{"id":60647,"date":"2023-08-06T07:57:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-05T19:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/?p=60647"},"modified":"2025-06-25T01:39:37","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T13:39:37","slug":"70-years-of-road-based-policies-created-todays-problems-does-nationals-transport-plan-add-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/70-years-of-road-based-policies-created-todays-problems-does-nationals-transport-plan-add-up\/","title":{"rendered":"70 years of road-based policies created today\u2019s problems \u2013 does National\u2019s transport plan add up?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The old joke about \u201cjust one more lane\u201d being all that\u2019s needed to solve traffic congestion has been heard a few times since the National Party released its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.national.org.nz\/speech_national_s_transport_for_the_future_plan\">transport policy<\/a> this week.<\/p>\n\n<p>The plan is nothing if not ambitious: more and bigger roads worth nearly NZ$25 billion over ten years, including a four-lane motorway from Whang\u0101rei to Tauranga at a stated cost of $6 billion.<\/p>\n\n<p>That might sound like a lot, with the cost per kilometre of road being about $20 million. But recent big road projects suggest it could be a significant underestimate.<\/p>\n\n<p>Wellington\u2019s Transmission Gully spans just 27km and cost an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/analysis-taxpayers-in-the-dark-over-final-cost-of-transmission-gully\/L4H226JFRKC4DHNCDMQTXCNRZY\/#:%7E:text=Taxpayers%20still%20don%27t%20know,much%20remains%20to%20be%20seen\">estimated $1.25 billion<\/a> \u2013 that equates to over $46 million per kilometre. The recently opened Ara T\u016bhono (d\ubbed the \u201choliday highway\u201d) from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stuff.co.nz\/national\/300906854\/prime-minister-cuts-ribbon-to-open-aucklands-new-1-billion-motorway\">Puhoi to Warkworth<\/a> north of Auckland cost about $1.05 billion for just 18.5km \u2013 almost $57 million per kilometre.<\/p>\n\n<p>A four-lane motorway between Whangarei and Tauranga would face more challenging terrain than Transmission Gully or Ara T\u016bhono and would span much longer distances.<\/p>\n\n<p>Given the significant cost overruns of recent big roading projects, as well as the time it will take to build these roads, it\u2019s likely the bill will be much more than $6 billion.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-private-versus-public-transport\">Private versus public transport<\/h2>\n\n<p>The opportunity cost of these projects also needs to account for those who don\u2019t \u2013 or don\u2019t want to \u2013 drive a car.<\/p>\n\n<p>National\u2019s proposal calls for scrapping most of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thepost.co.nz\/a\/politics\/350045125\/national-axe-lets-get-wellington-moving-promises-four-lanes-planes\">Let\u2019s Get Wellington Moving<\/a>\u201d project, including a long-planned light rail line. This is on top of the party\u2019s promise that it will axe the proposed Auckland light rail scheme.<\/p>\n\n<p>Both light rail proposals have been a point of contention: National argues that additional motorways and tunnelling in Wellington would be more cost-effective, and tunnelled light rail in Auckland has an enormous price tag.<\/p>\n\n<p>But the transport mode itself is fast, efficient and equitable. A similarly controversial <a href=\"https:\/\/www.smh.com.au\/national\/nsw\/sydney-finally-embraces-cbd-light-rail-as-patronage-surges-20230404-p5cxx3.html\">light rail line in Sydney<\/a> opened a few years ago, with patronage more than doubling in a single year, despite the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n<p>Public transport pollution is far less than that from personal vehicles. Buses and trains produce about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2071-1050\/14\/17\/10652\">80% less carbon emissions<\/a> per passenger kilometre than personal vehicles.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-roads-versus-climate\">Roads versus climate<\/h2>\n\n<p>Around the same time National was releasing its transport policy, July was confirmed to be the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/july-2023-is-hottest-month-ever-recorded-on-earth\/\">hottest month ever on Earth<\/a> (though August could replace that soon).<\/p>\n\n<p>The northern hemisphere is experiencing extreme heatwaves. Some places are reaching the <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/world\/live-news\/global-heat-wave-weather-temperatures-07-18-23\/\">upper limits of human survival<\/a>. In the American southwest, the pavement got so hot people were treated for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/world-news\/2023\/07\/16\/second-degree-burns-heat-dome-us-116-farenheit-california\/\">second-degree burns<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>Records are also breaking around Antarctic sea ice melt, with the most significant deviations from historical averages ever recorded. Wildfires have raged across Canada, Sicily, Algeria and other countries.