Map of the Philippines illustrating the impact of sea-level rise in the country's coastlines.
Using the projected global average surface temperature based on six emission scenarios and the rate of thermal expansion of the ocean, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was able to create different model cases of sea level rise by the end of the 21st century. By the year 2090, the projected rise in sea level ranges from at least 0.18 meters to 0.59 meters while 2300 models project a rise that ranges from at least 0.3 meters to 0.8 meters. This projection does not include the partial melting of the Greenland and West Antarctica Ice Sheet which can result to an additional 2 to 4 meters and finally the whole deglaciation which could reach up to a rise of 12 meters in a millennium.
In the Philippines, an indicative one meter rise in sea level is projected to affect 64 out of 81 provinces, at least 703 municipalities, almost 138 million square meters of land.
The areas in the red boxes are the provinces and municipalities that are highly at risk. Most of these areas are either highly urbanized regions, agricultural basins or areas with important economic activities such as, the agricultural areas of Bicol and Cagayan; coastal towns of Capiz; and even the beautiful beaches and mangroves of Northern Palawan. Some islands are so small, they will mostly be submerged in water.
Maps for this project was generated using free and open source software such as GRASS GIS, Mapserver and OpenLayers.
