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Climate change to intensify Asia's misery, says scientist

Coal is the worst climate offender Enlarge Image

Stop climate change

The world's leaders meet at the end of 2009 in Copenhagen to determine the fate of the climate. They could set us on the path to a deep emissions cuts or they could lock the planet into catastrophic, irreversible climate change.

Temperature change 1765-2100: Graph excerpted from the IPCC's Third Assessment Report showing past and predicted changes to global temperature. Enlarge Image

Science

Climate change is a reality. Today, our world is hotter than it has been in two thousand years. By the end of the century, if current trends continue, the global temperature will likely climb higher than at any time in the past two million years. While the end of the 20th century may not necessarily be the warmest time in Earth's history, what is unique is that the warmth is global and cannot be explained by the natural mechanisms that explain previous warm periods. There is a broad scientific consensus that humanity is in large part responsible for this change, and that choices we make today will decide the climate of the future.

Scientific consensus

There is, in fact, a broad and overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change is occurring, is caused in large part by human activities (such as burning fossil fuels), and if left un-checked will likely have disastrous consequences.

The specks on ice are explorers Lonnie Dupre and Eric Larsen, setting off on the first ever unsupported summer crossing of the Arctic Ocean in order to draw attention to global warming. Enlarge Image

Climate research

It was realised by the mid-18th century that some gases in the Earth's atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, trap heat and keep the Earth warm. At the start of the 20th century, a Swedish scientist named Svante Arrhenius put forward the idea that human emissions of carbon dioxide would eventually raise temperatures. He didn't see this as a particularly bad thing, and most scientists at the time were sceptical that humans could burn fossil fuels fast enough to have a noticeable impact at all.

Illustration of the greenhouse effect. Enlarge Image

Greenhouse effect

The Earth's atmosphere is made up of a blanket of gases, which trap enough heat to sustain life. However, by burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests humans pump billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. We also add other gasses to the atmosphere in smaller quantities.

Carbon dioxide emissions and the carbon cycle. Enlarge Image

CO2 emissions

The primary human source of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is from the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transport. Changes in land use and deforestation also contribute significantly. Trees, for example, are natural 'carbon sinks' - they absorb carbon dioxide while alive and when they are destroyed, carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, most of the carbon dioxide stays there for 50 to 200 years, and some of it stays there indefinitely.

Flooded village in southern France, close to a nuclear power station. Earlier in 2003 the same area experienced a long drought. Climate change means more extreme weather like flooding and droughts. Enlarge Image

Impacts

No one knows how much warming is "safe". What we do know is that climate change is already harming people and ecosystems. Its reality can be seen in melting glaciers, disintegrating polar ice, thawing permafrost, dying coral reefs, rising sea levels, changing ecosystems and fatal heat waves. And it is not only scientists that are witnessing these changes. From Inuit in the far north to islanders near the equator - people are already struggling with the impacts of climate change.

Sandstorms originating from the Mongolian desert can reach as far as Japan. Each year, volunteers from Japan come to plant trees in Western China. Enlarge Image

Health, food and water

Heat waves attributable in part to climate change are forecast to kill hundreds of thousands in this century, however climate change will also have disastrous effects on water supplies, agriculture, and the spread of disease. Rich and poor alike will be affected, but countries that are already struggling to provide food and water for their people will suffer the most.

Pita Meanke, of Betio village, stands beside a tree as he watches the 'king tides' crash through the sea wall into his family's property, on the South Pacific island of Kiribati. Enlarge Image

Sea level rise

"The Maldives is one of the small states. We are not in a position to change the course of events in the world. But what you do or do not do here will greatly influence the fate of my people. It can also change the course of world history." -- Statement by H.E. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (Maldives) Kyoto, Japan, 3rd Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC

Floods in southern France only months after a severe drought and forest fires in the same area. Global warming, caused by ever increasing consumption of fossil fuels like oil, means extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Enlarge Image

Extreme weather

There is strong evidence that extreme weather events – such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and heat waves – are increasing because of climate change. In fact, the Financial Initiative of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) recently calculated that the economic costs of global warming are doubling every decade. The cumulative number of people affected by disasters rose to two billion in the 1990s, up from 740 million in the 1970s. Virtually all of these millions were concentrated in poorer countries.

A family living next to the sea in the village of Tenoraereke, stand with Greenpeace Climate Change campaigner on the South Pacific island of Kiribati, beside some collapsed coconut trees, fallen over due to sea erosion. Enlarge Image

Climate voices

The real meaning of climate change can not be fully grasped from scientific charts and equations alone; one needs to hear the stories of those who are living through it, grappling with its implications, and struggling to find ways to halt it. Part of what we do is to give a voice to these first hand witnesses of climate change. Here is what some of them have to say:

The UK's first wind farm in the Irish Sea which will supply 50,000 homes with power. Enlarge Image

Wind

Wind power, the world's fastest growing energy source, is a deceptively simple technology. Behind the tall, slender towers and steadily turning blades lies a complex interplay of lightweight materials, aerodynamic design and computer controlled electronics. Power is transferred from the rotor through a gearbox, sometimes operating at variable speed, and then to a generator (although some turbines avoid a gearbox by use of direct drive).

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