{"id":60421,"date":"2023-07-07T10:50:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-06T22:50:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/?p=60421"},"modified":"2025-05-20T14:03:13","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T02:03:13","slug":"why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once\/","title":{"rendered":"Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In the past few weeks, climate records have shattered across the globe. July 4 was the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2023-07-05\/hottest-day-ever-globally-recorded\/102563068\">hottest global average day on record<\/a>, breaking the new record set the previous day. Average sea surface temperatures have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencealert.com\/scientists-are-alarmed-as-sea-surface-temperatures-hit-uncharted-territory\">been the highest<\/a> ever recorded and <a href=\"https:\/\/nsidc.org\/arcticseaicenews\/\">Antarctic sea ice extent the lowest<\/a> on record.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp-1024x683.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-58957\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp-1024x683.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp-600x400.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp-510x340.jpeg 510w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp.jpeg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Greenpeace Belgium activists wrap the EU summit venue in Brussels with images of giant flames.<div class=\"credit icon-left\">  \u00a9 Greenpeace \/ Eric de Mildt<\/div><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>Also on July 4, the World Meteorological Organization <a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/world-meteorological-organization-declares-onset-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-conditions\">declared El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> had begun, \u201csetting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns\u201d.<\/p>\n\n<p>So what\u2019s going on with the climate, and why are we seeing all these records tumbling at once?<\/p>\n\n<p>Against the backdrop of global warming, El Ni\u00f1o conditions have an additive effect, pushing temperatures to record highs. This has combined with a reduction in aerosols, which are small particles that can deflect incoming solar radiation. So these two factors are most likely to blame for the record-breaking heat, in the atmosphere and in the oceans.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-it-s-not-just-climate-change\">It\u2019s not just climate change<\/h2>\n\n<p>The extreme warming we are witnessing is in large part due to the El Ni\u00f1o now occurring, which comes on top of the warming trend caused by humans emitting greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2021\/11\/a0417587-g-amazon.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49729\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2021\/11\/a0417587-g-amazon.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2021\/11\/a0417587-g-amazon-600x401.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2021\/11\/a0417587-g-amazon-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2021\/11\/a0417587-g-amazon-510x340.jpg 510w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Alta Floresta, Mato Grosso state. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/climateextremes.org.au\/what-is-el-ninos-impact-on-australias-weather-and-climate\/\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> is declared when the sea surface temperature in large parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean warms significantly. These warmer-than-average temperatures at the surface of the ocean contribute to above-average temperatures over land.<\/p>\n\n<p>The last strong El Ni\u00f1o was in 2016, but we have released <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-global-co2-emissions-from-fossil-fuels-hit-record-high-in-2022\/\">240 billion tonnes of CO\u2082 into the atmosphere<\/a> since then.<\/p>\n\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o doesn\u2019t create extra heat but redistributes the existing heat from the ocean to the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/535953\/original\/file-20230706-27-sf790s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Chart showing rising global average surface temperatures over time, highlighting the cooling influence of La Ni\u00f1a or volcanic eruption versus warming influence of El Ni\u00f1o\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Moderating the trend in global average surface temperature over time (1985\u20132022), La Ni\u00f1a (blue) has a cooling influence, while El Ni\u00f1o has a warming influence (red). Volcanic eruptions (orange triangles) can also have cooling effect. Dana Nuccitelli, using data from Berkeley Earth, author provided<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>The ocean is massive. Water covers 70% of the planet and is able to store vast amounts of heat due to its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/special-topics\/water-science-school\/science\/specific-heat-capacity-and-water\">high specific heat capacity<\/a>. This is why your hot water bottle stays warm longer than your wheat pack. And, why 90% of the excess heat from global warming has been <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/vital-signs\/ocean-warming\/\">absorbed by the ocean<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>Ocean currents circulate heat between the Earth\u2019s surface, where we live, and the deep ocean. During an <a href=\"https:\/\/climateextremes.org.au\/what-is-el-ninos-impact-on-australias-weather-and-climate\/?fbclid=IwAR3jVl0jy4MPVuti0HKWE31uqXc4WU72wU7k2sBq2ef5NxFUIlM-SoXZRus\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean weaken, and the upwelling of cold water along the Pacific coast of South America is reduced. This leads to warming of the upper layers of the ocean.<\/p>\n\n<p>Higher than usual ocean temperatures along the equator were recorded in the first 400m of the Pacific Ocean throughout June 2023. Since cold water is more dense than warm water, this layer of warm water prevents colder ocean waters from penetrating to the surface. Warm ocean waters over the Pacific also lead to increased thunderstorms, which further release more heat into the atmosphere via a process called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/enso\/how-enso-leads-cascade-global-impacts\">latent heating<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>This means that the build up of heat from global warming that had been hiding in the ocean during the past La Ni\u00f1a years is now rising to the surface and demolishing records in its wake.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/535972\/original\/file-20230706-21-smaiie.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Chart showing ocean temperature anomalies along the equator in the Pacific Ocean from 0 to 400 metres deep\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">From the surface to 400 metres deep, the Pacific Ocean along the equator is heating up. