{"id":12183,"date":"2020-11-13T10:05:06","date_gmt":"2020-11-13T09:05:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/?p=12183"},"modified":"2021-12-01T13:31:07","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T12:31:07","slug":"reakce-organizaci-greenpeace-hnuti-duha-calla-a-cde-ke-studii-mckinsey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/tiskova-analyza\/12183\/reakce-organizaci-greenpeace-hnuti-duha-calla-a-cde-ke-studii-mckinsey\/","title":{"rendered":"Reakce organizac\u00ed Greenpeace, Hnut\u00ed DUHA, Calla a CDE ke studii McKinsey"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/cz\/~\/media\/mckinsey\/locations\/europe%20and%20middle%20east\/czech%20republic\/our%20work\/decarbonization_report_cz_vf.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0pBB_vlyN_HJDaCCPH4SwgtCtv1XOVmE6vLwuJbogEGXgqjeanws_rOnw\">Studie<\/a> \u010desk\u00e9 pobo\u010dky mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konzulta\u010dn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti McKinsey &amp; Company se zam\u011b\u0159uje na n\u00e1kladov\u011b efektivn\u00ed cesty k dekarbonizaci \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kdy\u017e jako prvn\u00ed krok vyty\u010duje dosa\u017een\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f o 55 % do roku 2030 oproti roku 1990. Studie tak v \u010desk\u00e9 debat\u011b otev\u00edr\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 t\u00e9ma, by\u0165 v\u00fdsledky i metodick\u00fd postup jsou diskutabiln\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n<p>Probl\u00e9my s p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em vid\u00edme v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch bodech:<\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Z p\u0159edem dostupn\u00fdch slid\u016f nen\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u00e9, nakolik se v jednotliv\u00fdch sektorech bude na omezov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed pod\u00edlet zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed energetick\u00e9 efektivnosti a nakolik n\u00e1hrada zdroj\u016f. Zejm\u00e9na v sektoru z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed teplem jde o z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech m\u00e1 na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed nejv\u00edce pod\u00edlet energetick\u00fd sektor &#8211; v\u00fdroba tepla a elekt\u0159iny. Z pohledu sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed uhl\u00edkov\u00e9 n\u00e1ro\u010dnosti je v obdob\u00ed do roku 2030 pon\u011bkud zar\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed st\u00e1le vysok\u00fd instalovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon uheln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren v roce 2030, up\u0159ednost\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed zemn\u00edho plynu p\u0159i n\u00e1hrad\u011b uhl\u00ed a pomal\u00fd r\u016fst obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Nen\u00ed tak vyu\u017eita mo\u017enost provozovat plynov\u00e9 zdroje s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00fdm vyu\u017eit\u00edm jako dopln\u011bk pro rostouc\u00ed sektor obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, co\u017e je pro sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed vhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cesta. Na n\u00e1kladovou efektivnost zvolen\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu bude m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv cena emisn\u00edch povolenek a dal\u0161\u00ed pokles po\u0159izovac\u00ed ceny obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Zejm\u00e9na pro obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje s velk\u00fdm nevyu\u017eit\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice (v\u011btrn\u00e9 a fotovoltaick\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny) studie nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s mo\u017en\u00fdm \u017e\u00e1douc\u00edm r\u016fstem ve dvac\u00e1t\u00fdch letech jako Komora OZE &#8211; ta p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 ve st\u0159edn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i pro rok 2030 u v\u011btrn\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren instalovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon 1,6 GW a pro fotovoltaiku 7,0 GW. Varianta s pomalej\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1stupem obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm plynu nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 vysok\u00e9mu dovozu elekt\u0159iny z levn\u00fdch obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f v zahrani\u010d\u00ed.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Nen\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u00e9, s jak\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm biomasy sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 &#8211; biomasa je zmi\u0148ov\u00e1na jako n\u00e1hradn\u00ed zdroj pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed tepla v budov\u00e1ch i v pr\u016fmyslu i p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b elekt\u0159iny.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>McKinsey po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm r\u016fstem spot\u0159eby elekt\u0159iny a\u017e na 125 TWh do roku 2050. To je daleko v\u00edce, ne\u017e modeluje OTE, a&nbsp; to i se zahrnut\u00edm rozvoje elektromobility. Viz <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ote-cr.cz\/cs\/statistika\/dlouhodoba-rovnovaha\/poptavka-elektriny\">https:\/\/www.ote-cr.cz\/cs\/statistika\/dlouhodoba-rovnovaha\/poptavka-elektriny<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 McKinsey do roku 2050 implicitn\u011b po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s provozem dvou nov\u00fdch velk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch blok\u016f, nenab\u00edz\u00ed variantu pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee se jejich v\u00fdstavba neuskute\u010dn\u00ed nebo nabere velk\u00fd skluz. Velkou ot\u00e1zkou je n\u00e1kladov\u00e1 efektivita takov\u00e9ho p\u0159edpokladu.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<p><strong>Kontext &#8211; dal\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e postupn\u00e9 dekarbonizace \u010desk\u00e9 energetiky:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>P\u0159ed dv\u011bma lety vzniklo modelov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9 elektriza\u010dn\u00ed soustavy od expert\u016f ze spole\u010dnosti Energynautics, kter\u00e9 prok\u00e1zalo, \u017ee m\u016f\u017eeme odstavit v\u0161echny uveden\u00e9 uheln\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny postupn\u011b ji\u017e do roku 2030. Modelov\u00e1n\u00ed po\u010d\u00edtalo s realistick\u00fdm r\u016fstem v\u00fdroby z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f na dvojn\u00e1sobek sou\u010dasn\u00e9 produkce, provozem jadern\u00fdch reaktor\u016f v Temel\u00edn\u011b i Dukovanech, v\u00fdrobou elekt\u0159iny v tepl\u00e1rn\u00e1ch (kter\u00e9 dle aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdhledu ji\u017e nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nebudou vyu\u017e\u00edvat uhl\u00ed), nov\u00fdmi zdroji elekt\u0159iny z plynu a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebou elekt\u0159iny. Model zkoumal fungov\u00e1n\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b v 15-minutov\u00fdch intervalech po cel\u00fd rok, tak\u017ee postihl nap\u0159\u00edklad denn\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dky spot\u0159eby \u010di propady v\u00fdroby z fotovoltaiky v noci \u010di v zim\u011b.