We're almost at the half-way point in this marathon of climate negotiations here in Bali, but the first week's progress has been paltry. With recognition of climate change as the single biggest threat to this planet at an all-time high, with scientists being more sure than ever as to the drivers of climate change, and with solutions all around us, one would think that the difficult work has already been done. Not so, based on my observations at Bali this week.
In fact, after a week of discussions by more than 100 governments, all we really have is bureaucrats revealing their negotiating positions, plus lots of posturing.
On whether industrialized countries should set emissions targets in line with the science (a substantial 30% reduction in emissions by 2020), there's no consensus.
By Gavin, climate campaign leader, Bali
On whether developing countries should set binding targets for things like energy efficiency and renewable energy, again there's no consensus.
On whether emissions from deforestation should be tackled, there is much murmuring, but there’s no consensus on whether this should be done without undermining emissions reductions from fossil fuel burning (it’s not an either or: we need both!).
On whether the west will give access to the funds needed to adapt to a changing climate and provide easy access to clean technology for developing countries, there is consensus from developing countries. But the developed countries who have caused most of the problem of climate change to date don’t yet agree.
Add all this up and what we essentially have is little progress in week one, and a massive homework assignment for ministers when they arrive in week two. If I was a minister I’d be wondering what the hell my top bureaucrats have been doing all week.
Add all this up and what we essentially have is little progress in week one, and a massive homework assignment for ministers when they arrive in week two. If I was a minister I’d be wondering what the hell my top bureaucrats have been doing all week.
It's not all bad though. China has been more constructive than most. Small Island states (the ones most threatened by climate change) are getting understandably very impatient. But the nonsense we hear from countries like the US, Canada & Japan more than cancels this out.
It’s not good enough. Not by a long way.
Unlike bureaucrats, the Ministers arriving in the next days are more answerable to the public for climate change. The latest election result in Australia is proof that inaction on climate costs valuable votes.
So today, a Global Day of Action is underway in dozens of countries, with people around the world taking the streets to demand results. I myself joined a rally in Denpasar, where hundreds of Balinese and Indonesian NGO's and their volunteers along with people attending the climate negotiations rallied in the centre of town.
We were joined by the crew of the Rainbow Warrior, who'd recently stopped off in the Sunderban Islands in India on their way to Bali. There they met community leaders to discuss the very real impacts of their low-lying, weather-prone islands in the face of climate change. The captain and crew also spent the day alongside islanders planting mangrove forests to try and protect them from future extreme weather. The islanders also left their handprints on a large banner, and so the crew bought that banner to Bali, along with the islanders' message.
It's time for climate action now, and for the ministers who will arrive to show the kind of urgency that the people of the Sunderban’s feel. Anything less than is simply unthinkable.