{"id":8006,"date":"2020-03-11T16:02:25","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T03:02:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/new-zealand\/?p=8006"},"modified":"2025-05-20T14:19:56","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T02:19:56","slug":"a-rare-natural-phenomenon-brings-severe-drought-to-australia-climate-change-is-making-it-more-common","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/aotearoa\/story\/a-rare-natural-phenomenon-brings-severe-drought-to-australia-climate-change-is-making-it-more-common\/","title":{"rendered":"A rare natural phenomenon brings severe drought to Australia. Climate change is making it more common"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/nicky-wright-978439\">Nicky Wright<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/bethany-ellis-985088\">Bethany Ellis<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/nerilie-abram-293644\">Nerilie Abram<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n<p>Weather-wise, 2019 was a crazy way to end a decade. Fires spread through much of southeast Australia, fuelled by dry vegetation from the ongoing drought and fanned by hot, windy fire weather. <\/p>\n\n<p>On the other side of the Indian Ocean, torrential rainfall and flooding devastated parts of eastern Africa. Communities there now face a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scientificamerican.com\/article\/desert-locust-swarms-continue-to-spread-in-africa-middle-east\/\">locust plague<\/a> and food shortages.<\/p>\n\n<p>These intense events can partly be blamed on the extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate phenomenon that unfolded in the second half of 2019. <\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>\n  <em>\n    <strong>\n      Read more:\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans-132188\">Why drought-busting rain depends on the tropical oceans<\/a>\n    <\/strong>\n  <\/em>\n<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the difference in sea surface temperature on either side of the Indian Ocean, which alters rainfall patterns in Australia and other nations in the region. The dipole is a lesser-known relative of the Pacific Ocean\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n<p>Climate drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, are an entirely natural phenomenon, but climate change is modifying the behaviour of these climate modes.<\/p>\n\n<figure>\n            <iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/J6hOVatamYs?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"\"><\/iframe>\n            \n          <\/figure>\n\n<p>In research published today in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2084-4\">Nature<\/a>, we reconstructed Indian Ocean Dipole variability over the last millennium. We found \u201cextreme positive\u201d Indian Ocean Dipole events like last year\u2019s are historically very rare, but becoming more common due to human-caused climate change. This is big news for a planet already struggling to contain global warming. <\/p>\n\n<p>So what does this new side-effect of climate change mean for the future?<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-indian-ocean-brings-drought-and-flooding-rain\">The Indian Ocean brings drought and flooding rain<\/h2>\n\n<p>First, let\u2019s explore what a \u201cpositive\u201d and \u201cnegative\u201d Indian Ocean Dipole means.<\/p>\n\n<p>During a \u201cpositive\u201d Indian Ocean Dipole event, waters in the eastern Indian Ocean become cooler than normal, while waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than normal. <\/p>\n\n<p>Warmer water causes rising warm, moist air, bringing intense rainfall and flooding to east Africa. At the same time, atmospheric moisture is reduced over the cool waters of the eastern Indian Ocean. This turns off one of Australia\u2019s important rainfall sources. <\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>\n  <em>\n    <strong>\n      Read more:\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/dipole-the-indian-nino-that-has-brought-devastating-drought-to-east-africa-74011\">Dipole: the &#8216;Indian Ni\u00f1o&#8217; that has brought devastating drought to East Africa<\/a>\n    <\/strong>\n  <\/em>\n<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>In fact, over the past century, positive Indian Ocean Dipoles have led to the <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2008GL036801\">worst droughts<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2009GL039902\">bushfires<\/a> in southeast Australia.<\/p>\n\n<p>The Indian Ocean Dipole also has a negative phase, which is important to bring <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans-132188\">drought-breaking rain<\/a> to Australia. But the positive phase is much stronger and has more intense climate impacts.<\/p>\n\n<p>We\u2019ve experienced extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events before. Reliable instrumental records of the phenomenon began in 1958, and since then a string of very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipoles have occurred in 1961, 1994, 1997 and now 2019.<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/318806\/original\/file-20200305-127939-wdkx1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/318806\/original\/file-20200305-127939-wdkx1f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\n              <span class=\"caption\">The Dipole Mode Index is used to track variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole.<\/span>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"license\">Author provided<\/span><\/span>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>But this instrumental record is very short, and it\u2019s tainted by the external influence of climate change. <\/p>\n\n<p>This means it\u2019s impossible to tell from instrumental records alone how extreme Indian Ocean Dipoles can be, and whether human-caused climate change is influencing the phenomenon. <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-diving-into-the-past-with-corals\">Diving into the past with corals<\/h2>\n\n<p>To uncover just how the Indian Ocean Dipole has changed, we looked back through the last millennium using natural records: \u201ccores\u201d taken from nine coral skeletons (one modern, eight fossilised). <\/p>\n\n<p>These coral samples were collected just off of Sumatra, Indonesia, so they\u2019re <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1002\/2015PA002810\">perfectly located<\/a> for us to reconstruct the distinct ocean cooling that characterises positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/318804\/original\/file-20200305-127932-pjjkrc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/318804\/original\/file-20200305-127932-pjjkrc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\n              <span class=\"caption\">Scientists drilling into corals to study past climate. Corals are like trees, and grow a band for every year they live.<\/span>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"source\">Jason Turl<\/span>, <span class=\"license\">Author provided<\/span><\/span>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>Corals grow a lot like trees. For every year they live they produce a growth band, and individual corals can live for more than 100 years. Measuring the oxygen in these growth bands gives us a detailed history of the water temperature the coral grew in, and the amount of rainfall over the reef. <\/p>\n\n<p>In other words, the signature of extreme events like past positive Indian Ocean Dipoles is written in the coral skeleton. <\/p>\n\n<p>Altogether, our coral-based reconstruction of the Indian Ocean Dipole spans 500 years between 1240 and 2019. There are gaps in the timeline, but we have the best picture so far of how exactly the Indian Ocean Dipole has varied in the past.