{"id":67104,"date":"2024-11-06T10:21:11","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T21:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/?p=67104"},"modified":"2025-05-20T12:52:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T00:52:03","slug":"weakening-or-collapse-of-a-major-atlantic-current-called-amoc-has-disrupted-nzs-climate-in-the-past-and-could-do-so-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/weakening-or-collapse-of-a-major-atlantic-current-called-amoc-has-disrupted-nzs-climate-in-the-past-and-could-do-so-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Weakening or collapse of a major Atlantic current called AMOC has disrupted NZ\u2019s climate in the past \u2013 and could do so\u00a0again"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-021-01097-4\">assessments<\/a> suggest the ocean current known as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation\">AMOC<\/a>) is slowing down, with <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-023-39810-w\">collapse a real possibility<\/a> this century.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/599456\/original\/file-20240609-21-hjd7pi.JPG?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;rect=0%2C114%2C5472%2C3522&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Glacier by Shaun Eaves, CC BY-SA\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Shaun Eaves, <a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/4.0\/\">CC BY-SA<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>The AMOC is a <a href=\"https:\/\/tos.org\/oceanography\/article\/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point\">globally important current<\/a> in the Atlantic Ocean, where surface water moves northward as part of the Gulf Stream and transports warm water towards the Arctic. There it cools and sinks to return southward as a deep ocean current.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/599442\/original\/file-20240609-21-38hcy2.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Map of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic with a schematic diagram of ocean currents.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Atlantic meridional overturning current (AMOC) transfers heat to the North Atlantic. Recent trends indicate this current may be slowing. Ruijian Gou, <a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/\">CC BY-ND<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>Collapse of the AMOC would have a devastating effect on climate in Europe. Temperatures in the UK and Scandinavia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adk1189\">could drop by 5\u201315\u00b0C in a matter of decades<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>However, because Earth\u2019s climate system is interconnected, these impacts could have a global reach. Our <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.epsl.2024.118802\">new research<\/a> shows past changes in AMOC have had significant impact on temperatures in New Zealand and across the southern hemisphere. These results imply that future collapse of AMOC may accelerate ongoing warming trends.<\/p>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\/* <![CDATA[ *\/\nvar gform;gform||(document.addEventListener(\"gform_main_scripts_loaded\",function(){gform.scriptsLoaded=!0}),document.addEventListener(\"gform\/theme\/scripts_loaded\",function(){gform.themeScriptsLoaded=!0}),window.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){gform.domLoaded=!0}),gform={domLoaded:!1,scriptsLoaded:!1,themeScriptsLoaded:!1,isFormEditor:()=>\"function\"==typeof InitializeEditor,callIfLoaded:function(o){return!(!gform.domLoaded||!gform.scriptsLoaded||!gform.themeScriptsLoaded&&!gform.isFormEditor()||(gform.isFormEditor()&&console.warn(\"The use of gform.initializeOnLoaded() is deprecated in the form editor context and will be removed in Gravity Forms 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gfield--type-choice gfield--width-full field_sublabel_below gfield--no-description field_description_below hidden_label field_validation_below gfield_visibility_visible custom-control\"  data-field-class=\"custom-control\" ><legend class='gfield_label gform-field-label gfield_label_before_complex' >Consent<\/legend><div class='ginput_container ginput_container_checkbox'><div class='gfield_checkbox ' id='input_37_46'><div class='gchoice gchoice_37_46_1'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<input class='gfield-choice-input' name='input_46.1' type='checkbox'  value='Checked' checked='checked' id='choice_37_46_1'   \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<label for='choice_37_46_1' id='label_37_46_1' class='gform-field-label gform-field-label--type-inline'>I am happy to receive email updates from Greenpeace about important campaigns. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/privacy\/?