{"id":3909,"date":"2019-07-26T16:00:59","date_gmt":"2019-07-26T14:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/?p=3909"},"modified":"2021-12-01T13:32:24","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T12:32:24","slug":"jak-presne-vedci-predpovedeli-klimatickou-zmenu-v-roce-1979","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/clanek\/3909\/jak-presne-vedci-predpovedeli-klimatickou-zmenu-v-roce-1979\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak p\u0159esn\u011b v\u011bdci p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli klimatickou zm\u011bnu v roce 1979?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010cl\u00e1nek vych\u00e1z\u00ed z <\/span>pr\u00e1ce<\/span><\/a> emeritn\u00ed profesora Monahsk\u00e9 univerzity <\/span>Neville Nichollse<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed n\u011bkolika dny uplynulo 50 let od prvn\u00edho kroku \u010dlov\u011bka na m\u011bs\u00edci. Skv\u011bl\u00fd doklad mo\u017enost\u00ed v\u011bdy a lidsk\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed. Nen\u00ed to ale jedin\u00fd d\u016fkaz schopnost\u00ed v\u011bdy, kter\u00fd bychom si m\u011bli p\u0159ipom\u00ednat. Tento t\u00fdden toti\u017e ub\u011bhne 40 let od prvn\u00edho, skute\u010dn\u011b komplexn\u00edho posouzen\u00ed vlivu zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se koncentrace oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klima. V l\u00e9t\u011b 1979 toti\u017e sv\u011btlo sv\u011bta spat\u0159ila v\u011bdeck\u00e1 studie, kter\u00e1 pozd\u011bji z\u00edskala n\u00e1zev <\/span>Charneyova zpr\u00e1va.<\/span><\/a> Jak p\u0159esn\u011b popsala na\u0161i sou\u010dasnost a pro\u010d je tak z\u00e1sadn\u00ed?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Earthrise\"

V\u00fdchod Zem\u011b – fotografie po\u0159\u00edzen\u00e1 b\u011bhem letu Apolla 8 Billem Andersem b\u011bhem v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00edho dne 1968.<\/p><\/div>\n

Znalosti o CO2 byly ji\u017e v roce 1979 rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9. V roce 1859 byly prok\u00e1z\u00e1ny schopnosti CO2 jako sklen\u00edkov\u00e9ho plynu. Od 50. let v\u011bdci p\u0159edpov\u00eddali zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty v d\u016fsledku spalov\u00e1n\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv. V roce 1972 dokonce vy\u0161el v \u010dasopise <\/span>Nature<\/span><\/a> \u010dty\u0159str\u00e1nkov\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek <\/span>Johna Sawyera <\/span>shrnuj\u00edc\u00ed znalosti o klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b s p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplen\u00ed zemsk\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9ry o 0,6\u00b0C do roku 2000. T\u00e9ma glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplen\u00ed ale bylo st\u00e1le velmi kontroverzn\u00ed. M\u00e9dia dokonce spekulovala o nov\u00e9 dob\u011b ledov\u00e9 (viz pozn\u00e1mka na konci \u010dl\u00e1nku).<\/span><\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b v t\u00e9to dob\u011b se na b\u0159ehu Atlantiku ve vesnici Woods Hole sch\u00e1z\u00ed 10 v\u011bdc\u016f z oblasti klimatu, aby diskutovali o dopadech zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se koncentrace CO2 na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed klima. Skupinu vede Jule Charney<\/a> z Massachusetts Institute of Technology, jeden z nejuzn\u00e1van\u011bj\u0161\u00edch v\u011bdc\u016f z oblasti atmosf\u00e9ry 20. stolet\u00ed. V\u00fdsledkem jejich setk\u00e1n\u00ed je zpr\u00e1va o 21 str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 na\u0161i sou\u010dasnost. Zpr\u00e1va jasn\u011b shrnuje poznatky o tehdy pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dinc\u00edch zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho na klima, popisuje ale i nejistoty, kter\u00e9 jsou s predikc\u00ed dopad\u016f spojeny. Hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br zpr\u00e1vy je ale jasn\u00fd:<\/span><\/p>\n

Odhadujeme, \u017ee p\u0159i zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed koncentrace CO2 nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u00edra glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed bude 3 \u2103 s pravd\u011bpodobnou chybou 1,5 \u2103.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Uplynulo 40 let a m\u016f\u017eeme hodnotit jejich p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed koncentrace CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e, m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na <\/span>Mauna Loa na Havaji <\/span><\/a>\u00a0se zv\u00fd\u0161ila od roku 1979 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 21%. Ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed se celosv\u011btov\u00e1 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 povrchov\u00e1 teplota zv\u00fd\u0161ila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b <\/span>o 0,66 \u2103<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Re\u00e1ln\u00e1 data jsou tedy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159esn\u011b shodn\u00e1 s predikovan\u00fdmi v\u00fdsledky. (21 % z 3\u00b0C je 0,63\u00b0C*) Podle re\u00e1ln\u011b nam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f, by p\u0159i zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed koncentrace CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e, m\u011bla glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplota vzr\u016fst na 2,5\u00b0C, co\u017e velmi p\u0159esn\u011b odpov\u00edd\u00e1 predikovan\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm z roku 1979.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Charnyova zpr\u00e1va skv\u011ble ilustruje mo\u017enosti a p\u0159esnost v\u011bdeck\u00e9 pozn\u00e1n\u00ed. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jde o predikci zalo\u017eenou na znalostech fyziky a chemie atmosf\u00e9ry, \u017ee lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat oteplen\u00ed mezi 1,5\u00b0C a 4.5\u00b0C p\u0159i zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO\u2082. Tedy, \u017ee pokud uveden\u00e1 hypot\u00e9za nen\u00ed pravdiv\u00e1, z\u016fstane teplota v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch 40 letech t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stejn\u00e1, nebo se ochlad\u00ed, i p\u0159i tom, \u017ee koncentrace CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e porostou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zapojen\u00ed v\u011bdci z\u00e1rove\u0148 zachov\u00e1vali ke sv\u00fdm z\u00e1v\u011br\u016fm v\u011bdeckou skepsi a sna\u017eili se naj\u00edt faktory, kter\u00e9 by mohly vyvr\u00e1tit jejich z\u00e1v\u011bry. Pozd\u011bji ke sv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b uvedli:<\/span><\/p>\n

