{"id":5927,"date":"2020-02-20T09:27:38","date_gmt":"2020-02-20T08:27:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/?p=5927"},"modified":"2023-12-05T10:38:58","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T09:38:58","slug":"jak-souvisi-klimaticka-zmena-s-extremy-pocasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/magazin\/5927\/jak-souvisi-klimaticka-zmena-s-extremy-pocasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Jak souvis\u00ed klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna s extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty na zemsk\u00e9m povrchu se od pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 revoluce zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 1 \u00b0C<\/a>. Toto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed souvis\u00ed s lidskou aktivitou<\/a> \u2013 emis\u00ed aerosol\u016f, zm\u011bnou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed p\u016fdy, emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edmi vlivy. R\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty je z\u00e1rove\u0148 nejjasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke zm\u011bn\u011b klimatu. My lid\u00e9 ov\u0161em p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nevn\u00edm\u00e1me tuto \u201epr\u016fm\u011brnou teplotu\u201c vlastn\u00edmi smysly. Jeden z d\u016fsledk\u016f zm\u011bn klimatu ale vn\u00edm\u00e1me velmi z\u0159eteln\u011b, a sice extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n

Vztah po\u010das\u00ed a klimatu<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

Ne\u017e se pust\u00edme do popis\u016f ork\u00e1n\u016f, ohniv\u00fdch smr\u0161t\u00ed a bou\u0159ek, je t\u0159eba osv\u011btlit vztah mezi po\u010das\u00edm a klimatem. A\u010dkoli jsou po\u010das\u00ed a klima nerozlu\u010dn\u00fdmi souputn\u00edky, mus\u00edme mezi nimi rozli\u0161ovat. Po\u010das\u00ed je \u010dist\u011b kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitost, vyv\u00edj\u00ed se v hodin\u00e1ch, n\u011bkdy se m\u011bn\u00ed z minuty na minutu. Dnes m\u016f\u017eeme m\u00edt kr\u00e1sn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed, z\u00edtra de\u0161tivo. Klima, na rozd\u00edl od po\u010das\u00ed, m\u00e1 dlouhodob\u00fd charakter. A co je ve vztahu mezi po\u010das\u00edm a klimatem d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9: po\u010das\u00ed je klimatu pod\u0159\u00edzeno. Kr\u00e1sn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad vztahu mezi klimatem a po\u010das\u00edm p\u0159edstavil Neil de Grasse Tyson p\u0159i sv\u00e9 proch\u00e1zce se psem. A\u017e p\u016fjdete se psem, tak\u00e9 si vztah mezi po\u010das\u00edm a klimatem m\u016f\u017eete vyzkou\u0161et. <\/p>\n\n

\n<\/lite-youtube>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n

A\u017e vyraz\u00edte se psem na vod\u00edtku, pes bude b\u011bhat nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b ze strany na stranu, \u010dmuchat zde a zase jinde. Bude se ale moci pohybovat jen tak, jak mu dovol\u00ed vod\u00edtko. Podobn\u011b se chov\u00e1 i po\u010das\u00ed. Stejn\u011b jako je rozsah pohybu psa na vod\u00edtku definov\u00e1n v\u00e1mi a sm\u011brem, kter\u00fdm m\u00ed\u0159\u00edte, je po\u010das\u00ed definov\u00e1no klimatem. Klima je, jak ji\u017e bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno, na rozd\u00edl od po\u010das\u00ed dlouhodob\u00e9, p\u0159edstavuje trend, kter\u00fdm se po\u010das\u00ed \u0159\u00edd\u00ed, klima ur\u010duje r\u016fznorodost po\u010das\u00ed. A pokud se zm\u011bn\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch faktor\u016f klima, zm\u011bn\u00ed se i r\u016fznorodost po\u010das\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n

