{"id":16777,"date":"2022-05-20T15:53:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-20T14:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/?p=16777"},"modified":"2022-05-23T15:46:44","modified_gmt":"2022-05-23T14:46:44","slug":"i-kdyz-cesko-bude-pokracovat-v-nakupu-ruske-ropy-bude-stejne-draha-jako-v-ostatnich-zemich","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/clanek\/16777\/i-kdyz-cesko-bude-pokracovat-v-nakupu-ruske-ropy-bude-stejne-draha-jako-v-ostatnich-zemich\/","title":{"rendered":"Dal\u0161\u00ed dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy do \u010cR zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed nezastav\u00ed. Cena ropy vznik\u00e1 na burze a je stejn\u00e1 v cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

U\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f se v Evropsk\u00e9 unii \u0159e\u0161\u00ed nov\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek sankc\u00ed proti Rusku, kter\u00fd by m\u011bl obsahovat i z\u00e1vazek na postupn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. Minist\u0159i a premi\u00e9\u0159i se kv\u016fli n\u011bmu sejdou na mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m summitu EU na konci kv\u011btna<\/a>. Snahu skoncovat s ruskou ropou, kter\u00e1 financuje pr\u00e1v\u011b prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed ruskou agresi na Ukrajin\u011b, blokuje Ma\u010farsko. \u010cesko a Slovensko zauj\u00edmaj\u00ed alibistick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup, proto\u017ee jsou ochotn\u00e9 konec rusk\u00e9 ropy podpo\u0159it, ale jen v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee pro n\u011b nebude po n\u011bjakou dobu platit. \u010cesko by mohlo z\u00edskat v\u00fdjimku do poloviny a Slovensko a\u017e do konce roku 2024.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
\u00a9 Greenpeace – Martin Langer <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Premi\u00e9r Petr Fiala argumentuje t\u00edm, \u017ee „sankce nesm\u00ed po\u0161kodit v\u00edce \u010desk\u00e9 ob\u010dany ne\u017e Ruskou federaci<\/a>„. Co t\u00edm p\u0159esn\u011b mysl\u00ed, nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b jasn\u00e9, ale d\u00e1 se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed obavy vzbuzuj\u00ed dva mo\u017en\u00e9 negativn\u00ed dopady konce dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy – cenov\u00fd \u0161ok a akutn\u00ed nedostatek ropy a s n\u00edm spojen\u00fd kolaps dopravy lid\u00ed a zbo\u017e\u00ed. Poj\u010fme si rozebrat, nakolik jsou tyto hrozby re\u00e1ln\u00e9 a nakolik jde jen o neopodstatn\u011bnou paniku a strach z nezn\u00e1m\u00e9ho. <\/p>\n\n

1. Ceny ropy se vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed na spole\u010dn\u00e9 burze<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Ropn\u00e9 embargo v\u016f\u010di rusk\u00e9 rop\u011b, na n\u011bm\u017e se nyn\u00ed domlouvaj\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b prvn\u00edm sv\u00e9ho druhu na sv\u011bt\u011b. M\u016f\u017eeme se tak pod\u00edvat, jak fungovala a jak\u00fd m\u011bla dopad na ceny embarga uvalen\u00e1 v minulosti, dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem je nap\u0159\u00edklad obdobn\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 embargo Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/a>. I v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bylo zav\u00e1d\u011bno postupn\u011b a obchodn\u00edci mohli po ur\u010ditou dobu d\u00e1l nakupovat \u00edr\u00e1nskou ropu za podm\u00ednky, \u017ee jejich zem\u011b jej\u00ed n\u00e1kupy v\u00fdznamn\u011b omezily. V\u00fdsledkem byl propad prodeje \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy na p\u011btinu p\u016fvodn\u00edho objemu, zat\u00edmco k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu cenov\u00e9mu \u0161oku ve sv\u011bt\u011b nedo\u0161lo. <\/p>\n\n