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-unusual-was-the-2019-indian-ocean-dipole-event\">How unusual was the 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole event?<\/h2>\n\n<p>Extreme events like the 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole have historically been very rare. <\/p>\n\n<p>We found only ten extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events in the entire record. Four occurred in the past 60 years, but only six occurred in the remaining 440 years before then. This adds more weight to evidence that positive Indian Ocean Dipole events have been occurring more often in recent decades, and becoming more intense.<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>\n  <em>\n    <strong>\n      Read more:\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/is-australias-current-drought-caused-by-climate-change-its-complicated-97867\">Is Australia&#8217;s current drought caused by climate change? It&#8217;s complicated<\/a>\n    <\/strong>\n  <\/em>\n<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>But another finding from the reconstruction surprised \u2013 and worried \u2013 us. Events like 2019 aren\u2019t the worst of what the Indian Ocean Dipole can throw at us. <\/p>\n\n<p>Of the extreme events we found in our reconstruction, one of them, in 1675, was much stronger than anything we\u2019ve seen in observations from the last 60 years. <\/p>\n\n<p>The 1675 event was around 30\u201340% stronger than what we saw in 1997 (around the same magnitude as 2019). <a href=\"https:\/\/dare.uva.nl\/search?identifier=51ef0ee5-08b4-4a04-8441-2f13a0d47837\">Historical accounts<\/a> from Asia show this event was disastrous, and the severe drought it caused led to crop failures, widespread famine and mortality, and incited war.  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/318808\/original\/file-20200305-127939-19oh95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/318808\/original\/file-20200305-127939-19oh95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\n              <span class=\"caption\">The wiggles that make up 500 years of reconstructed Indian Ocean Dipole variability. The red triangles show when extreme positive events occurred.<\/span>\n              <span class=\"attribution\"><span class=\"license\">Author provided<\/span><\/span>\n            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<p>As far as we can tell, this event shows just how extreme Indian Ocean Dipole variability can be, even without any additional prompting from external forces like human-caused climate change.<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-should-we-care\">Why should we care?<\/h2>\n\n<p>Indian Ocean Dipole variability will continue to episodically bring extreme climate conditions to our region. <\/p>\n\n<p>But <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-018-03789-6\">previous studies<\/a>, as well as ours, have shown human-caused climate change has shortened the gaps between these episodes, and this trend will continue. This is because climate change is causing the western side of the Indian Ocean to warm faster than in the east, making it easier for positive Indian Ocean Dipole events to establish. <\/p>\n\n<p>In other words, drought-causing positive Indian Ocean Dipole events will become more frequent as our climate continues to warm.  <\/p>\n\n<p>In fact, climate model projections indicate extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events will occur <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/drought-in-store-as-el-ninos-western-cousin-to-grow-stronger-27826\">three times more often<\/a> this century than last, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue. <\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>\n  <em>\n    <strong>\n      Read more:\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-world-may-lose-half-its-sandy-beaches-by-2100-its-not-too-late-to-save-most-of-them-132586\">The world may lose half its sandy beaches by 2100. It\u2019s not too late to save most of them<\/a>\n    <\/strong>\n  <\/em>\n<\/p>\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n<p>This means events like last year will almost certainly unfold again soon, and we\u2019re upping the odds of even worse events that, through the fossil coral data, we now know are possible. <\/p>\n\n<p>Knowing we haven\u2019t yet seen the worst of the Indian Ocean Dipole is important in planning for future climate risks. Future extremes from the Indian Ocean will act on top of long-term warming, giving a double-whammy effect to their impacts in Australia, like the record-breaking heat and drought of 2019.<\/p>\n\n<p>But perhaps most importantly, rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-018-03789-6\">limit how often<\/a> positive Indian Ocean Dipole events occur in future.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/133058\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important\"><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: http:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/nicky-wright-978439\">Nicky Wright<\/a>, Research Fellow, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em>; <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/bethany-ellis-985088\">Bethany Ellis<\/a>, PhD Candidate, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/nerilie-abram-293644\">Nerilie Abram<\/a>, Professor; ARC Future Fellow; Chief Investigator for the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/australian-national-university-877\">Australian National University<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/a-rare-natural-phenomenon-brings-severe-drought-to-australia-climate-change-is-making-it-more-common-133058\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"EmptyMessage\">Block content is empty. Check the block&#8217;s settings or remove it.<\/div>\n<p class=\"has-beige-100-background-color has-background has-medium-font-size\">This article\u00a0is a guest post and doesn&#8217;t necessarily represent the views of Greenpeace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weather-wise, 2019 was a crazy way to end a decade. Fires spread through much of southeast Australia, fuelled by dry vegetation from the ongoing drought and fanned by hot, windy fire weather.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":53056,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_planet4_optimize_post_is_variant":false,"_planet4_optimize_experiment_name":"","_planet4_optimize_variant_name":"","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"A rare natural phenomenon brings severe drought to Australia. Climate change is making it more common","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"not set","p4_local_project":"not set","p4_basket_name":"not set","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[16],"p4-page-type":[6],"class_list":["post-8006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-greenpeace","tag-climate","p4-page-type-story"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A rare natural phenomenon brings severe drought to Australia. 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