{"id":3499,"date":"2019-06-04T10:31:48","date_gmt":"2019-06-04T08:31:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/?p=3499"},"modified":"2021-12-01T13:32:28","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T12:32:28","slug":"jake-bude-klima-v-cr-nadeje-jmenem-rcm-2-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/clanek\/3499\/jake-bude-klima-v-cr-nadeje-jmenem-rcm-2-6\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak\u00e9 bude klima v \u010cR? Jedinou nad\u011bj\u00ed, jak zabr\u00e1nit katastrof\u011b, je za\u010d\u00edt hned jednat"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00dastav v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny Akademie v\u011bd \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky vydal na sv\u00e9m webu <\/span>www.klimatickazmena.cz<\/span><\/a> pro \u010ceskou republiku zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed a v mnoha ohledech kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd dokument \u201c<\/span>O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky v \u010cR<\/span><\/a>\u201d. C\u00edlem zpr\u00e1vy je popsat \u201e<\/span>strategie pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed udr\u017eitelnosti ekosyst\u00e9mov\u00fdch slu\u017eeb.\u201c <\/span><\/em>Dokument, ze kter\u00e9ho je vyd\u00e1na zat\u00edm jen prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st, je velmi hutn\u00e9 \u010dten\u00ed. A to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm pro v\u0161echny, kte\u0159\u00ed se zaj\u00edmaj\u00ed o dopady zm\u011bny klimatu na p\u0159\u00edrodu a obyvatele v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice a mo\u017enost\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed adaptace a nutnost\u00ed preventivn\u00edch krok\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Do roku 2050 budeme skl\u00edzet co jsme zaseli<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Studie \u010desk\u00fdch v\u011bdc\u016f je je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed ne\u017e ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00edho panelu pro klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny. A\u0165 u\u017e se budou emise sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f vyv\u00edjet jakkoli, v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nepoda\u0159\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit oteplen\u00ed o 2 <\/span>\u00b0C <\/span>ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s lety 1981 a\u017e 2010. Te\u010f jsme ov\u0161em na cest\u011b ke katastrofick\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kter\u00fd by po roce 2050 ud\u011blal z \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky m\u00edsto, kde se ned\u00e1 \u017e\u00edt, tak jako dnes. O to intenzivn\u011bji mus\u00edme za\u010d\u00edt pracovat na sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed emis\u00ed, aby maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty dos\u00e1hlo pouze 1,5\u00b0C. Proto\u017ee jak plyne ze zpr\u00e1vy IPPC, rozd\u00edl v dopadech klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny p\u0159i oteplen\u00ed o 1,5\u00b0C a 2\u00b0C\u00a0 je drastick\u00fd.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Sucho (ilustra\u010dn\u00ed foto)<\/p><\/div>\n

V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch des\u00edtk\u00e1ch let budeme doslova skl\u00edzet plody na\u0161eho dosavadn\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zm\u011bna o 2\u00b0 C se bude projevovat na n\u011bkolika \u00farovn\u00edch, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou ale bude nepochybn\u011b sucho. P\u0159edpoklad\u016f vzniku sucha je n\u011bkolik, nav\u00edc se vz\u00e1jemn\u011b posiluj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie \u010desk\u00fdch v\u011bdc\u016f je je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed ne\u017e ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va IPCC<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Prvn\u00edm p\u0159edpokladem je zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty, kter\u00e9 se nejv\u00edce projev\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm minim\u00e1ln\u00edch teplot b\u011bhem zimy a jara. \u201c<\/span>Teplotn\u00ed minima porostou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvakr\u00e1t rychleji v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s teplotn\u00edmi maximy\u201d. <\/span><\/em>\u00a0Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee na\u0161e zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed je z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na z\u00e1sob\u011b vody ze zimy a jara, jsou d\u016fsledky z\u0159ejm\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm projevem budou extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9 teploty b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta. Po\u010dty tropick\u00fdch dn\u016f porostou, co\u017e op\u011bt plat\u00ed pro ka\u017ed\u00fd z emisn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Nejhor\u0161\u00ed emisn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd jak zpr\u00e1va sama uv\u00e1d\u00ed \u201c<\/span>je v n\u011bkter\u00fdch parametrech ji\u017e p\u0159ekra\u010dov\u00e1n<\/span><\/em>\u201d by znamenal na konci stolet\u00ed tak\u0159ka 30 tropick\u00fdch dn\u016f za rok (v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed \u00a0s referen\u010dn\u00edm obdob\u00edm 1981 \u2013 2010, kde je 8 tropick\u00fdch dn\u016f za rok). Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed teploty vedou ke zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmu se odparu vody z krajiny, co\u017e op\u011bt vede k suchu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/lite-youtube>\n