Ceny ropy se nyn\u00ed zvy\u0161uj\u00ed hlavn\u011b kv\u016fli v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b a d\u00e1 se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se budou zvy\u0161ovat i nad\u00e1le, a\u0165 u\u017e to s ropn\u00fdm embargem dopadne jakkoli. N\u011bkter\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b N\u011bmecka<\/a>, u\u017e se nechaly sly\u0161et, \u017ee dovoz ropy z Ruska ukon\u010d\u00ed v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se na tom nedohodne unijn\u00ed sedmadvac\u00edtka. A je nutn\u00e9 si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee na ceny ropy nebude m\u00edt rozhodnut\u00ed Fialovy vl\u00e1dy ohledn\u011b ukon\u010den\u00ed \u010di neukon\u010den\u00ed dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy do \u010ceska pra\u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv. <\/p>\n\n

Ropa je glob\u00e1ln\u011b obchodovan\u00e1 komodita a jej\u00ed cena se vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed na energetick\u00fdch burz\u00e1ch. Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem je index severomo\u0159sk\u00e9 ropy BRENT, kter\u00fd ud\u00e1v\u00e1 cenu zhruba pro dv\u011b t\u0159etiny ve\u0161ker\u00e9 celosv\u011btov\u011b obchodovan\u00e9 ropy. Cena ropy se vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u011b na z\u00e1klad\u011b tzv. futures kontrakt\u016f, kter\u00e9 zohled\u0148uj\u00ed spekulace, kolik by ropa mohla st\u00e1t v budoucnosti. <\/p>\n\n

Na rozd\u00edl od v\u011bt\u0161iny produkt\u016f tak nejsou ceny ropy ur\u010dov\u00e1ny v\u00fdhradn\u011b nab\u00eddkou, popt\u00e1vkou a n\u00e1ladou na trhu v\u016f\u010di fyzick\u00e9mu produktu, ale nab\u00eddka, popt\u00e1vka a n\u00e1lada v\u016f\u010di futures kontrakt\u016fm, s nimi\u017e ve velk\u00e9m obchoduj\u00ed spekulanti. Proto je v okam\u017eic\u00edch krize cena ropy zna\u010dn\u011b nafoukl\u00e1 a proto nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed cenov\u00fd \u0161ok p\u0159i\u0161el v dob\u011b paniky na trhu po napaden\u00ed Ukrajiny Ruskem, kdy nikdo nev\u011bd\u011bl, co se bude d\u00edt. A to p\u0159esto, \u017ee dod\u00e1vky ropy do Evropy (nab\u00eddka) se po za\u010d\u00e1tku invaze v\u016fbec nesn\u00ed\u017eily. Nemus\u00ed se n\u00e1m to l\u00edbit, ale tak prost\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00e1 ekonomika a kapitalistick\u00fd syst\u00e9m funguje.<\/p>\n\n

Pokud se \u010cesko neodst\u0159ihne od rusk\u00e9 ropy, nijak se mu t\u00edm cena ropy nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, ani se jej\u00ed zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed nezastav\u00ed. Cena ropy v \u010cesku bude stejn\u011b vysok\u00e1 jako jinde v Evrop\u011b, proto\u017ee evropsk\u00e1 burza nebude br\u00e1t p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 ohled na rozhodnut\u00ed tak mal\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, jak\u00fdm je \u010cesko, kdy\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed st\u00e1ty Unie dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy ukon\u010d\u00ed. Tak\u017ee dilema nen\u00ed o tom, jestli m\u016f\u017ee \u010cesko m\u00edt levnou nebo drahou ropu, ale zda bude odeb\u00edrat drahou ropu z Ruska, a financovat tak v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, nebo zda bude odeb\u00edrat stejn\u011b drahou ropu odjinud, m\u00edt sv\u011bdom\u00ed \u010dist\u00e9 a p\u0159isp\u00edvat k tomu, aby v\u00e1lka co nejd\u0159\u00edve skon\u010dila kv\u016fli nedostatku financ\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n

