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International report reveals: Fossil fuel costs will triple, nuclear sources will run out; Turkey must go renewable now
![Greenpeace launches a Global Energy [R]evolution scenario in Turkey ,
for the future energy system of the world. This, in order to remind
Turkish Energy Minister, Hilmi Guler, the real meaning of ‘sustainable
development’.](/raw/image_big_teaser/mediterranean/photosvideos/photos/greenpeace-launches-a-global-e.jpg)
Greenpeace launches a Global Energy [R]evolution scenario in Turkey , for the future energy system of the world. This, in order to remind Turkish Energy Minister, Hilmi Guler, the real meaning of ‘sustainable development’.
Enlarge Image“The Energy Revolution scenario comes as the world is crying out for a roadmap for tackling the dilemma of how to provide the power we all need, without fuelling climate change,” said Sven Teske, energy expert of Greenpeace International. “We have shown that the world can have safe, robust renewable energy, that we can achieve the efficiencies needed and we can do all this whilst enjoying global economic growth and phasing out damaging and dangerous sources such as coal and nuclear, “he continued. “Renewable energies are competitive, if governments phase-out subsidies for fossil and nuclear fuels and introduce the `polluter-pays principle`. We urge politicians to ban those subsidies by 2010.”
Turkey is rapidly expanding its energy system without any detailed consideration of the future conventional energy costs and any attention to the environmental costs that will never be paid back. New feed-in tariffs are planned to be established for the most dangerous centralized sources of electricity such as coal and nuclear power. The decisions taken now will effect Turkey’s economy and environment for half a century as the energy system requires long term investments.
Hilal Atici, Greenpeace Mediterranean Energy and Climate campaigner said: “Turkey is one of the luckiest countries in the world with a huge renewable energy and energy efficiency potential. Today, we are one of the worst countries amongst OECD countries with regard to energy efficiency and intensity (energy produced per one unit GDP output). A Turkish investment in energy efficiency can mean an opportunity for Turkey to stabilize our energy demand. Turkey can rapidly build an infrastructure based on renewable energy and decentralized energy as the cost of wind, geothermal and solar will be more competitive compared to the other regions of the world. However it is up to the Energy Minister at this crossroads we now reach to choose either to stay in the old-school concept of unsustainable development or to go beyond that and make Turkey a leader of the modern renewable energy technologies in the region and in the world. Greenpeace wants to help him find out that the right way is possible, despite the fact that for the past four years he is being blinded by the lobbies of all possible negative energy lobbies.”
The report was developed in conjunction with specialists from the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and more than 30 scientists and engineers from universities, institutes and the renewable energy industry around the world. It provides the first comprehensive global energy concept which gives a detailed analysis of how to restructure the global energy system based only on a detailed regional assessment for the potential of proven renewable energy sources, energy efficiency and the utilisation of efficient, decentralised cogeneration. The Energy [R]evolution scenario is compared in the report to the effects on CO2 emissions (creating climate change) of carrying on with a ‘business as usual’ scenario, that scenario being provided by the International Energy Association’s breakdown of 10 world regions, as used in the ongoing series of World Energy Outlook reports.
The Energy [R]evolution scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply, within a single generation. Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the ‘business as usual’ scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a, and a quadrupling of electricity costs. This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for developing a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
1. The report was commissioned by Greenpeace and EREC from the Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics) at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR).
2. The report develops a global sustainable energy pathway up to 2050. The future potential for renewable energy sources has been assessed with input from all sectors of the renewable energy industry around the world, and forms the basis of the Energy [R]evolution Scenario.
3. The energy supply scenarios adopted in this report, which both extend beyond and enhance projections by the International Energy Agency, have been calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model. This has then been further developed by the Ecofys consultancy to take into account the future potential for energy efficiency measures.
4. The Energy [R]evolution Scenario describes a development pathway which transforms the present situation into a sustainable energy supply through the following mechanisms:
• Exploitation of the large energy efficiency potential will reduce primary energy demand from the current 435,000 PJ/a (Peta Joules per year) to 422,000 PJ/a by 2050. Under the reference scenario there would be an increase to 810,000 PJ/a. This dramatic reduction is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.
• The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) also improves the supply system’s energy conversion efficiency, increasingly using natural gas and biomass. In the long term, decreasing demand for heat and the large potential for producing heat directly from renewable energy sources limits the further expansion of CHP.
• The electricity sector will be the pioneer of renewable energy utilisation. By 2050, around 70% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources, including large hydro. An installed capacity of 7,100 GW will produce 21,400 Terawatt hours per year (TWh/a) of electricity in 2050.
• In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will increase to 65% by 2050. Fossil fuels will be increasingly replaced by more efficient modern technologies, in particular biomass, solar collectors and geothermal.
• Before biofuels can play a substantial role in the transport sector, the existing large efficiency potentials have to be exploited. In this study, biomass is primarily committed to stationary applications; the use of biofuels for transport is limited by the availability of sustainably grown biomass.
• By 2050, half of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.
