{"id":5020,"date":"2019-11-25T15:02:41","date_gmt":"2019-11-25T13:02:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/?p=5020"},"modified":"2021-12-01T13:32:03","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T12:32:03","slug":"budeme-svitit-svickami-jak-se-energeticke-predpovedi-netrefily","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/clanek\/5020\/budeme-svitit-svickami-jak-se-energeticke-predpovedi-netrefily\/","title":{"rendered":"Budeme sv\u00edtit sv\u00ed\u010dkami? Jak se energetick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi netrefily"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

V \u010desk\u00e9 debat\u011b o budoucnosti energetiky se opakovan\u011b objevuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e1 siln\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed o tom, \u017ee pokud se nepostav\u00ed tato \u010di jin\u00e1 (v\u011bt\u0161inou jadern\u00e1) elektr\u00e1rna, nebudeme m\u00edt \u010d\u00edm sv\u00edtit a budeme muset elekt\u0159inu dov\u00e1\u017eet. Sv\u00edtit m\u00e1me \u010d\u00edm a nav\u00edc dvacet procent elekt\u0159iny st\u00e1le vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme. Poj\u010fme se pod\u00edvat na n\u011bkter\u00e9 exempl\u00e1rn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpady z minulosti.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

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Na riziko, \u017ee elekt\u0159ina z Temel\u00edna se bude vyv\u00e1\u017eet, ani\u017e by se uzav\u00edraly uheln\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, varovala organizace Greenpeace ji\u017e v roce 2000. Realita n\u00e1m bohu\u017eel dala za pravdu. (c) Greenpeace – Pavel Ho\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

V minulosti n\u00e1m \u010cEZ tvrdil, \u017ee po dostavb\u011b blok\u016f elektr\u00e1rny Temel\u00edn, zav\u0159e \u010d\u00e1st uheln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny v\u0161ak nikdy nezav\u0159el, a ve\u0161kerou nadbyte\u010dnou elekt\u0159inu za\u010dal  \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017eet. P\u0159ed dokon\u010den\u00edm Temel\u00edna p\u0159itom tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 vehementn\u011b pop\u00edral, jak se lze do\u010d\u00edst v dobov\u00e9m rozhovoru:
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Tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee se vyveze polovina elekt\u0159iny z Temel\u00edna bylo nakonec tak\u00e9 nepravdiv\u00e9. Vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed se toti\u017e zhruba stejn\u011b elekt\u0159iny, co Temel\u00edn vyrob\u00ed. \u00a9 Archiv: Facebook Atomov\u00fd st\u00e1t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Obl\u00edbenou discipl\u00ednou je p\u0159est\u0159elit budouc\u00ed spot\u0159ebu. \u010cEZ v roce 1994 o\u010dek\u00e1val, \u017ee \u201epokud bude hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt \u010cR r\u016fst ro\u010dn\u011b o 3,5 %, bude to znamenat ro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst ve spot\u0159eb\u011b elekt\u0159iny o 2 a\u017e 3 %\u201c. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst byl posl\u00e9ze sice slab\u0161\u00ed, nicm\u00e9n\u011b slu\u0161n\u00fd \u2013 jenom\u017ee spot\u0159eba elektrick\u00e9 energie b\u011bhem devades\u00e1t\u00fdch let klesala. V roce 2004 st\u00e1tn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 koncepce p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala dne\u0161n\u00ed spot\u0159ebu na cca 66 TWh, re\u00e1ln\u00e9 spot\u0159eba je ale jen na 61 TWh. Pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9 koncepce odhad postupn\u011b korigovaly, na 64 TWh (koncepce z 2010) a koncepce z roku 2015 se ji\u017e trefila.<\/p>\n\n

N\u011bkdy se jedn\u00e1 o pouh\u00e9 \u201cp\u0159est\u0159elen\u00ed\u201d, n\u011bkdy jde ale o zjevn\u011b v\u011bdom\u00e9 manipulace. B\u00fdval\u00fd ministr pr\u016fmyslu a obchodu Martin \u0158\u00edman vyvolal velk\u00fd poplach, kdy\u017e v \u00fanoru 2007 p\u0159ed podnikatelskou elitou na \u017dof\u00ednsk\u00e9m f\u00f3ru tvrdil, \u017ee b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let hroz\u00ed nedostatek elektrick\u00e9 energie<\/a>. Noviny jej citovaly: \u201eU\u017e na p\u0159elomu desetilet\u00ed\u2026budeme spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vat v\u00edc elekt\u0159iny, ne\u017e dok\u00e1\u017eeme vyrobit.\u201c Av\u0161ak o pouh\u00e9 t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce pozd\u011bji p\u0159edlo\u017eil vl\u00e1d\u011b zpr\u00e1vu, kde anoncoval, \u017ee p\u0159ebytek (\u010dist\u00fd export) naopak stoupne z tehdej\u0161\u00edch 13 TWh na 18 TWh v letech 2010\u20132012.<\/p>\n\n