2. M\u00e1me ropu odjinud i strategick\u00e9 rezervy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee teoreticky s koncem dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy nastat, je fyzick\u00fd nedostatek t\u00e9to komodity. \u010cesko si dok\u00e1\u017ee vyrobit samo jen 2 % ropy, kterou spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1. Dovoz z Ruska pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 48 % spot\u0159eby, zbytek odeb\u00edr\u00e1 \u010cesko z ropovodu IKL\/TAL, kter\u00fd vede z italsk\u00e9ho Terstu p\u0159es n\u011bmeck\u00fd Ingolstadt. Tento ropovod v\u00fdznamn\u011b z\u00e1sobuje i Rakousko a \u010d\u00e1st N\u011bmecka. <\/p>\n\n

Spole\u010dnost SIAT-TAL ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee je schopn\u00e1 zv\u00fd\u0161it okam\u017eit\u011b a v\u00fdrazn\u011b dod\u00e1vky do st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy tak, aby dod\u00e1vky ropy do \u010ceska zdvojn\u00e1sobila<\/a>, a vykryla tak ve\u0161kerou popt\u00e1vku po rusk\u00e9 rop\u011b. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 m\u016f\u017ee pos\u00edlat i st\u0159edn\u011b sirnou ropu podobn\u00e9ho slo\u017een\u00ed, jak\u00e9 m\u00e1 ta rusk\u00e1 a jakou je schopn\u00e1 zpracov\u00e1vat rafinerie v Litv\u00ednov\u011b. Ta pat\u0159\u00ed polsk\u00e9 firm\u011b PKN Orlen, kter\u00e1 takt\u00e9\u017e potvrdila, \u017ee je na konec dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy p\u0159ipravena a \u017ee zvl\u00e1dne z\u00e1sobovat \u010cesko ropou i po uvalen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch sankc\u00ed<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n

Tak kde je vlastn\u011b probl\u00e9m? Podle ministra pr\u016fmyslu a obchodu Jozefa S\u00edkely a spole\u010dnosti MERO, kter\u00e1 provozuje ropovody IKL a Dru\u017eba na \u010desk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed, je \u00fazk\u00fdm hrdlem nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 kapacita ropovodu na cest\u011b z N\u011bmecka do \u010ceska. S\u00edkela uvedl, \u017ee okam\u017eit\u011b jsme schopn\u00ed nahradit jen dv\u011b t\u0159etiny rusk\u00e9 ropy<\/a>, zbytek by m\u011bla vy\u0159e\u0161it instalace dal\u0161\u00edch \u010derpadel. A pr\u00e1v\u011b kv\u016fli nim pr\u00fd vl\u00e1da po\u017eaduje odklad konce rusk\u00e9 ropy o dva roky. <\/p>\n\n

Kdy\u017e vezmeme pana ministra za slovo a budeme mu v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee jsme okam\u017eit\u011b schopni jen dv\u011b t\u0159etiny rusk\u00e9 ropy, vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z toho, \u017ee pot\u0159ebujeme v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch nahradit 16 % sou\u010dasn\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ropy a 84 % jsme ji\u017e dnes schopn\u00ed pokr\u00fdt jednoduchou n\u00e1hradou za jin\u00fd zdroj. <\/p>\n\n

Je ot\u00e1zka, nakolik v souvislosti s rostouc\u00edmi cenami jezd\u00ed lid\u00e9 m\u00e9n\u011b \u010di plynuleji, aby \u0161et\u0159ili svou spot\u0159ebu a sv\u00e9 pen\u011b\u017eenky. Takov\u00e1 data u ropy nem\u00e1me, ale ukazuje se, \u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad u drah\u00e9ho plynu do\u0161lo ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed spot\u0159eby o 18 procent<\/a>. Mo\u017en\u00e1 tak jsme ji\u017e dnes schopn\u00ed nahradit sou\u010dasnou spot\u0159ebu. Ale i kdyby ne, st\u00e1t m\u00e1 mnoho mo\u017enost\u00ed, jak m\u016f\u017ee spot\u0159ebu ropy sni\u017eovat, a dos\u00e1hnout tak konce dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e v polovin\u011b roku 2024. Mezi n\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad podpora ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 dopravy, cyklistiky a n\u00e1kladn\u00ed dopravy na \u017eeleznici \u010di op\u011btovn\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed pr\u00e1ce na home office. Podle anal\u00fdzy koleg\u016f z Greenpeace CEE se d\u00e1 takov\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi sn\u00ed\u017eit spot\u0159eba rusk\u00e9 ropy v Evrop\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit o 28 %<\/a>, co\u017e by \u010cesku bohat\u011b sta\u010dilo k urychlen\u00ed konce dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy.<\/p>\n\n

