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Yellow River at Risk

Coal is the worst climate offender Enlarge Image

Stop climate change

The world's leaders meet at the end of 2009 in Copenhagen to determine the fate of the climate. They could set us on the path to a deep emissions cuts or they could lock the planet into catastrophic, irreversible climate change.

Temperature change 1765-2100: Graph excerpted from the IPCC's Third Assessment Report showing past and predicted changes to global temperature. Enlarge Image

Science

Climate change is a reality. Today, our world is hotter than it has been in two thousand years. By the end of the century, if current trends continue, the global temperature will likely climb higher than at any time in the past two million years. While the end of the 20th century may not necessarily be the warmest time in Earth's history, what is unique is that the warmth is global and cannot be explained by the natural mechanisms that explain previous warm periods. There is a broad scientific consensus that humanity is in large part responsible for this change, and that choices we make today will decide the climate of the future.

The specks on ice are explorers Lonnie Dupre and Eric Larsen, setting off on the first ever unsupported summer crossing of the Arctic Ocean in order to draw attention to global warming. Enlarge Image

Climate research

It was realised by the mid-18th century that some gases in the Earth's atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide, trap heat and keep the Earth warm. At the start of the 20th century, a Swedish scientist named Svante Arrhenius put forward the idea that human emissions of carbon dioxide would eventually raise temperatures. He didn't see this as a particularly bad thing, and most scientists at the time were sceptical that humans could burn fossil fuels fast enough to have a noticeable impact at all.

Carbon dioxide emissions and the carbon cycle. Enlarge Image

CO2 emissions

The primary human source of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is from the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transport. Changes in land use and deforestation also contribute significantly. Trees, for example, are natural 'carbon sinks' - they absorb carbon dioxide while alive and when they are destroyed, carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, most of the carbon dioxide stays there for 50 to 200 years, and some of it stays there indefinitely.

Flooded village in southern France, close to a nuclear power station. Earlier in 2003 the same area experienced a long drought. Climate change means more extreme weather like flooding and droughts. Enlarge Image

Impacts

No one knows how much warming is "safe". What we do know is that climate change is already harming people and ecosystems. Its reality can be seen in melting glaciers, disintegrating polar ice, thawing permafrost, dying coral reefs, rising sea levels, changing ecosystems and fatal heat waves. And it is not only scientists that are witnessing these changes. From Inuit in the far north to islanders near the equator - people are already struggling with the impacts of climate change.

Bleached coral, Great Barrier Reef. Effects of climate change. Enlarge Image

Habitat loss

"Most of the world's endangered species -- some 25 percent of mammals and 12 percent of birds -- may become extinct over the next few decades as warmer conditions alter the forests, wetlands, and rangelands they depend on, and human development blocks them from migrating elsewhere." -- UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Sandstorms originating from the Mongolian desert can reach as far as Japan. Each year, volunteers from Japan come to plant trees in Western China. Enlarge Image

Health, food and water

Heat waves attributable in part to climate change are forecast to kill hundreds of thousands in this century, however climate change will also have disastrous effects on water supplies, agriculture, and the spread of disease. Rich and poor alike will be affected, but countries that are already struggling to provide food and water for their people will suffer the most.

Pita Meanke, of Betio village, stands beside a tree as he watches the 'king tides' crash through the sea wall into his family's property, on the South Pacific island of Kiribati. Enlarge Image

Sea level rise

"The Maldives is one of the small states. We are not in a position to change the course of events in the world. But what you do or do not do here will greatly influence the fate of my people. It can also change the course of world history." -- Statement by H.E. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (Maldives) Kyoto, Japan, 3rd Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC

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