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Leto\u0161n\u00ed studie Lignite Triangle modeluje \u00fatlum a konec spalov\u00e1n\u00ed hn\u011bd\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed v N\u011bmecku, Polsku a \u010cesku. Zam\u011b\u0159uje se tedy na vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed velmi rozumn\u00e9 n\u00e1mitky, \u017ee nelze uva\u017eovat o konci uhl\u00ed samostatn\u011b pro \u010cR, nebo\u0165 \u00fatlum uhl\u00ed v sousedn\u00edch st\u00e1tech ovlivn\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnu elekt\u0159iny, kter\u00e1 je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm prvkem optimalizace elektriza\u010dn\u00edch soustav. Modelov\u00e1n\u00ed prok\u00e1zalo mo\u017enost ukon\u010dit spalov\u00e1n\u00ed hn\u011bd\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed pro v\u00fdrobu elekt\u0159iny a tepla sou\u010dasn\u011b v \u010cR, Polsku a N\u011bmecku v roce 2032, V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b N\u011bmecka se uva\u017euje i konec spalov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010dern\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed, jeho vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b kles\u00e1 i v \u010cR (kde je pro v\u00fdrobu elekt\u0159iny nyn\u00ed m\u00e1lo v\u00fdznamn\u00e9) a v Polsku. Urychlen\u00ed odklonu od uhl\u00ed je \u0159e\u0161eno v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm rozvojem sol\u00e1rn\u00edch a v\u011btrn\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren (vyu\u017eit\u00ed plynu je podobn\u00e9 jako ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i referen\u010dn\u00edm odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm business-as-usual). Rychlej\u0161\u00ed odklon od uhl\u00ed by znamenal ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cenu elekt\u0159iny v roce 2040 (47 Eur\/MWh v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 56 Eur\/MWh dle referen\u010dn\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Aktualizovan\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 postupn\u00e9ho \u00fatlumu \u010desk\u00e9 uheln\u00e9 energetiky od spole\u010dnosti BNEF m\u00e1 b\u00fdt zve\u0159ejn\u011bn koncem tohoto t\u00fddne. Soust\u0159ed\u00ed se na ekonomick\u00e9 aspekty produkce elekt\u0159iny z uhl\u00ed a mo\u017enosti jejich n\u00e1hrady \u0161etrn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi alternativami. Podle p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00edc\u00ed s p\u0159ijet\u00edm klimatick\u00e9ho c\u00edle na \u00farovni EU ve v\u00fd\u0161i 55 % do roku 2030, povede k n\u00e1r\u016fstu ceny emisn\u00edch povolenek, a t\u00edm k odstaven\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny \u010desk\u00e9 hn\u011bdouheln\u00e9 kapacity u\u017e v obdob\u00ed do roku 2025. Jako nejekonomi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1hrada uhl\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed podle t\u00e9to studie v\u011btrn\u00e1 energetika. Studie je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm a aktualizac\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly zve\u0159ejn\u011bny v \u010dervenci 2020.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Studie spole\u010dnosti Ember vyu\u017eila modelu Artelys Crystal Supergrid platform. Jde o etablovan\u00fd model evropsk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd se vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed a hodnocen\u00ed rozvoje energetick\u00e9 infrastruktury. Zad\u00e1n\u00edm pro modelov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo, aby ve\u0161ker\u00e1 produkce energie z uhl\u00ed v \u010cR skon\u010dila do roku 2030 a nahradil ji optimalizovan\u00fd mix alternativn\u00edch zdroj\u016f podle krit\u00e9ria n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 efektivnosti. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 b\u00fdt zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd v t\u00fddnu od 16. listopadu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00e1sadn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 transformace m\u016f\u017ee prob\u011bhnout v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm desetilet\u00ed za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee \u010cR mnohem v\u00edce vsad\u00ed na n\u00e1kladov\u011b nejv\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1hradu uhl\u00ed, j\u00ed\u017e jsou obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>St\u00e1le v\u0161ak v \u010desk\u00e9 debat\u011b chyb\u00ed dlouhodob\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 (popisuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj do roku 2050) s v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm rozvojem v\u011btrn\u00fdch a fotovoltaick\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren s odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed akumulac\u00ed.<\/li><\/ul>\n<div class=\"EmptyMessage\">Block content is empty. Check the block&#8217;s settings or remove it.<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Studie \u010desk\u00e9 pobo\u010dky mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konzulta\u010dn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti McKinsey &amp; Company se zam\u011b\u0159uje na n\u00e1kladov\u011b efektivn\u00ed cesty k dekarbonizaci \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kdy\u017e jako prvn\u00ed krok vyty\u010duje dosa\u017een\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f o&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":4391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"not set","p4_local_project":"not set","p4_basket_name":"not set","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[20,25],"p4-page-type":[33],"class_list":["post-12183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energeticka-revoluce","tag-zmena-klimatu","tag-konec-doby-fosilni","p4-page-type-tiskova-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12183"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12183\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15468,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12183\/revisions\/15468"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12183"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=12183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}