Ale p\u0159ipus\u0165m\u011b je\u0161t\u011b na okam\u017eik, \u017ee spot\u0159eba z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 stejn\u00e1, \u010cesko nen\u00ed schopn\u00e9 ji sn\u00ed\u017eit a nen\u00ed schopn\u00e9 dov\u00e9zt dostatek. Nastal by v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kritick\u00fd nedostatek ropy a kolaps pr\u016fmyslu i z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed? Odpov\u011b\u010f je jasn\u00e1 – ne. \u010cesk\u00e1 republika m\u00e1 toti\u017e v tuto chv\u00edli strategick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, kter\u00e9 jsou schopn\u00e9 pokr\u00fdt sou\u010dasnou spot\u0159ebu (tedy spot\u0159ebu bez opat\u0159en\u00ed na jej\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsme probrali v\u00fd\u0161e) po cel\u00fdch 94 dn\u00ed<\/a>. Vlastn\u011b to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kdyby od 1. ledna nedod\u00e1valo \u010cesko \u017e\u00e1dnou ruskou ropu, vydr\u017e\u00ed do poloviny roku 2024 jen s maxim\u00e1ln\u00edmi mo\u017en\u00fdmi dod\u00e1vkami z ropovodu IKL a se strategick\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobami a je\u0161t\u011b mu ropa zhruba na t\u00fdden zbyde. Tak\u017ee ani akutn\u00ed nedostatek ropy a s n\u00edm spojen\u00e9 komplikace po p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m ukon\u010den\u00ed dovozu z Ruska na konci roku v \u010cesku nehroz\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n

M\u016f\u017eeme jen spekulovat, jestli pan premi\u00e9r Fiala nem\u011bl na mysli je\u0161t\u011b jin\u00e9 negativn\u00ed dopady na \u010desk\u00e9 obyvatele, kter\u00fdm chce \u010desk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zabr\u00e1nit t\u00edm, \u017ee se vyhne povinnosti zak\u00e1zat dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy. Ale je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee pokud \u010cesko bude pokra\u010dovat v n\u00e1kupu rusk\u00e9 ropy, \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cenu pro lidi to nezajist\u00ed. A v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konce dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd kolaps civilizace nehroz\u00ed. Naopak, pokud se nep\u0159id\u00e1me ke st\u00e1t\u016fm, kter\u00e9 dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy zastav\u00ed, znamen\u00e1 to mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ostudu a p\u0159\u00edmou finan\u010dn\u00ed podporu v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b a zab\u00edjen\u00ed civilist\u016f. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f se v Evropsk\u00e9 unii \u0159e\u0161\u00ed nov\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek sankc\u00ed proti Rusku, kter\u00fd by m\u011bl obsahovat i z\u00e1vazek na postupn\u00e9 ukon\u010den\u00ed dovozu rusk\u00e9 ropy do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. Minist\u0159i a premi\u00e9\u0159i se kv\u016fli n\u011bmu sejdou na mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m summitu EU na konci kv\u011btna. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":16849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"not set","p4_local_project":"not set","p4_basket_name":"not set","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[25],"p4-page-type":[16],"class_list":["post-16777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energeticka-revoluce","tag-konec-doby-fosilni","p4-page-type-clanek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16777"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16777\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16871,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16777\/revisions\/16871"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16777"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=16777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}