New Delhi: In a strategic move, the Indian Government put three
high profile faces to release a report on September 2, 2009, saying
the country was doing fine with its Greenhouse Gases, at least
until 2031.
Without actually owning up to the report, 'India's GHG Emissions
Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies', the Union
Government put its weight behind it at the release of the report in
Hotel Ashok.
Present were Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chair of the
Planning Commission; Jairam Ramesh, Union Minister of Environment
and Forests; and Nandan Nilekani, Chair of the Unique Identity
Authority of India.
The three are trusted emissaries of Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh, who virtually handpicked them.
The implication, therefore, was that India was making a pitch
before the December UN summit on climate at Copenhagen, considered
across the world as a critical moment in the battle to slow climate
change.
Ahluwalia released the report, Ramesh presided over the event,
and Nilekani was quaintly described by a government release as
'also present'.
The report is based on five studies, done by the National
Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), a New Delhi-based
think tank; the Kolkata-based Jadavpur University; the New
Delhi-based The Energy Research Institute (TERI); McKinsey &
Company, a global management consulting firm; and the New
Delhi-based think tank Integrated Research and Action for
Development (IRADe).
The report says broadly the following.
- India's per capita emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) will
continue to be low until 2030-31.
- So low that it would be less than the 2005 per capita global
emission of GHG.
- India's per capita GHG emissions in 2030-31 would be between
2.77 tonnes and 5 tonnes of CO2e (Carbon Dioxide equivalent).
- In 2031, India's per capita GHG emissions would stay under 4
tonnes of CO2e. (Four of the five studies say this.)
- This is lower than the global per capita emissions of 4.22
tonnes of CO2e in 2005.
- This would mean that even 20 years from now, India's per capita
GHG emissions would be below the global average of 25 years
earlier.
- In absolute terms, estimates of India's GHG emissions in 2031
vary from 4bn tones to 7.3bn tones of CO2e.
- Even two decades from now, India's GHG emissions will remain
under 6 billion tones. (Four of the five studies say this.)
However, Greenpeace India, had following to say in its reaction
to the Report.
Vinuta Gopal, Climate Campaigner, Greenpeace India, said:
"India's projected GHG trajectory, as has been presented, is in
complete contradiction with the various statements made by the
Prime Minister and the Environment Minister of putting India on a
sustainable, low carbon development pathway.
This study indicates that India is willing to take the risk of
climate change endangering millions of its own people, especially
its poor. If we took this study to indicate the government's
climate policy, we would have to think that the government is not
serious in implementing the plans envisaged under the National
Action Plan on Climate Change, and in working out a detailed
emission reduction trajectory for the country.
In the crucial last days before the climate summit in Copenhagen
in December this year, India would have shown climate leadership if
it had articulated a desire to adopt a low carbon emission
trajectory as it did with the ambitious solar mission.
India is in a position to morally demand that the developed
world provide finance and technology support to help us do this. We
need from Manmohan Singh, a visionary plan that will ensure that we
still have the Ganges, have saved our farmers from frequent floods
and droughts, and not created millions of climate refugees, but a
decarbonised, sustainable and growth path that is inclusive and
ensures climate justice for its people."