected, but countries that are already struggling to provide food and water for their people will suffer the most.
Water
Disappearingglaciers, increasing droughts and salt-water
intrusion will greatlyworsen our world's current fresh water
shortage. The IPCC estimates 3billion or more additional people
will be at risk of water shortage dueto climate change. The
Stockholm Environment Institute estimatesthat, using only a
moderate projection of climate change, 63 percent ofthe global
population will live in countries of significant waterstress by
2025.
Food
Droughts,water shortages, rising sea levels, floods, heat waves
and temperatureshifts will damage food production in many parts of
the world.Mid-continental areas, including vast parts of Asia and
the US "grainbelt", are likely to dry. In areas were dry land
agriculture isdependent solely on rain, such as in sub-Saharan
Africa, even a minimalincrease in temperature would dramatically
decrease food production.
Oneextremely disturbing case of how a small change can produce
unexpectedresults is the susceptibility of rice to temperature
shifts. Accordingto a study by the International Rice Research
Institute, rice yieldsdecrease by 10 percent for every 1° C (1.8°F)
increase in minimum nighttime temperature. Rice is the staple food
for more than half of theworld's population - meaning this one
unexpected impact of climatechange could have profound
consequences.
Health
Climatechange increases the spread of disease in a number of
ways. Perhaps most significantly by increasing the range of
tropical andsub-tropical infection bearing pests, such as malaria
and denguecarrying mosquitoes. Roughly 300 million more people will
be at risk ofmalaria with global warming of about 2-3° C
(3.6-5.4°F). Floods will also compromise water quality - spreading
cholera and otherdiseases.
More information:
Up in smoke? - Working Group on Climate Change and
Development