"[The world has] already reached the level of dangerous concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere...Climate change is for real. We have just a small window of opportunity and it is closing rather rapidly. There is not a moment to lose"
- Dr Rajendra Pachauri
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
According to the World Health
Organization climate change impacts are already claiming around 160,000
human lives globally every year, through, for example, extreme weather,
disease and malnutrition . The WHO and London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Diseases predict this number could double by 2020.
On 7th January 2004, in Nature, nineteen eminent biological scientists
published the findings of a study concluding that global warming could
‘commit to extinction’ between 18% and 35% of animal and plant species
by 2050 based on the seven globally representative regional samples
they studied. This means that, by 2050, even under ‘minimal climate
warming scenarios’ (meaning those that are now inevitable) nearly one
in five (around a million) species could be beyond saving. They
concluded that “anthropogenic climate warming at least ranks alongside
other recognized threats to global biodiversity. Contrary to previous
projections, it is likely to be the greatest threat in many if not most
regions.”
Woman drinks water to cool off on Tiananmen Square. During the summer a heat wave gripped northern China with temperatures reaching 47 degrees Celsius.
Feeling the heat
The 1990s were the hottest decade ever recorded in the Northern
Hemisphere. Seventeen of the twenty hottest years ever have occurred
since 1980 and nine of the ten hottest since 1995. The years 1998,
2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 are the five hottest years on record globally
.
While 1998 was the hottest year ever, some of the highest point
temperatures ever recorded occurred during 2003 . Heat waves struck
China and India in 2003. In India records were broken as the
temperature hit 49 degrees C and at least 1500 people died as a result
. In Europe, during 2003, heat waves, droughts and forest fires is
estimated to have killed over 30,000 people and caused over US$13
billion damage to European agriculture alone .
Rising waters
But climate change is not just about hotter weather. In Asia during
August 2003 the heat waves gave way to typhoons and floods affecting
600,000 people. In China flooding, landslides and Typhoon Dujuan killed
at least 86 people and caused US$700 million reported in losses in
August and early September. Twelve days of heavy rain in the northern
province of Shaanxi led to some of the worst flooding in 40 years for
the region. Approximately 4.9 million people were affected. In
2004 severe flooding returned in eastern and southern China affecting
100 million people and causing more than 1000 deaths .
Greenpeace and scientists are concerned that low lying islands face permanent inundation from rising seas due to climate change.
Recently announced findings conclude that climate change could leave
more than 2 billion people at risk of flood devastation by 2050. Floods
already affect more than 520 million people worldwide and claim around
25,000 lives every year, but the numbers at risk are increasing fast
because of more frequent extreme weather events linked to global
warming. Rising sea levels as polar glaciers melt increases the risks
and deforestation reduces protection in affected areas. Floods in Asia
- the worst-affected continent - between 1987 and 1997 claimed 228,000
lives and caused economic losses of an estimated $ 136bn .
Meanwhile sea levels are rising and threatening coastal areas and low
lying regions – for example Hong Kong and Shanghai. In addition to the
annual rise as oceans expand there is new and alarming evidence that
the polar ice caps are melting faster than previously thought.
Significant melting of the glaciers at the poles could lead to metres
of sea level rise in the long term, inundating vast sections of human
society .
Economic disaster
Climate change is a disaster for the economy too. In 2003 climate
change related damages cost the world economy over $60 billion . After
the European heat wave, the second most costly event of that year was
most likely the floods along the Huai and Yangtze Rivers in China
between July and September 2003. Some 650,000 apartments were damaged
with overall losses estimated at nearly US$ 8 billion .
The reinsurance group Munich Re have studied costs of climate impacts
over the period from the 1950 to the present day and found that the
cost is roughly doubling every decade. If it continues to grow at that
rate, the cost of damage caused by climate change will exceed global
gross domestic product as early as 2065 .
Extreme weather disasters made 2004 the most expensive year for the
insurance industry ever. Statistics released at the COP10 climate
change conference in Buenos Aires in December 2004, showed that natural
disasters across the world in the first 10 months of the year cost the
insurance industry just over $35 billion, up from $16 billion in 2003.
The cost to the global economy was correspondingly greater since these
losses were only what the insurance industry had to pay out.