Pom\u016f\u017ee n\u00e1m d\u00e9\u0161\u0165?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Odpov\u011bd\u00ed na vlny veder a zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch teplot by se mohly st\u00e1t de\u0161\u0165ov\u00e9 sr\u00e1\u017eky na na\u0161em \u00fazem\u00ed. Emisn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi emisemi CO2 ur\u010dit\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00fahrnu sr\u00e1\u017eek dokonce p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed. Situace ale nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00e1, jak by se mohlo zd\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak zpr\u00e1va sama zmi\u0148uje, na rozd\u00edl od p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed teplot, kter\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed modelovan\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016fm v\u00fdvoje, \u201c<\/span>v posledn\u00edch letech naopak m\u011b\u0159\u00edme m\u00e9n\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek oproti modelov\u00fdm situac\u00edm\u201d. <\/span><\/em>M\u00edra nejistoty v\u00fdvoje sr\u00e1\u017eek je tedy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u v\u00fdvoje teplot. <\/span>Z\u00e1rove\u0148 plat\u00ed, \u017ee kdy\u017e u\u017e modely p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed celkov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f sr\u00e1\u017eek b\u011bhem roku, je to n\u00e1r\u016fst p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm b\u011bhem zimy, jara a podzimu. B\u011bhem l\u00e9ta, pro kter\u00e9 jsou p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1ny vlny veder, je naopak p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f sr\u00e1\u017eek ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. \u201c<\/span>Co\u017e bude m\u00edt nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd dopad\u2026 na v\u00fdskyt sucha.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eV posledn\u00edch letech naopak m\u011b\u0159\u00edme m\u00e9n\u011b sr\u00e1\u017eek oproti modelov\u00fdm situac\u00edm.\u201c<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I budouc\u00ed rozlo\u017een\u00ed sr\u00e1\u017eek nen\u00ed pro na\u0161i republiky p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159\u00edv\u011btiv\u00e9. Obecn\u011b ze zpr\u00e1vy vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee na m\u00edstech s dostate\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdskytem sr\u00e1\u017eek bude pr\u0161et v\u00edce, na m\u00edstech, kde ji\u017e nyn\u00ed nepr\u0161\u00ed tolik, naopak n\u00e1r\u016fst sr\u00e1\u017eek nebude znateln\u00fd. \u201c<\/span>Nejmen\u0161\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu sr\u00e1\u017eek, \u010di dokonce k jejich poklesu dojde na ji\u017en\u00ed Morav\u011b. To by vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee jde o nejteplej\u0161\u00ed oblast \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky vedlo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dostupnosti vl\u00e1hy a z\u00e1sadn\u00edmu zhor\u0161en\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 produkce v t\u00e9to oblasti.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

A nakonec, a\u010dkoli je p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1no zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed celkov\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017eek, po\u010det dn\u016f se \u201c<\/span>sr\u00e1\u017ekami nad 1mm se p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezm\u011bn\u00ed. Po\u010det dn\u00ed se sr\u00e1\u017ekami v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi ne\u017e 10 resp. 20 mm v budoucnosti d\u00e1le poroste\u201d. <\/span><\/em>Velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tedy p\u0159ibudou sp\u00ed\u0161e extr\u00e9mn\u00ed projevy sr\u00e1\u017eek jako p\u0159\u00edvalov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b a povodn\u011b ne\u017e p\u0159irozen\u00e9 p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed vody v krajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Fridays

