{"id":76182,"date":"2026-03-19T10:22:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T21:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/?p=76182"},"modified":"2026-03-19T10:22:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T21:22:48","slug":"iran-oil-crisis-why-nzs-car-dependence-is-now-a-strategic-liability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/iran-oil-crisis-why-nzs-car-dependence-is-now-a-strategic-liability\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran oil crisis: why NZ\u2019s car dependence is now a strategic\u00a0liability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n

The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> have sent oil prices past US$100 a barrel \u2013 and Kiwis flocking to fill up. Petrol just hit NZ$3 a litre and some stations have reported running dry<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

In response to about 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply<\/a> being shut off in just a few days, the International Energy Agency announced its largest-ever coordinated reserve release<\/a> of 400 million barrels. But analysts warn oil could reach US$150 a barrel<\/a> if the strait stays closed.<\/p>\n\n

For a country that imports every drop of its petrol, diesel and jet fuel, this is not only a problem, it\u2019s a hard reminder New Zealand has failed to mitigate such strategic vulnerability.<\/p>\n\n

Since Marsden Point stopped refining oil in 2022<\/a>, New Zealand has imported all its refined fuel, mostly from South Korea and Singapore. Those refineries rely on crude oil shipped through the waters now blocked by Iranian drones.<\/p>\n\n

The latest official fuel stocks update<\/a> suggests roughly 52 days of total cover, with less than 33 days of petrol in the country. This buffer was only designed to smooth over short disruptions, not substitute for a prolonged supply crisis.<\/p>\n\n

Motorists are already starting to hoard supplies, with petrol stations in Auckland already selling out of fuel cans<\/a>. Some drivers may well be regretting not having bought an electric vehicle earlier.<\/p>\n\n

Failure to electrify<\/h2>\n\n

New Zealand generates more than 85% of its electricity from renewable sources<\/a> \u2013 rising to a record 96.4%<\/a> in the last quarter of 2025. It has one of the cleanest and most oil-independent electricity systems in the world.<\/p>\n\n

Yet transport, which consumes nearly 40% of all energy in the country<\/a>, remains almost entirely chained to imported oil. Electricity provides just 0.5% of domestic transport energy. It didn\u2019t have to be that way.<\/p>\n\n

For all its imperfections, the Clean Car Discount<\/a> scheme started in 2021 was shifting the needle. Over its life, the scheme put 192,000 rebates<\/a> into the hands of New Zealanders buying cleaner vehicles.<\/p>\n\n

The scheme cost $634 million, leaned on government grants to stay afloat, and had real affordability gaps. But it was doing one thing very well: bringing in more cars with less petrol dependence.<\/p>\n\n

EV fleet growth exceeded 50% per year<\/a> while the scheme operated. When the current government killed it at the end of 2023, that growth collapsed to under 10%. The government is now reportedly considering scrapping the Clean Car Standard<\/a>, the remaining incentive for importing lower fossil fuel-consuming vehicles.<\/p>\n\n

Unaffordable road projects<\/h2>\n\n

The reversal of alternatives to petrol goes further. The government withdrew funding<\/a> for Auckland\u2019s under-25 and children\u2019s fares on public transport. The Transport Choices program<\/a>, which funded walking, cycling and bus improvements across the country, was frozen and then effectively killed.<\/p>\n\n

Planned light rail for Auckland was cancelled<\/a>. And the walking and cycling component of a second Auckland Harbour crossing was stripped out<\/a>, leaving only plans for more car lanes.<\/p>\n\n

Nationally, walking and cycling improvements received roughly $391 million in the current National Land Transport Plan<\/a>, about 1.7% of the fund, while state highway improvements got $6.18 billion.<\/p>\n\n

Seventeen mega-highway projects \u2013 the Roads of National Significance<\/a> \u2013 carry an estimated cost of between $44 billion and $56 billion<\/a>, a figure that keeps climbing. Treasury has warned<\/a> the National Land Transport Fund can cover just under half of the overall projected $120 billion investment pipeline.<\/p>\n\n

Seven of the first eight of those highway projects<\/a> did not have completed business cases when funding decisions were being made. In mid-February, the Infrastructure Commission called the program unaffordable<\/a>. Ten days later, the US and Israel attacked Iran.<\/p>\n\n

Never too late<\/h2>\n\n

Every decade brings an oil shock. Each time, New Zealand could have used the crisis to create policies and plans to wean itself off over-reliance on petrol. Instead, it has waited for prices to settle and gone back to building roads and buying petrol cars.<\/p>\n\n

The country now owns 815 light vehicles for every 1,000 people<\/a>, one of the highest rates in the world. Road transport emissions have grown 82% since 1990<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

New Zealand still has a choice, however. It already powers lights, hospitals and factories with renewable electricity. It could have powered a diverse transport system the same way, and it still can.<\/p>\n\n

Every bus electrified, every cycleway built, every train funded is a direct reduction in exposure to the next crisis. The question now is whether New Zealanders begin to treat their car dependence not as a lifestyle choice but as a strategic liability.<\/p>\n\n

Timothy Welch<\/a>, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil prices past US$100 a barrel \u2013 and Kiwis flocking to fill up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":76061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_planet4_optimize_post_is_variant":false,"_planet4_optimize_experiment_name":"","_planet4_optimize_variant_name":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[16,26,29],"p4-page-type":[6],"class_list":["post-76182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-greenpeace","tag-climate","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-clean-energy","p4-page-type-story"],"yoast_head":"\nIran oil crisis: why NZ\u2019s car dependence is now a 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