Dob\u0159e m\u016f\u017eeme tento posun vid\u011bt na pravd\u011bpodobnosti po\u010das\u00ed p\u0159i zm\u011bn\u011b pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty. Z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska jsou pravd\u011bpodobnosti ud\u00e1lost\u00ed spojen\u00fdch s po\u010das\u00edm rozlo\u017eeny na Gaussov\u011b k\u0159ivce. V\u011bt\u0161inu \u010dasu \u2013 nej\u010dast\u011bji \u2013 je relativn\u011b dobr\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed, tedy bez velk\u00fdch extr\u00e9m\u016f. M\u00e9n\u011b \u010dasu p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed ud\u00e1losti jako bou\u0159ky nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011b tepl\u00e9 \u010di studen\u00e9 dny. Nejm\u00e9n\u011b \u010dasto jsme pak sv\u011bdky opravdu extr\u00e9mn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed jako nap\u0159\u00edklad velmi chladn\u00fdch nebo naopak tropick\u00fdch dn\u016f, vysok\u00fdch sr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00fdch \u00fahrn\u016f nebo velmi such\u00fdch dn\u016f. Pokud se ov\u0161em zm\u011bn\u00ed klima, nap\u0159\u00edklad se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota, zm\u011bn\u00ed se i distribuce pravd\u011bpodobnosti po\u010das\u00ed. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee r\u016fst teploty zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost extr\u00e9mn\u011b tepl\u00e9ho po\u010das\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se objev\u00ed mo\u017enost je\u0161t\u011b extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1losti. <\/p>\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n

Cel\u00fd vztah mezi klimatem a extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed je ale komplikovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. A\u010dkoli r\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty opravdu zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost extr\u00e9mn\u00edch projev\u016f po\u010das\u00ed, prok\u00e1zat p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vliv zm\u011bny klimatu u jednotliv\u00fdch<\/em> extr\u00e9mn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed je velmi problematick\u00e9. Experti, kte\u0159\u00ed se zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed vztahem mezi extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed a klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny, rozli\u0161uj\u00ed celkem 4 typy takov\u00e9ho vztahu: <\/p>\n\n

  1. Ud\u00e1lost (typ po\u010das\u00ed) se st\u00e1v\u00e1 s klimatickou zm\u011bnou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. <\/li>
  2. Ud\u00e1lost se st\u00e1v\u00e1 s klimatickou zm\u011bnou m\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1. <\/li>
  3. Nedoch\u00e1z\u00ed k detekovateln\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m v pravd\u011bpodobnosti ud\u00e1losti.<\/li>
  4. Se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi n\u00e1stroji a znalostmi nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 rozhodnout. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n

    P\u0159edstavme si dva p\u0159\u00edklady po\u010das\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vy\u00fastily v extr\u00e9mn\u00ed ud\u00e1losti, a odpov\u011bzme si, jakou roli v t\u011bchto situac\u00edch sehr\u00e1la klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna.<\/p>\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n

    Povodn\u011b v Ben\u00e1tk\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

    Na podzim minul\u00e9ho roku byly Ben\u00e1tky, perla It\u00e1lie, n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t zaplaveny p\u0159\u00edlivovou vlnou. A pr\u00e1v\u011b Ben\u00e1tky, vlastn\u011b cel\u00fd Jadran, jsou dobr\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem toho, jak je n\u011bkdy obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 prov\u00e1zat klimatickou zm\u011bnu s extr\u00e9mn\u00edm po\u010das\u00edm. Se\u0161lo se zde toti\u017e n\u011bkolik jev\u016f, kter\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed s klimatickou zm\u011bnou nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho a dohromady stvo\u0159ily vodn\u00ed monstrum. O co se jedn\u00e1? <\/p>\n\n

    Geografie Jadranu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Kdo jen trochu zn\u00e1 geografii ji\u017en\u00ed Evropy, tak v\u00ed, \u017ee Jadran je relativn\u011b uzav\u0159en\u00e9 mo\u0159e, kter\u00e9 je na sv\u00e9m severoz\u00e1padn\u00edm v\u00fdb\u011b\u017eku v oblasti Ben\u00e1tek i relativn\u011b m\u011blk\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n

    Oblast severoz\u00e1padn\u00edho Jadranu dlouhodob\u011b kles\u00e1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Je toti\u017e sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mal\u00e9 tektonick\u00e9 desky, Adriatic plate, kter\u00e1 je dlouhodob\u011b tla\u010dena Afrikou pod Evropu. <\/p>\n\n

    P\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed v\u011btry<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Pokud dlouho vane v\u00edtr jedn\u00edm sm\u011brem, dok\u00e1\u017ee vodu un\u00e1\u0161et s sebou a tla\u010dit ji p\u0159ed sebou. Pokud vodu \u017eene do m\u011blk\u00e9, uzav\u0159en\u00e9 z\u00e1toky, bude se v n\u00ed z\u00e1konit\u011b zvedat hladina vody. A p\u0159esn\u011b takov\u00fd v\u00edtr v\u00e1l b\u011bhem podzimn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Tento v\u00edtr m\u00e1 dokonce i jm\u00e9no, JUGO (p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b jej najdete i pod n\u00e1zvem \u0160iroko, tento n\u00e1zev pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed ve Slovinsku a It\u00e1lii).<\/p>\n\n

