The 'Green Idol' ballot box containing signed petitions urging for a Renewable Energy Law[Mumbai]. The petitions will be forwarded to the MPs of the respective constituencies.
Officially speaking, the Indian monsoons have set in. Going by
the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) own timelines, Kerala
received its first showers a week earlier than usual. The early
onset does not, of course, imply it is a good monsoon, but it's
welcome. Last year's scanty precipitation left even an otherwise
wet state of Kerala comparatively parched.
What really is 'normal'?
Going by a recent report, "the IMD predicted that the monsoon
rainfall across the country this year (2009) would be four per cent
below the long-term average, with an error bar of plus or minus
five percentage points." And that an error up to 10 per cent of the
long-term average is 'normal'.
But then again, what really is 'normal'? Quite clearly, without
having reached anywhere close to the 10 per cent threshold, which
in any event is an enormous deviation, changing monsoon patterns in
the last decade alone, have wrecked havoc across the Indian
subcontinent.
Case in point
In 2006, Cherapunji, the wettest place on the planet received
considerably lower amounts of rainfall, whereas states such as
Rajasthan known to be relatively dry were inundated (by its
standards) causing calamity and chaos, taking lives, leaving behind
disease and what have you. The deluge in Mumbai in July 2005 is
another classic case, of the loss of lives and property and
business loss running into crores.
Cyclone Aila that hit the Bangladesh and the Sunderbans region
killing hundreds and leaving over 24,000 people homeless and
stranded in its wake and destroying large tracts one of the most
pristine mangrove-rich tiger territory, just about a week ago, is
just another case in point.
Surely and steadily, anomaly is becoming the norm. The intensity
and frequency of freak spells of rain and drought, cyclones and
storms are becoming commonplace. And with every passing year,
matters are only going to get worse. In response, Greenpeace
pointed out that these alterations are going to become a 'normal'
feature. Science increasingly suggests that climate change is going
to change the pattern of the Indian monsoon.
Climate change and Indian monsoon
On assessing the historical data, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change in its fourth Assessment Report suggested that
"warming in India is likely to be above the average for South Asia,
with an increase in summer precipitation and an increase in the
frequency of intense precipitation in some parts." That the Indian
monsoons are going to undergo gross changes as a direct result of
climate change - rainfall will increase by ~ 20 per cent overall in
the summer monsoon, but the distribution of this increase will not
be evenly spread across the country.
The extent to which these monsoonal patterns change is a
function of global changes in climate. Climate change is likely to
lead to a stronger but more variable monsoon until 2100.
Thereafter, with the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and its
effects on temperatures in the North Atlantic, and in turn, the
pattern of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, the grip on the
monsoon will weaken. But that is nine decades away. What is
imminent and looming at large are the dire consequences of a
climate changed monsoon.
True that traditionally, India has not contributed to the
problem of climate change, we are facing today. Yet, we have too
much to lose from inaction.
Monsoons and the economy
Today, close to two thirds of humanity live within regions
influenced by the Asian monsoon and depend on the water that it
brings to support agriculture, and to supply potable water. And the
Indian subcontinent lies close to the centre of the monsoonal
region.
Despite the gradual shift away from agriculture, India is still
largely an agrarian state. Agriculture still accounts for a third
of India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Essentially implying, we
depend on the monsoons for our produce and largely, our exports (70
per cent in terms of value).
Going by figures presented in the recent Greenpeace paper
Monsoon
Wager: Climate Change and the Indian Monsoon, a rural population
of 700 million is directly dependent on climate sensitive sectors
and resources. Given that India is reeling under the pressure of
such a high population, with limited agricultural lands and water
resources, any changes in monsoon patterns would jeopardise
development patterns completely. It can indisputably stated, then
that, if these variations continue 'normal' (by IMD's definition)
or otherwise, it would irreversibly damage the country's economy
and food security.
Let's not wait for the 11th hour
It's not a question anymore. Regardless of whether India has
contributed to climate change or how much or how little of it is
responsible for, it will bear the brunt of it consequences. We
stand much to lose from this global phenomenon unless we take
quick, long steps to arrest climate change, now.
There is no doubt that we are a developing nation, and that we
have millions of people living in poverty, seeking basic facilities
- access to water, electricity, medical facilities. All the same,
we cannot afford to take the trodden path to achieve this
development. What we need to do instead is use this as an
opportunity and develop alternate strategies to reach the end goal
- development.
Quit coal, adopt renewables
It's not about how much energy we produce, but how we produce
it! Past experience clearly indicates that coal is not the answer.
Not digging up new pits, not importing it from elsewhere… Coal is
dirty, it's exhaustible and comes with a baggage of socio-economic
and environmental costs.
Renewables on the other hand, are an extant technology, but they
are not currently cost effective. What is implicit is that they are
renewable, in addition to the fact that they are clean and
reliable. And most importantly, they can be harnessed today. As a
minimum, India must have a Rewewable Energy Law - workable,
measurable and set to achieve certain targets, in place. And to
achieve this, India must continue to pressurise nations of the
north to aid countries such as ours. Simultaneously, India has to
take urgent measures to curtail carbon emissions - by phasing out
our dependence on coal, adopting renewable forms of energy such as
solar, wind, geothermal, biomass.
India is going to suffer from the impacts of a climate changed
monsoon and the life giving rains could well become the life taking
rains, and it would be imprudent to be twiddling our thumbs rather
than take the necessary steps to mitigate climate change. We just
can't afford it.
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