Motivace pro dramatick\u00fd rozpor v progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch byla evidentn\u00ed. Prvn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, kter\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1vala kritick\u00fd deficit, slou\u017eila jako argument pro roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed uheln\u00fdch dol\u016f. Druh\u00e1, kde stejn\u00fd ministr ve stejn\u00e9 dob\u011b hl\u00e1sil velk\u00e9 p\u0159ebytky (a r\u016fst v\u00fdroby), vznikla coby podklad pro \u017ealobu proti verdiktu Evropsk\u00e9 komise, podle n\u011bho\u017e \u010desk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl nem\u00e1 d\u00e1le zvy\u0161ovat emise oxidu uhli\u010dit\u00e9ho.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

V roce 2008 \u010cEZ i MPO svorn\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 z\u00e1sadn\u00ed nedostatek elekt\u0159iny b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let, jak ukazuj\u00ed dva n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00e9 obr\u00e1zky z archivn\u00edch prezentac\u00ed:<\/p>\n\n

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Budeme bez nov\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho bez elekt\u0159iny? To u\u017e tu jednou bylo…<\/strong> <\/h4>\n\n

Obdobn\u011b u\u017e v roce 2004 prohl\u00e1sil n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra Martin Pecina<\/a>: „Bu\u010f budeme m\u00edt nov\u00fd jadern\u00fd zdroj, nebo nebudeme za patn\u00e1ct let sv\u00edtit.“ Kdy\u017e pomineme, \u017ee Pecinovi asi nikdo nevysv\u011btlil, \u017ee i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nedostatku elekt\u0159iny se d\u00e1 dov\u00e1\u017eet ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed a nemus\u00ed se hned sahat po sv\u00ed\u010dk\u00e1ch, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee jeho katastrofick\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 byl \u00fapln\u011b mimo i s ohledem na budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj. O patn\u00e1ct let pozd\u011bji nov\u00fd jadern\u00fd zdroj nem\u00e1me a nejen\u017ee elekt\u0159inou sv\u00edt\u00edme, ale dokonce vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme zhruba 20 % elekt\u0159iny, kterou vyrob\u00edme, jak ukazuje n\u00ed\u017ee uveden\u00fd graf: <\/p>\n\n

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Zdroj: ER\u00da<\/em><\/p>\n\n

Systematick\u00e1 selh\u00e1n\u00ed v energetick\u00fdch predikc\u00edch ale nejsou jen specialitou \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. Dob\u0159e je zmapovan\u00e9 t\u0159eba opakovan\u00e9 podhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f Sv\u011btovou energetickou agenturou. N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf ukazuje, jak systematicky podce\u0148uje v\u00fdvoje ro\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstku instalovan\u00e9 kapacity fotovoltaick\u00fdch panel\u016f. Oran\u017eov\u00e1 k\u0159ivka WEO 2015 v n\u011bm ukazuje, \u017ee v roce 2015 agentura p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bla ro\u010dn\u00ed instalaci 40 GW sol\u00e1r\u016f a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstky ka\u017ed\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm rokem. V realit\u011b p\u0159itom instalace rostou ka\u017ed\u00fdm rokem a\u017e na 110 GW v roce 2018.<\/p>\n\n

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V \u010desk\u00e9 debat\u011b o budoucnosti energetiky se opakovan\u011b objevuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e1 siln\u00e1 tvrzen\u00ed o tom, \u017ee pokud se nepostav\u00ed tato \u010di jin\u00e1 elektr\u00e1rna, nebudeme m\u00edt \u010d\u00edm sv\u00edtit a budeme muset elekt\u0159inu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":5021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"not set","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"not set","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[25,34],"p4-page-type":[16],"class_list":["post-5020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energeticka-revoluce","tag-konec-doby-fosilni","tag-uhelnakomise","p4-page-type-clanek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/27"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5020"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15628,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5020\/revisions\/15628"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5020"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=5020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}