{"id":44272,"date":"2020-10-29T10:38:34","date_gmt":"2020-10-29T14:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/?p=44272"},"modified":"2020-10-29T10:40:23","modified_gmt":"2020-10-29T14:40:23","slug":"trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-no-longer-needed-new-expert-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/press-release\/44272\/trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-no-longer-needed-new-expert-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Trans Mountain pipeline expansion no longer needed: new expert report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

VANCOUVER – <\/strong>The assumptions underlying the federal government\u2019s $12.6 billion commitment to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project (TMX) no longer stand up in 2020, according to a new report from veteran earth scientist David Hughes.<\/p>\n\n

Reassessment of Need for the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project<\/em>, released today by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, BC Office as part of the Corporate Mapping Project, evaluates recent developments, including new production forecasts, announced expansions of existing pipelines, cost inflation, and prices in US and Asian markets. The report concludes that TMX, if completed, would be surplus to Canadian requirements and would not result in the hoped-for price premium for Canadian producers.<\/p>\n\n

\u201cThe federal government\u2019s claim that TMX must be built to increase export capacity and the profitability of Canadian oil producers is simply not credible,\u201d says Hughes. \u201cAnnounced expansions of existing pipelines including the Enbridge Mainline, along with completion of Enbridge\u2019s Line 3 in 2021, will create more than enough pipeline export capacity for Canadian oil producers through 2030, and through 2040 and beyond if some of Western Canada\u2019s rail capacity is used.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

Contrary to claims that bringing heavy oil to tidewater for export to Asia will fetch a higher price than US markets, the report estimates that it will instead result in a loss<\/em> of $4-$6 per barrel or more. This loss results from higher transportation costs and lower market prices due to a lack of heavy oil refining capacity in Asia compared to the US, which has more than half of the world\u2019s capacity. Most heavy oil shipped on the existing Trans Mountain pipeline from the Burnaby terminal now goes to the US West Coast.<\/p>\n\n

The COVID-19 pandemic has also caused an unprecedented drop in short-term oil demand and soured the long-term outlook for oil producers. The International Energy Agency recently concluded that oil demand will peak in the coming decade and oil giant BP believes that demand already peaked in 2019.<\/p>\n\n

Hughes notes the arguments for TMX look even worse in the context of Canada\u2019s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050.<\/p>\n\n

\u201cEven with an 80 per cent emissions reduction target by 2050, the current production forecast of the Canada Energy Regulator would result in emissions of the oil and gas sector alone exceeding the 2050 target by 101 per cent. If Alberta\u2019s 100 megatonne cap on oil sands emissions is implemented, the 2050 target would be exceeded by 81 per cent,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n

TMX will exacerbate Canada\u2019s emissions reduction problem by incentivizing additional oil production growth, Hughes says.<\/p>\n\n

The $12.6 billion taxpayer dollars committed to TMX would be better spent directly on emissions reduction. As it stands Canada has no viable plan for even meeting the 2030 Paris Agreement target let alone the federal government\u2019s promise of net-zero emissions by 2050, he explains, adding that the government claim that building TMX is necessary to provide funds to reduce emissions is not credible.<\/p>\n\n

\u201cEven with existing production forecasts, the project is not needed and will not result in increased profitability for producers. Canada urgently needs a viable energy strategy to meet both the future energy security needs of Canadians and its emissions reduction commitments,\u201d says Hughes.<\/p>\n\n

For more information and to arrange interviews, please contact:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

Trish Hennessy, CCPA National Office, 416-525-4927, <\/strong>trish@policyalternatives.ca<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n

Jean Kavanagh, CCPA BC Office, 604-802-5729, <\/strong>jean@policyalternatives.ca<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The assumptions underlying the federal government\u2019s $12.6 billion commitment to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project (TMX) no longer stand up in 2020, according to a new report from veteran earth scientist David Hughes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":44268,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"not set","p4_local_project":"not set","p4_basket_name":"not set","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[23,29,32],"p4-page-type":[14],"class_list":["post-44272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-climate","tag-indigenous","tag-oil","p4-page-type-press-release"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44272","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44272"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44272\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44274,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44272\/revisions\/44274"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44268"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44272"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44272"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44272"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/canada\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=44272"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}