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/enso\/wrap-up\/archive\/20230704.sub_surface_anom.png\">Bureau of Meteorology<\/a>, Author provided<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-an-absence-of-aerosols-across-the-atlantic\">An absence of aerosols across the Atlantic<\/h2>\n\n<p>Another factor likely contributing to the unusual warmth is a reduction in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gfdl.noaa.gov\/aerosols-and-climate\/\">aerosols<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>Aerosols are small particles that can deflect incoming solar radiation. Pumping aerosols into the stratosphere is one of the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/solar-geoengineering-might-work-but-local-temperatures-could-keep-rising-for-years-190638\">potential geoengineering methods<\/a> that humanity could invoke to lessen the impacts of global warming. Although stopping greenhouse gas emissions would be much better.<\/p>\n\n<p>But the absence of aerosols can also increase temperatures. A 2008 study concluded that 35% of year-to-year sea surface temperature changes over the Atlantic Ocean in Northern Hemisphere summer could be explained by <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/clim\/21\/19\/2008jcli2232.1.xml\">changes in Saharan dust<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>Saharan dust levels over the Atlantic Ocean have been unusually low lately.<\/p>\n\n<p>On a similar note, new international regulations of sulphur particles in shipping fuels were introduced in 2020, leading to a global reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions (and aerosols) over the ocean. But the long-term benefits of reducing shipping emissions far outweighs the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming\/\">relatively small warming effect<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>This combination of factors is why global average surface temperature records are tumbling.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-are-we-at-the-point-of-no-return\">Are we at the point of no return?<\/h2>\n\n<p>In May this year, the World Meteorological Organization declared a 66% chance of global average temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5\u2103 above pre-industrial levels <a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years\">within the next five years<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"684\" src=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms-1024x684.jpg\" title=\"Christine Rose and another Greenpeace activists hold a banner in flooding of Christine&#039;s local community caused by Cyclone Gabrielle\" alt=\"Christine Rose and another Greenpeace activists hold a banner in flooding of Christine's local community caused by Cyclone Gabrielle\" class=\"wp-image-58473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms-1024x684.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms-600x401.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms-1536x1025.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms-510x340.jpg 510w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/02\/e447e4ea-cyclone-gabrielle-big-oil-big-dairy-big-storms.jpg 2000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Christine Rose and another Greenpeace activists hold a banner in flooding of Christine&#8217;s local community caused by Cyclone Gabrielle<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>This prediction reflected the developing El Ni\u00f1o. That probability is likely higher now, since <a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/world-meteorological-organization-declares-onset-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-conditions\">El Ni\u00f1o has developed<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>It is worth noting that temporarily exceeding 1.5\u2103 does not mean we have reached 1.5\u2103 by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/\">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change standards<\/a>. The latter describes a sustained average global temperature anomaly of 1.5\u2103, rather than a single year, and is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-023-01702-w\">likely to occur in the 2030s<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>This temporary exceedance of 1.5\u2103 will give us an unfortunate preview of what our planet will be like in the coming decades. Although, younger generations may find themselves dreaming of a balmy 1.5\u2103 given current greenhouse emissions policies put us on track for <a href=\"https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/global\/temperatures\/\">2.7\u2103 warming<\/a> by the end of the century.<\/p>\n\n<p>So we are not at the point of no return. But the window of time to avert dangerous climate change is rapidly shrinking, and the only way to avert it is by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-why-coal-use-must-plummet-this-decade-to-keep-global-warming-below-1-5c\/\">severing our reliance on fossil fuels<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/kimberley-reid-767059\">Kimberley Reid<\/a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/monash-university-1065\">Monash University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n<p><em>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once-209214\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-beige-100-background-color has-background has-medium-font-size\">This article\u00a0is a guest post and doesn&#8217;t necessarily represent the views of Greenpeace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the past few weeks, climate records have shattered across the globe. July 4 was the hottest global average day on record, breaking the new record set the previous day. Average sea surface temperatures have been the highest ever recorded and Antarctic sea ice extent the lowest on record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":58957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_planet4_optimize_post_is_variant":false,"_planet4_optimize_experiment_name":"","_planet4_optimize_variant_name":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"p4-page-type":[6],"class_list":["post-60421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-greenpeace","p4-page-type-story"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why are so many climate records breaking all at once?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the past few weeks, climate records have shattered across the globe. July 4 was the hottest global average day on record, breaking the new record set the previous day. Average sea surface temperatures have been the highest ever recorded and Antarctic sea ice extent the lowest on record.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/why-are-so-many-climate-records-breaking-all-at-once\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Greenpeace Aotearoa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/greenpeace.nz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-06T22:50:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-20T02:03:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/03\/7a9fe30c-climate-emergency-gp.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nick Young\" \/>\n<meta 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