It is no longer acceptable to continue as we have done for the last couple of hundred years, because it is unsustainable.  A huge environmental, economic and social cost has been paid for the use of conventional energy sources; smoke from coal and fumes from oil have poisoned the air, choked cities and the emission of greenhouse gases is inexorably warming the planet; nuclear waste and accidents have killed humans and wildlife and polluted the air, land and sea.  In addition, a huge inequity currently exists between those who have more than enough energy, and waste most of it, and those who have none.  In the 21st century, it is as unacceptable as it is unsustainable that over 1.6 billion people have no access to basic energy services.

 

Today, further dimensions of concern arise.  Security of energy supplies is a major issue;  as fossil fuel and nuclear resources are finite and, as resources dwindle and prices rise, so competition intensifies, increasing the potential for military conflict.  In addition, the use of nuclear power has always holds the potential for increasing the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Decisions about energy supplies and infrastructure require extremely careful consideration and clear policy measures because of the large amount of capital investment needed and the long lifetimes of energy systems.  In other words, the policy decisions made today will determine the type of development pathway down which a government will take its people. The key question is whether this path is sustainable or not.

The reality is that energy choices are not made in isolation from geopolitical debates that happen globally, regionally and nationally, neither are they made based on real free market economics and market value, otherwise nuclear power would have died out long ago.  The choices made relate to issues of international and regional security as well as environmental sustainability.  These issues need to factor and be incorporated into policy measures for choosing a path to a sustainable energy future.

The Middle East is a unique region and is obviously significant in terms of the global energy debate.  In fact, for much of the last century the geo-political history of the region has been forged around access to and control over energy resources.  Political instability remains a key factor in the region, with hydrocarbon resources still playing a definitive role.

The Middle East is a region comprised of countries that are at varying stages of development, with many countries having large populations of poor people, both urban and rural.  The region as a whole is developing, with the population predicted to reach 350 million by 2050. In order to satisfy a desire for economic growth based on business as usual there will be a massive increase in energy production and consumption.

However, continuing and increasing economic growth does not necessarily require a massive increase in energy consumption.  Countries in the Middle East have not just been blessed with an abundance of conventional energy sources, but all have an abundance, though varying amounts, of renewable sources such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydro.

While there is some broad consensus that globally there is an urgent need to change the manner in which energy is produced, distributed and consumed, there remains a large disagreement about how to do this.

In the Energy [R]evolution - A pathway to a sustainable clean energy future for the Middle East, Greenpeace present two scenarios. One is the ‘Reference Scenario’ that shows an energy future based on existing policies; it is essentially a ‘business as usual’ scenario.  The second is an Energy [R]evolution Scenario where, with the right policy decisions, investments, support, encouragement and political vision, the region and the world could move to a truly sustainable energy system based upon renewable energy technologies, decentralised distribution networks and huge energy efficiency savings.  An Energy [R]evolution Scenario which supports economic growth, but divorces it from energy consumption.

Scenarios are not predictions; nevertheless, they are important in describing possible development paths and they provide decision-makers with an overview of future perspectives and indicate how different policy decisions can shape the future energy system.

The Energy [R]evolution shows that if governments take the necessary policy decisions to create a favourable market framework and incentives, then by 2050 it is possible to have 50% of energy supply provided by means of renewable energy technologies, decentralised energy systems and energy efficiency programmes. Achieving this does not require major technological breakthroughs, but it does require political will, vision and initiative.  Such decisions will take a nation on a trajectory that leads to a truly sustainable energy future.

The global threat of climate change, the huge environmental, economic and social damage caused by conventional fuel sources, the need for secure, stable and reliable energy sources and the demand for fair access to all to the benefits provided by energy services require a total rethink of our energy supply, distribution and consumption.  This scenario presents ambitious but achievable policy measures that can move the region towards a sustainable energy future.

The Energy [R]evolution is aimed at governments and policy makers, at the international financial institutes, at the energy industry and to help convince them to choose a sustainable energy future.

Download and continue reading the report's executive summary.

A full copy of the Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook and the regional scenarios can be downloaded at: http://www.greenpeace.org/