The permafrost zone comprises over 60% of Russian territory.
Over the past fifteen years, the area whose climate is favourable
for permafrost has shrunk by about a third. Temperature rise as a
result of global climate change leads to the degradation of
centuries-old permafrost soils. This has the potential to become an
economic, geopolitical and social problem of a national scale.
The report, authored by the leading Russian and world experts in
cryology (permafrost science) and climate science, estimates the
social and economic consequences of permafrost degradation, and
identifies the most vulnerable areas and infrastructure.
"Projected changes in permafrost present a serious danger for
the Russian economy, particularly because of a rising risk of
damage to the infrastructure of the Far North. There are no
accurate quantitative estimates of this potential damage yet, and
no adequate economic methods to arrive at these estimates" - said
the leading author of the report, Dr Oleg Anisimov, Dr Oleg
Anisimov (Russian State hydrology institute, St. Petersburg),
participant of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
According to the scientists' observations, the number of
accidents with infrastructure at permafrost zone has grown in the
past 20 years. As temperatures rise and soil thaws, pile-buildings
become less reliable, so dwellings, bridges, and pipelines deform
and collapse.
At the oil wells in Khanty-Mansiysk district, an average of 1900
accidents a year happens as a result of thawing permafrost. In West
Siberia, 7400. So the country spends an annual 55 bn roubles on
maintenance of pipelines and repair of damage related to permafrost
thaw.
The geopolitical aspect of the problem is equally important.
Annually, in East Siberia Russia loses over 10 square km of coastal
land, which adds up to 30 sq km a year throughout the Arctic. With
global climate changes these processes only will amplify.
The report includes not only estimates of evident impacts of
climate change in the Russian North, but also predicts dangers for
the short-term future. The scientists have put together detailed
maps showing the main danger zones and infrastructure objects at
risk of damage and destruction (2).
"An additional danger of the permafrost thaw is the release of a
greenhouse gas far more powerful than СО2: methane. In thaw lakes
of West Siberia there are sites of concentrated emissions of gas,
where it literally bursts in bubbles from under the thawed surface.
And the more intensive the thaw, the more methane in the
atmosphere. The literature calls this "the methane threat"" - said
Dr Sergey Kirpotin, biologist, vice rector of Tomsk University.
"The quantitative estimates of CO2 and methane release caused by
permafrost degradation need further study. According to the
scientists methane emissions can reach significant values and this
needs to be taken into consideration at the coming Copenhagen
climate change conference", - said Vladimir Chuprov, Greenpeace
Russia energy Campaigner.
Apart from the permafrost thaw, Russia suffers from many other
impacts of climate change. They are documented in the photo album
100 Months which Greenpeace also plans to submit to the Russian
authorities. It is possible to slow down climate change (and the
permafrost thaw), according to Greenpeace. Russia can significantly
reduce energy use and become a world leader in the fight against
climate change. It is possible if it gives up its development model
based on the fossil-fuel, realizes its energy saving potential
(about 40% of current total use) and goes to renewable energy
sources.
Notes for editors:
1. The report "Major natural and social-economic consequences of
climate change in the permafrost region: predictions based on
observations and modeling" can be found here
(Russian).
2. The permafrost zone provides around 93% of the current
Russian gas extraction and 75% of the oil, which makes around 70%
of the national total exports. According to the less optimistic
scenarios, the zone of significant damage will include the Nenets
Autonomous Area (including Novaya Zemlya), west and south-west
parts of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Area (including Surgut and
Nizhnevartovsk), the northern part of Yamal Peninsula (including
Bovanenkovskoye oil reserve), central Buryatiya (including the
capital city Ulan-Ude), practically all of Chukotka, and Taimyr
coast line. The largest reserves of oil and gas and thousands of
kilometers of oil and gas pipelines are in the high-risk zone.
3. Russian Deputy Minister for Emergencies Ruslan Tsalikov said
in a statement in June 2008: "By 2030, the damage from global
warming may become catastrophic. Up to a fourth of the dwellings in
the North of the country is at risk of destruction."
4. Cost of works of a zero cycle of building (preparation of a
platform for capital construction and a base bookmark) in the
conditions of permafrost degradation can increase by 3 % - 56 % at
the expense of additional actions for thermostabilization.
5. To see
the album 100 Months
Contact:
+7 495 988 74 60, Greenpeace Russia;
+7 903 129 46 51, Vladimir Chuprov