The 100-page report was developed in conjunction with
specialists from the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics at the
German Aerospace Centre (DLR). Splitting the world into 10 regions,
it provides the first comprehensive global energy concept which
gives a detailed analysis of how to restructure the global energy
system based only on proven and sustainable technologies, such as
renewable energy sources and efficient, decentralised cogeneration.
More than 30 scientists and engineers from universities, institutes
and the renewable energy industry around the world collaborated to
provide the detailed regional assessments for the future potential
for renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures.
Notably, the plan takes into account rapid economic growth areas
such as China, India and Africa, and provides for the staged
phasing out of nuclear and coal as environmentally unsafe or
damaging fuel sources. The Energy [R]evolution scenario is compared
in the report to the effects on CO2 emissions (and, thereby climate
change) of carrying on with a 'business as usual' scenario, this
scenario being provided by the t he International Energy
Association's breakdown of 10 world regions, as used in the ongoing
series of World Energy Outlook reports
"The Energy Revolution scenario has come at the perfect time,
when the world is crying out for a roadmap for tackling the dilemma
of how to provide the power we all need, without fuelling climate
change," said K Srinivas, Climate and Energy Campaigner, Greenpeace
India . "We have shown that the world can have safe, robust
renewable energy that we can achieve the efficiencies needed and we
can do all this whilst enjoying global economic growth and phasing
out damaging and dangerous sources such as coal and nuclear, " he
continued.
However, the report also highlights that the time window for
making the key decisions in energy infrastructure - which will
spark the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy - is
relatively short. Within the next decade, many of the existing
power plants in the OECD countries will come to the end of their
technical lifetime and will need to be replaced, whilst developing
countries such as China, India and Brazil are rapidly building up
new energy infrastructure to service their growing economies. The
key decisions which could either start a renewable energy future,
or keep the world on the 'business as usual' path will be made by
governments, investment institutions and utility companies in the
next few years.
Arthouros Zervos, co-author and president of the European
Renewable Energy Industry Council (EREC) said: "With wind and solar
markets worth US$ 38 billion and doubling in size every three
years, their growth follows the path of the internet or mobile
technology. We therefore call on decision makers around the world
to make this vision a reality. The political choices of the coming
years will determine the world's environmental and economic
situation for many decades to come. Renewable energy can and will
have to play a leading role in the world's energy future. There is
no technical but a political barrier to make this shift."
The report also highlights the economic advantages of the energy
revolution scenario - the global market for renewable energy can
grow at a double digit rate till 2050, and achieve the size of
today's fossil fuel industry. It concludes that renewable energies
will represent the backbone of the world's economy - not only in
OECD countries, but also in developing countries such as China,
India and Brazil.
G. Ananthapadmanabhan, Executive Director, Greenpeace India said
"with business and political Leaders from across the globe meeting
at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the launch of this report
will offer a definitive framework for world energy outlook and
enable these global leaders to adapt and implement solutions which
will have a significant impact on global emission reductions. We
call upon the world leaders to use the report and come out with an
immediate policy and implementation framework which will start to
address the issue of energy for all while reducing emissions".
Welcoming the report, R. K. Pachauri, chair of the IPCC, said
"There is now growing awareness on the imperatives for a global
energy future which marks a distinct departure from past trends and
patterns of energy production and use."
A copy of the Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy
Outlook report can be downloaded at:
www.greenpeace.org/energyrevolution and www.energyblueprint.info
For further information, contact
K. Srinivas, Greenpeace India Climate and Energy Campaigner,
Ph: 09845112130, email: 
Ruchira Talukdar, Greenpeace India Media Officer, Ph: 09900264127, email: 
Oliver Schäfer, Policy Director of EREC, +32 496 65 2837
Sven Teske, Greenpeace International Renewable Energy Campaigner, + 31- 62129 68 94
Mhairi Dunlop, Greenpeace International media officer, + 44 7801 212 960 Isabel Leal, Greenpeace International media officer, +34 6472 41502
Notes to Editor
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply, within a single generation. Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the 'business as usual' scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a, and a quadrupling of electricity costs. This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for developing a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
1. The report was commissioned by Greenpeace and EREC from the Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics) at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR).
2. The report develops a global sustainable energy pathway up to 2050. The future potential for renewable energy sources has been assessed with input from all sectors of the renewable energy industry around the world, and forms the basis of the Energy [R]evolution Scenario.
3. The energy supply scenarios adopted in this report, which both extend beyond and enhance projections by the International Energy Agency, have been calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model. This has then been further developed by the Ecofys consultancy to take into account the future potential for energy efficiency measures.
4. The Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply through the following mechanisms:
• Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 410,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the reference scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a. This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
• The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) also improves the supply system's energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and biomass. In the long term, decreasing demand for heat and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
• The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. By 2050, around 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources, including large hydro. An installed capacity of 7,100 GW will produce 21,400 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) of electricity in 2050.
• In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 65% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.
• Before biofuels can play a substantial role in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass.
• By 2050, half of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.