Studentsk\u00e1 st\u00e1vka v Praze<\/p><\/div>\n

Nad\u011bje jm\u00e9nem RCP 2.6<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A\u010dkoli je zpr\u00e1va zat\u00edm na za\u010d\u00e1tku a vyd\u00e1na byla pouze prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee mus\u00edme po\u010d\u00edtat se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty na \u00fazem\u00ed republiky minim\u00e1ln\u011b o 2\u00b0 C. Dopady, kter\u00e9 zpr\u00e1va zmi\u0148uje budou znamenat rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 adapta\u010dn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed jak pro samotnou krajinu, tak v lidsk\u00fdch s\u00eddlech. Rozsah zm\u011bny je tak\u00e9 jasn\u00fd. M\u00edra negativn\u00edho dopadu je spojena s mno\u017estv\u00edm vypu\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch emis\u00ed. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce vypu\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch emis\u00ed, t\u00edm hor\u0161\u00ed dopady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u0161\u00ed nad\u011bj\u00ed je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi emisemi \u2013 RCP 2.6. A\u010dkoli je b\u011bh klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny podle zmi\u0148ovan\u00fdch model\u016f do roku 2050 v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b jasn\u00fd, rozd\u00edl predikovan\u00fdch dopad\u016f zm\u011bn klimatu po roce 2050 podle nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho a nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edho emisn\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e je propastn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na\u0161\u00ed nad\u011bj\u00ed je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi emisemi \u2013 RCP 2.6<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Je v na\u0161em z\u00e1jmu dr\u017eet se n\u00edzk\u00e9ho emisn\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e a ud\u011blat v\u0161e proto, aby nebyly napln\u011bny modely jin\u00e9. Nejen\u017ee je takov\u00fd postup v na\u0161em z\u00e1jmu, je i v na\u0161\u00ed moci udr\u017eet stoupaj\u00edc\u00ed emise na uzd\u011b. Technologie i znalosti na zm\u011bnu zp\u016fsobu v\u00fdroby na\u0161\u00ed energie m\u00e1me.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 republika dr\u017e\u00ed dlouhodob\u011b velmi vysokou pozici v \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku porovn\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm emise CO2 na obyvatele za rok. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br (5,2 tun na obyvatele za rok) p\u0159ekra\u010dujeme tak\u0159ka 2x (9,8 tun na obyvatele za rok). Tak vysok\u00e9 emise jsou d\u00e1ny p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm vysokou z\u00e1vislost\u00ed na\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 soustavy na spalov\u00e1n\u00ed energeticky m\u00e1lo \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9ho hn\u011bd\u00e9ho uhl\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st na\u0161eho energetick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme za hranice, v posledn\u00edch 10 letech to bylo zhruba stejn\u011b, kolik spot\u0159ebovaly na\u0161e dom\u00e1cnosti. <\/span><\/p>\n

Technologie i znalosti na zm\u011bnu zp\u016fsobu v\u00fdroby na\u0161\u00ed energie m\u00e1me.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Zm\u011bna na\u0161eho chov\u00e1n\u00ed je ale nedohlednu. \u00a0Prolomili jsme limity t\u011b\u017eby na dole B\u00edlina<\/a>, \u010cEZ zva\u017euje m\u00edsto uzav\u0159en\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny Po\u010derady<\/a> jej\u00ed prodej uhlobaronu Tyka\u010dovi a \u010desk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 koncepce byla ohodnocena jako t\u0159et\u00ed nejhor\u0161\u00ed v Evrop\u011b<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm vl\u00e1da na\u0161eho st\u00e1tu, kdo mus\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt jednat. A ono opravdu sta\u010d\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt. Mus\u00edme co nejd\u0159\u00edve za\u010d\u00edt jednat spolu pro klima<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00dastav v\u00fdzkumu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny Akademie v\u011bd \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky vydal pro \u010ceskou republiku zcela z\u00e1sadn\u00ed a v mnoha ohledech kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd dokument \u201cO\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 podm\u00ednky v \u010cR\u201d. C\u00edlem zpr\u00e1vy je popsat \u201estrategie…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":3468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4,3],"tags":[20],"p4-page-type":[16],"class_list":["post-3499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energeticka-revoluce","category-nas-svet","tag-zmena-klimatu","p4-page-type-clanek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3499"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15704,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3499\/revisions\/15704"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3499"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=3499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}