_ga=2.99809942.989746022.1663124527-2085805950.1658956545\" target=\"_blank\">Read our privacy 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true;\n}\n\nif (debug) {\n    console.log(\"\ud83d\udc9a Debug Flag Enabled\");\n}\n\/\/ We will use this later to pass into function\nlet country = \"NZ\";\n\nfunction validationErrors(element, type, customErrorMessage) {\n    if (type == \"phoneLength\") {\n        if (customErrorMessage == \"ok\") {\n            phoneOK = true;\n            $(\"input[class='gform_button button']\").attr(\"disabled\", false);\n            $(\"input[class='gf_phone']\").css(\"border-color\", \"#6f7376\");\n            $(\"div[class='gfield_description validation_message gfield_validation_message phone']\")\n                .text(\"\")\n                .hide()\n            console.log(\"green\");\n        } else {\n            element.attr(\"data-validation-message\", customErrorMessage);\n            phoneOK = false;\n            $(\"input[class='gform_button button']\").attr(\"disabled\", true);\n            $(\"input[class='gf_phone']\").css(\"border-color\", \"red\");\n            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document.querySelector('.gf_phone_country').getElementsByTagName('select')[0].value; \/\/ get input value\n        inputPhoneValidator(inputNumber); \/\/ run asyoutype input validator to update country check\n    });\n\ndocument.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\", (event) => {\n    \/\/ Get all Supported Countries\n    const countryCodes = new libphonenumber.getCountries();\n    \/\/ Get DropDown Element\n    let countrySelectEl = document.querySelector('.gf_phone_country').getElementsByTagName('select')[0];\n\n    \/\/ Populate Dropdown with all supported Country Codes\n    for (var i = 0; i < countryCodes.length; i++) {\n        var opt = countryCodes[i];\n        var el = document.createElement(\"option\");\n        el.textContent = opt;\n        el.value = opt;\n        countrySelectEl.appendChild(el);\n    }\n    if (debug) {\n        console.log(countryCodes);\n    }\n});\n\ndocument.addEventListener(\"submit\", ()=>{\n    var phoneInput = document.querySelector('.gf_phone').lastElementChild.lastElementChild.value;\n    var formattedPhone = formatPhoneNumber(phoneInput);\n    document.getElementsByName(\"input_42\")[0].value = formattedPhone.mobile; \n    document.getElementsByName(\"input_43\")[0].value = formattedPhone.landline; \n    document.getElementsByName(\"input_44\")[0].value = formattedPhone.transformed_phone;\n})\n\n<\/script><\/div><div id=\"field_37_27\" class=\"gfield gfield--type-hidden gfield--width-full gform_hidden field_sublabel_below gfield--no-description field_description_below field_validation_below gfield_visibility_visible\"  ><div class='ginput_container ginput_container_text'><input name='input_27' id='input_37_27' type='hidden' class='gform_hidden'  aria-invalid=\"false\" value='' \/><\/div><\/div><div id=\"field_37_28\" class=\"gfield gfield--type-hidden gfield--width-full gform_hidden field_sublabel_below gfield--no-description field_description_below field_validation_below 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debouncedTriggerPostRender = debounce( function() {            triggerPostRender();        }, 200 );        if ( visibilityTestDiv && visibilityTestDiv.offsetParent === null ) {            const observer = new MutationObserver( ( mutations ) => {                mutations.forEach( ( mutation ) => {                    if ( mutation.type === 'attributes' && visibilityTestDiv.offsetParent !== null ) {                        debouncedTriggerPostRender();                        observer.disconnect();                    }                });            });            observer.observe( document.body, {                attributes: true,                childList: false,                subtree: true,                attributeFilter: [ 'style', 'class' ],            });        } else {            triggerPostRender();        }    } );} ); \n\/* ]]> *\/\n<\/script>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-lessons-from-the-past\">Lessons from the past<\/h2>\n\n<p>Between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, Earth transitioned from peak ice-age conditions to a climate more like today\u2019s. This interval featured rising global temperatures, melting ice sheets and climbing sea levels \u2013 all phenomena associated with present-day climate change.<\/p>\n\n<p>Evidence from ice cores in Greenland and marine sediments in the North Atlantic suggests this natural warming event featured <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pik-potsdam.de\/%7Estefan\/Publications\/Nature\/insight_review.pdf\">several abrupt changes associated with AMOC variability<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p>Using this interval as a natural experiment, we have undertaken research to learn more about how AMOC variability can affect climate in New Zealand.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/598617\/original\/file-20240605-19-n1z2r3.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Two merged photographs show a glacial basin and people among snow-covered rocks.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Evidence preserved in the landscape shows cooling and glacier growth in New Zealand coincided with a strengthening AMOC 14,500 years ago. Huw Horgan, Shaun Eaves, <a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/\">CC BY-ND<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>To reconstruct how air temperature changed in New Zealand, we examined the <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1146\/annurev-earth-063016-020643\">past extent of mountain glaciers<\/a> using evidence preserved in the landscape. Glaciers grow and shrink primarily in response to changing air temperature, which affects the annual balance of snowfall and snow or ice melt. As glaciers change in size, they deposit moraines (rock debris) in the landscape, which can persist for tens of thousands of years.