Sna\u017eili jsme se naj\u00edt n\u011bjak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 nebo podce\u0148ovan\u00e9 fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed efekty, kter\u00e9 by mohly sn\u00ed\u017eit nebo zvr\u00e1tit r\u016fst odhadovan\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed v d\u016fsledku zdvojn\u00e1soben\u00ed atmosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho CO\u2082, ale nic takov\u00e9 jsme nena\u0161li.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Nyn\u00ed \u017eijeme v dob\u011b, kterou v\u011bdci p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli. O dopadech spalov\u00e1n\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv v\u00edme <\/span>mnohon\u00e1sobn\u011b v\u00edce.<\/span><\/a> A zn\u00e1me i dopady zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty na na\u0161i spole\u010dnost i samotnou planetu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017dijeme klimatickou krizi a mus\u00edme jednat. Sami za sebe, se sv\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00e1teli, v na\u0161ich m\u011bstech, v na\u0161ich st\u00e1tech. Klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna je p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost opustit fosiln\u00ed paliva a p\u0159ej\u00edt na udr\u017eiteln\u00fd zp\u016fsob \u017eivota na na\u0161\u00ed planet\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

#SpoluProKlima<\/a><\/p>\n

* v\u00fdpo\u010det jsme do \u010dl\u00e1nku p\u0159idali pouze pro lep\u0161\u00ed orientaci \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e. Ani z na\u0161eho \u010dl\u00e1nku, ani z p\u016fvodn\u00edho \u010dl\u00e1nku pana profesora Nichollse nevypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o p\u0159\u00edmou \u00fam\u011brnost.<\/p>\n

Pozn\u00e1mka k p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edm o dob\u00e1ch ledov\u00fdch:<\/em><\/p>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nky a domn\u011bnky, kter\u00e9 se objevily v 70. letech 20 stolet\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 doba ledov\u00e1 zp\u016fsoben\u00e1 \u010dlov\u011bkem byly zalo\u017eeny na skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee v\u011bt\u0161ina tehdej\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdroby energie z fosiln\u00edch paliv produkovala obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed emis\u00ed s\u00edry (SOx<\/a>). Emise s\u00edry zvy\u0161uj\u00ed albedo (odrazivost) zemsk\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9ry a vedou tak k jej\u00edmu ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed. Dokonce k tomuto t\u00e9matu vy\u0161ly i v\u011bdeck\u00e9 studie, bylo jich relativn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e studi\u00ed o oteplovac\u00edm vlivu CO2, ale m\u00e9dia se t\u00e9matu velmi ochotn\u011b chytla. Studie byly veskrze platn\u00e9, ale v 80. a v 90. letech do\u0161lo po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu omezov\u00e1n\u00ed emis\u00ed s\u00edry. Zdravotn\u00ed a environment\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady imis\u00ed s\u00edry donutili st\u00e1ty k ochran\u011b ovzdu\u0161\u00ed. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 doba ledov\u00e1 tedy nenastala a pokud n\u00e1s n\u011bjak\u00e1 \u010dek\u00e1, bude to rozhodn\u011b v \u0159\u00e1du tis\u00edc\u016f let. Te\u010f je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed probl\u00e9m klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

EDIT: D\u011bkujeme Radku K\u0159\u00ed\u017ekovi za zp\u011btnou vazbu ke \u010dl\u00e1nku a n\u00e1vrh \u00faprav v textu.<\/p>\n

Block content is empty. Check the block’s settings or remove it.<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159ed n\u011bkolika dny uplynulo 50 let od prvn\u00edho kroku \u010dlov\u011bka na m\u011bs\u00edci. Skv\u011bl\u00fd doklad mo\u017enost\u00ed v\u011bdy a lidsk\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed. Nen\u00ed to ale jedin\u00fd d\u016fkaz schopnost\u00ed v\u011bdy, kter\u00fd bychom si m\u011bli…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":3912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[19,20],"p4-page-type":[16],"class_list":["post-3909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energeticka-revoluce","tag-ovzdusi","tag-zmena-klimatu","p4-page-type-clanek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3909"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3909\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15690,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3909\/revisions\/15690"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3909"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=3909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}