    B\u011bhem zatopen\u00ed Ben\u00e1tek se oblast\u00ed prohnala tlakov\u00e1 n\u00ed\u017ee<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Na mo\u0159i tlakov\u00e1 n\u00ed\u017ee znamen\u00e1 vzdut\u00ed hladiny, \u010dasto i s p\u0159\u00edchodem bou\u0159e a vln, kter\u00e9 hladinu op\u011bt zvy\u0161uj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n

    \u00dapln\u011bk <\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Zrovna panoval \u00fapln\u011bk, p\u0159i n\u011bm\u017e nast\u00e1v\u00e1 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed odliv a p\u0159\u00edliv. P\u0159\u00edlivy na Jadranu (ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad s Biskajsk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem) nejsou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 intenzivn\u00ed, ale p\u0159esto maj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fd vliv. <\/p>\n\n

    Pokud spoj\u00edte v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 body, vznik\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost, kter\u00e9 se v n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed praxi \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201eStorm surge\u201c, tedy bou\u0159kov\u00e1 vlna. Tvrdit, \u017ee zatopen\u00ed Ben\u00e1tek souvis\u00ed se zm\u011bnou klimatu, je tedy velmi o\u0161emetn\u00e9. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ale plat\u00ed, \u017ee klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost takov\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n

    Po\u017e\u00e1ry v Austr\u00e1lii<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n

    Oproti tomu zd\u016fvodn\u011bn\u00ed situace v Austr\u00e1lii nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 komplikovan\u00e9. P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina bezprecedentn\u00edch po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f je podle meteorolog\u016f jasn\u00e1 \u2013 klimatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna. Dlouhodob\u00e9 trendy zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edch se teplot a sni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch se sr\u00e1\u017eek vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ide\u00e1ln\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro vznik rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f. Od roku 1910 stoupla pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 teplota v Austr\u00e1lii zhruba o 1 \u00b0C. P\u0159isuzovat jednotliv\u00e9 po\u017e\u00e1ry p\u0159\u00edmo klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, ale dlouhodob\u00e9 trendy jsou jasn\u00e9. Porovnejte v\u00fdvoj dvou nejz\u00e1sadn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch parametr\u016f pro vznik po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f v \u010dase. (Sr\u00e1\u017eky a teplotu.) Trend je z\u0159ejm\u00fd. (Pro v\u00edce informac\u00ed o dopadech klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny na Austr\u00e1lii a New South Wales doporu\u010dujeme p\u0159\u00edmo Australskou meteorologickou slu\u017ebu<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n

    Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed projevy po\u010das\u00ed nejsou ze sv\u00e9 podstaty \u010dast\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti. R\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty zvy\u0161uje vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f po\u010das\u00ed. I se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi znalostmi je st\u00e1le relativn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 jasn\u011b prok\u00e1zat propojen\u00ed mezi jedn\u00edm extr\u00e9mn\u00edm jevem a r\u016fstem glob\u00e1ln\u00edch teplot, obecn\u011b ale m\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee se rozhodn\u011b zvy\u0161uje \u010detnost takov\u00fdch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n

    Zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 mapa<\/a> extr\u00e9mn\u00edch jev\u016f po\u010das\u00ed i s hodnocen\u00edm vlivu klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny – najdete na webu Carbon brief. <\/a><\/p>\n\n

    \n\n

    V\u0161echny \u010dl\u00e1nky z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho vyd\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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    Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty na zemsk\u00e9m povrchu se od pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 revoluce zv\u00fd\u0161ily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 1 \u00b0C. Toto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed souvis\u00ed s lidskou aktivitou \u2013 emis\u00ed aerosol\u016f, zm\u011bnou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed p\u016fdy, emis\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plyn\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edmi vlivy.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":5933,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"not set","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"not set","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"p4-page-type":[35],"class_list":["post-5927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-priroda","p4-page-type-magazin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5927"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15574,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5927\/revisions\/15574"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5927"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/czech\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=5927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}