<\/p>\n\n<p>We combined these land-based observations with reconstructions of sea-surface temperature in the Tasman Sea, which we derived from microfossils (smaller than one millimetre in size) known as foraminifera. These microfossils come in a wide range of species and each has a preferred water temperature.<\/p>\n\n<p>We quantified changes in foraminifera species in a core of marine sediment to trace how local temperature in the Tasman Sea has varied through time.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-global-climate-connections\">Global climate connections<\/h2>\n\n<p>Our results show that changes in air and sea-surface temperature followed a similar pattern in the New Zealand region as Earth warmed following the last ice age.<\/p>\n\n<p>Warming began in both air and sea at about 18,000 years ago, followed by a cooling event at about 14,500 years ago \u2013 the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The timing of these changes matches past changes in the AMOC, as <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nature02494\">recorded in geological climate records<\/a> from the North Atlantic region.<\/p>\n\n<p>We examined computer simulations to test the physical connection between changes in the AMOC and New Zealand\u2019s climate. These simulations used a <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Community_Climate_System_Model\">physics-based climate model<\/a> that captures atmospheric and ocean circulation and their interaction.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/598911\/original\/file-20240606-19-ysna1v.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"Outputs from climate models show southern hemisphere temperature changes due to AMOC variability.\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Climate model experiments show the impact of past AMOC variability on surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. Shaun Eaves, <a href=\"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nd\/4.0\/\">CC BY-ND<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>The model simulations support our geological evidence, showing air and sea surface temperatures in New Zealand respond sensitively to changes in AMOC intensity. When the AMOC weakens and Europe cools, New Zealand and the southern mid-latitudes undergo warming, and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n<p>The models also indicate changes in the AMOC are transported rapidly, within decades, to New Zealand via shifting global wind systems. Changes in the AMOC disrupt the temperature gradient between the hemispheres, which is a key control on the strength of westerly wind belts in the southern hemisphere, between the latitudes of 40\u00b0S and 60\u00b0S where New Zealand is.<\/p>\n\n<p>The westerly winds are <a href=\"https:\/\/niwa.co.nz\/sites\/default\/files\/import\/attachments\/sam.pdf\">important for New Zealand\u2019s climate<\/a>. They control the path of atmospheric storms and regional ocean currents.<\/p>\n\n<p>Stronger winds over New Zealand bring regional cooling, as more storms track over the country and warm ocean currents are diverted away from the Tasman Sea into the south Pacific. In contrast, when the AMOC weakens, New Zealand has clearer skies and the Tasman Sea receives more tropical water masses, causing regional warming.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-future-implications\">Future implications<\/h2>\n\n<p>Scientists have identified several \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/global-tipping-points.org\/\">tipping points<\/a>\u201d in Earth\u2019s climate system that may be triggered by human-caused climate change. Once these thresholds are crossed, the consequences cannot be easily undone.<\/p>\n\n<p>Climbing greenhouse gas concentrations have raised air temperatures in New Zealand, and globally, <a href=\"https:\/\/niwa.co.nz\/climate-and-weather\/nz-temperature-record\/seven-station-series-temperature-data\">by about 1.1\u00b0C since the late 19th century<\/a>. Projections suggest New Zealand may end this century <a href=\"https:\/\/environment.govt.nz\/assets\/Publications\/Files\/Climate-change-projections-2nd-edition-final.pdf\">1\u00b0C to 3\u00b0C warmer than now<\/a>. However, these estimates do not include the potential impacts of a future AMOC collapse.<\/p>\n\n<p>Our insights from the recent geological past show this AMOC tipping point has global reach, and could accelerate future warming in New Zealand.