<\/p>\n\n<p>Human-generated carbon emissions have exacerbated these extremes. Of those emissions, <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/co2-emissions-from-transport\">almost 25% are from the transport sector<\/a>, and passenger transport (cars and light trucks) accounts for about 45% of the sector\u2019s emissions.<\/p>\n\n<p>Given the observable realities of the climate crisis, many have questioned the logic of leaning into road expansion as a policy, especially at the expense of efficient public transport.<\/p>\n\n<p>More roads encourage <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/2014\/06\/wuwt-traffic-induced-demand\/\">more traffic and more driving<\/a>, often leading to even worse congestion. Expanded road networks also encourage development in lower-density areas by making them more accessible, at least in the short term.<\/p>\n\n<p>While this is a selling point in National\u2019s transportation plan, it often leads to more car-dependent development that make <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S136192091830628X\">traffic congestion even worse<\/a>. Combined with National\u2019s proposal to <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nationals-housing-u-turn-promotes-urban-sprawl-cities-and-ratepayers-will-pick-up-the-bill-206762\">build housing in \u201cgreenfields\u201d zones<\/a> away from cities, it risks locking the country into a car-dependent, high-carbon future.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-ev-mirage\">The EV mirage<\/h2>\n\n<p>National leader Christopher Luxon has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nzherald.co.nz\/nz\/nationals-new-transport-policy-laughable-at-best-according-to-labour\/PUPHBLW2MVBHVN6RJ6PQSOGYO4\/\">made the point<\/a> that \u201ceven electric vehicles need adequate roads\u201d. But this begs a bigger question about <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/electric-cars-alone-wont-save-the-planet-well-need-to-design-cities-so-people-can-walk-and-cycle-safely-171818\">relying on EVs<\/a> to solve transport and climate problems.<\/p>\n\n<p>Despite years of generous subsidies, battery-electric vehicles still make up just <a href=\"https:\/\/evdb.nz\/growth-evs-nz\">1.3% of New Zealand\u2019s total fleet<\/a>. This is nowhere near the numbers needed to make a meaningful dent in transport emissions.<\/p>\n\n<p>EVs require the same amount of road space and, due to their increased weight, potentially cause more road damage. But EV owners don\u2019t buy petrol, which means they don\u2019t pay excise tax \u2013 the same tax that pays for expanding roads.<\/p>\n\n<p>Even with inflation around 7%, the excise tax has not increased in more than four years, meaning every year the tax\u2019s purchasing power diminishes.<\/p>\n\n<p>National\u2019s plan to build more roads rather than focus on better public transport is reminiscent of transport policies from the 1950s and 1960s. That era saw the construction of the car-centric cities we now struggle to maintain and move around in.<\/p>\n\n<p>That era also moved us closer to climate disaster, and generally made transport less efficient and less equitable. In hindsight, massive roading infrastructure projects weren\u2019t the solution they might have seemed 70 years ago. But they have at least provided a lesson in what not to do today.<\/p>\n<div class=\"EmptyMessage\">Block content is empty. Check the block&#8217;s settings or remove it.<\/div>\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/timothy-welch-1252494\">Timothy Welch<\/a>, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-auckland-1305\">University of Auckland<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><em>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/70-years-of-road-based-policies-created-todays-problems-does-nationals-transport-plan-add-up-210696\">original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-beige-100-background-color has-background has-medium-font-size\">This article\u00a0is a guest post and doesn&#8217;t necessarily represent the views of Greenpeace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The old joke about \u201cjust one more lane\u201d being all that\u2019s needed to solve traffic congestion has been heard a few times since the National Party released its transport policy&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":60648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_planet4_optimize_post_is_variant":false,"_planet4_optimize_experiment_name":"","_planet4_optimize_variant_name":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[16],"p4-page-type":[6],"class_list":["post-60647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-greenpeace","tag-climate","p4-page-type-story"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>70 years of road-based policies created today\u2019s problems \u2013 does 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