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Some of the most profound and direct impacts of climate change
over the next few decades will be on agriculture and food systems
(Brown and Funk 2008). All quantitative assessments show that
climate change will adversely affect food security (Schmidhuber and
Tubiello 2007).
Increasing temperatures, declining and more unpredictable rainfall, more frequent extreme weather and higher severity of pest and disease are among the more drastic changes that would impact food production (Parry et al. 2007, Kotschi 2007, Morton 2007, Brown and Funk 2008, Lobell et al. 2008). However, global trends mask tremendous regional differences, with the poorest being most at risk both by global climate variations and global commodity price fluctuations (Diaz et al. 2006). Some of the most important effects of global climate change will be felt among smallholder farmers, predominantly in developing countries (Morton 2007).
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report predicts the probability of more heat waves, heavy rainfall, droughts and other extreme weather throughout the 21st century (Parry et al. 2007).
Warming in the Indian Ocean and an increasingly “El Niño–like” climate could reduce main-season precipitation across most of Africa, East and South Asia, and Central and South America (see Figure 1) (Brown and Funk 2008).
It has been shown that by 2080, the 40 poorest countries, located predominantly in tropical Africa and Latin America, could lose 10 to 20 percent of their basic grain growing capacity due to drought (Kotschi 2007). The biggest problem for food security will be the predicted increase in extreme weather, which will damage crops at particular developmental stages and make the timing of farming more difficult, reducing farmers’ incentives to cultivate (Morton 2007).
Increasing temperatures, declining and more unpredictable rainfall, more frequent extreme weather and higher severity of pest and disease are among the more drastic changes that would impact food production (Parry et al. 2007, Kotschi 2007, Morton 2007, Brown and Funk 2008, Lobell et al. 2008). However, global trends mask tremendous regional differences, with the poorest being most at risk both by global climate variations and global commodity price fluctuations (Diaz et al. 2006). Some of the most important effects of global climate change will be felt among smallholder farmers, predominantly in developing countries (Morton 2007).
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report predicts the probability of more heat waves, heavy rainfall, droughts and other extreme weather throughout the 21st century (Parry et al. 2007).
Warming in the Indian Ocean and an increasingly “El Niño–like” climate could reduce main-season precipitation across most of Africa, East and South Asia, and Central and South America (see Figure 1) (Brown and Funk 2008).
It has been shown that by 2080, the 40 poorest countries, located predominantly in tropical Africa and Latin America, could lose 10 to 20 percent of their basic grain growing capacity due to drought (Kotschi 2007). The biggest problem for food security will be the predicted increase in extreme weather, which will damage crops at particular developmental stages and make the timing of farming more difficult, reducing farmers’ incentives to cultivate (Morton 2007).
| Authors: | Janet Cotter and Reyes Tirado |
|---|---|
| Date published: | 01 December 2008 |
| Format: | Adobe PDF |
| Number of pages: | 8 |
| ISBN: | |
| Size: | 336 Kb |