<\/p>\n\t\t\t<section\n\t\t\tclass=\"boxout post-61546  sticky-bottom-mobile collapse show\"\n\t\t\tid=\"action-card\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\tdata-ga-category=\"Take Action Boxout\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-ga-action=\"Image\"\n\t\t\t\tdata-ga-label=\"n\/a\"\n\t\t\t\tclass=\"cover-card-overlay\"\n\t\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/petition\/open-letter-oil-exploration-petition\/\" \n\t\t\t><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img\n\t\t\t\t\t\tsrc=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/10\/11c70947-gp0sttfxw_medium_res-1024x683.jpg\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\tsrcset=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/10\/11c70947-gp0sttfxw_medium_res-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/10\/11c70947-gp0sttfxw_medium_res-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/10\/11c70947-gp0sttfxw_medium_res-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/10\/11c70947-gp0sttfxw_medium_res-510x340.jpg 510w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-aotearoa-stateless\/2023\/10\/11c70947-gp0sttfxw_medium_res.jpg 1200w\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\tsizes=\"(min-width: 1000px) 358px, (min-width: 780px) 313px, 88px\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\talt=\"An OMV oil rig off the coast of New Zealand\" title=\"An OMV oil rig off the coast of New Zealand\"\n\t\t\t\t\/>\n            \t\t\t<div class=\"boxout-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"boxout-heading medium\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ga-category=\"Take Action Boxout\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ga-action=\"Title\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\tdata-ga-label=\"n\/a\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/petition\/open-letter-oil-exploration-petition\/\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t\t\tSay no to new oil exploration\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"boxout-excerpt\">Sign the open letter to the oil industry &#8211; We will resist oil exploration<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t                                    <a\n                        class=\"btn btn-primary\"\n                        data-ga-category=\"Take Action Boxout\"\n                        data-ga-action=\"Call to Action\"\n                        data-ga-label=\"n\/a\"\n                        href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/petition\/open-letter-oil-exploration-petition\/\"\n                        \n                    >\n                        Sign on\n                    <\/a>\n                \t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"not-now\"\n\t\t\t\t\trole=\"button\"\n\t\t\t\t\tdata-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n\t\t\t\t\thref=\"#action-card\"\n\t\t\t\t><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/section>\n\t\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/shaun-eaves-1416497\">Shaun Eaves<\/a>, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/te-herenga-waka-victoria-university-of-wellington-1200\">Te Herenga Waka \u2014 Victoria University of Wellington<\/a><\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/andrew-mackintosh-379660\">Andrew Mackintosh<\/a>, Chief Investigator in Antarctic environmental science, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/monash-university-1065\">Monash University<\/a><\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/helen-bostock-1188330\">Helen Bostock<\/a>, Associate Professor in Marine Geology, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/the-university-of-queensland-805\">The University of Queensland<\/a><\/em>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/joel-pedro-91423\">Joel Pedro<\/a>, Palaeoclimatologist<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/weakening-or-collapse-of-a-major-atlantic-current-has-disrupted-nzs-climate-in-the-past-and-could-do-so-again-231266\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"has-beige-100-background-color has-background has-medium-font-size\">This article\u00a0is a guest post and doesn&#8217;t necessarily represent the views of Greenpeace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New research shows past changes in AMOC have had significant impact on temperatures in New Zealand and across the southern hemisphere. These results imply that future collapse of AMOC may accelerate ongoing warming trends.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":67105,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_planet4_optimize_post_is_variant":false,"_planet4_optimize_experiment_name":"","_planet4_optimize_variant_name":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[16,25],"p4-page-type":[6],"class_list":["post-67104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-greenpeace","tag-climate","tag-oceans","p4-page-type-story"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weakening or collapse of a major Atlantic current called AMOC has disrupted NZ\u2019s climate in the past \u2013 and could do so\u00a0again<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/weakening-or-collapse-of-a-major-atlantic-current-called-amoc-has-disrupted-nzs-climate-in-the-past-and-could-do-so-again\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weakening or collapse of a major Atlantic current called AMOC has disrupted NZ\u2019s climate in the past \u2013 and could do so\u00a0again\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"New research shows past changes in AMOC have had significant impact on temperatures in New Zealand and across the southern hemisphere. 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