According to the IEA's figures, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
for both countries combined could more than double to 14,7 billion
tones by 2030, about fifty five percent of the current global
emissions.
"The IEA's projections are likely to be seized upon by the likes
of US President George Bush and Australian PM John Howard to argue
that they do not need to act until India and China take on binding
commitments to cut CO2," said Sven Teske, energy expert at
Greenpeace International. "To avoid the worst impacts of climate
change, all countries urgently need to act," said Teske. "Big
emitters like the US must lead the way, starting at next month's UN
climate talks, in Bali."
"What the IEA projects may happen is not inevitable and fails to
take into account realistic options for limiting carbon dioxide
emissions in both China and India," he said.
Greenpeace wants urgent international action to kick-start a
revolution in how the world produces and consumes energy in order
to avert a climate catastrophe.
Sven Teske has supervised the development of a series of 'Energy
Revolution' scenarios for Greenpeace which include projections of
energy use and carbon dioxide emissions for China and India. Teske
is confident that the future is bright as regards energy use in
China and India and he rejects the IEA "business as usual"
projections.
"So-called 'business-as-usual' in energy policy should include
the reality of having to combat climate change, not just leaving
solutions to chance," he said.
Teske's work for Greenpeace shows that making wide-ranging
investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies
could stabilise carbon dioxide emissions from China's and India's
burgeoning economies and return carbon dioxide emissions to current
levels by 2050. But successfully combating climate change also
requires industrialised countries to rapidly reduce their CO2
emissions 30 per cent below the 1990 level by 2020, instead of the
15 per cent emissions increase shown in recent projections in the
IEA's World Energy Outlook.
IEA forecasts suggest a doubling worldwide in the number of
coal-fired power plants, the number one "climate killer", to over
2,700 by 2030, fifty seven per cent of which could be built in
China and India. But this overlooks that between them, China and
India already produce nearly a quarter of the world's renewable
electricity, the market for which is growing rapidly.
Climate scientists in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change conclude that increases in global average
temperature, compared to the pre-industrial era, should be kept as
far below 2 degree Celsius C as possible to avoid the worst impacts
of climate change. This calls for at least halving carbon dioxide
emissions worldwide by 2050 instead of allowing emissions to
double, as the IEA forecasts.
Energy Revolution
Greenpeace's 'Energy Revolution' scenarios show how making
additional investments in renewable energy would pay back
handsomely. A global annual investment of US $22 billion in clean
power plants could produce fuel cost savings of up to $202 billion
per year, paying back the investment 10 times over. The value of
the renewables industry - worth $50 billion in 2006 - could
increase to $288 billion annually by 2030. Meanwhile, converting
the massive subsidies of $250 billion a year that coal and gas
receive to clean, safe renewable energy would more than cover the
costs of achieving the energy revolution.
China
The Energy Revolution scenario for China shows that the
country's current target for energy efficiency gains by 2010 is a
good move towards more sustainable development. Recent reports,
like the Chinese wind report 2007 launched last week in Shanghai,
show that more ambitious targets for both wind and solar energy in
China are possible. Greenpeace wants the Chinese government to
raise and implement targets for renewable energy and improving
energy efficiency in order to limit the growth of energy
consumption as China continues to develop.
Greenpeace China climate and energy campaign manager, Ailun
Yang, said, "Transforming the power sector in China is a big task,
but it must and can be done. Success in the fight against climate
change lies in a 'decarbonised' model of growth for key developing
countries."
India
Greenpeace's energy scenario for India shows that large-scale
investments in energy efficiency measures could limit the increase
in energy demand to just one-third above the current level by 2050,
rather than see it triple, according to conventional wisdom. By
mid-century, 60 per cent of India's electricity could be produced
from renewable sources keeping India's CO2 emissions at the level
of 2010 levels, instead of trebling as they do underthe IEA
projections.
Greenpeace India energy expert, Soumyabrata Rahut, said, "We
urge the Indian government to implement a renewable energy law by
2010. This must provide incentives for investment in renewable
technologies such as preferential tariffs and open transmission and
encourage consumers to buy green energy. There are two key steps
the government should take. The first is to introduce progressive
mandatory efficiency standards for lighting products by 2010,
effectively ban the energy-wasting incandescent bulb. Second, India
needs progressive mandatory fuel efficiency standards for the
transport sector by 2012."
Governments from around the world meet at next month's UN
climate conference in Bali, Indonesia. Greenpeace wants them to
agree on a strong mandate for further international negotiations
that would cement deep and long-term legally-binding emissions
reductions into an extension of the current Kyoto Protocol beyond
2012.
Other contacts: Ailun Yang climate and energy campaign manager of Greenpeace China:+86 13910514449Soumyabrata Rahut, climate and energy expert for Greenpeace India: + 9198455 35403Sven Teske, Greenpeace International renewable energy campaign, + 31 6212968 94Jo Kuper, Greenpeace International communications, + 31 6 46 16 20 39
Notes: A copy of the Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable world energy outlookreport is available at: www.greenpeace.org/energyrevolutionThe specific scenarios for India and China are available atwww.energyblueprint.info