{"id":68335,"date":"2025-09-09T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T01:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/?p=68335"},"modified":"2025-11-24T14:48:16","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T06:48:16","slug":"china-can-peak-coal-power-generation-and-power-sector-emissions-in-2025-greenpeace-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/press\/68335\/china-can-peak-coal-power-generation-and-power-sector-emissions-in-2025-greenpeace-report\/","title":{"rendered":"China can peak coal power generation and power sector emissions in 2025: Greenpeace report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Beijing \u2014<\/strong> According to a new report by Greenpeace East Asia, China is able to peak its power emissions in 2025 at 5.2\u202fbillion\u202ftonnes, with coal power generation peaking at 5.55\u202ftrillion\u202fkWh, and peaking could save up to 970 billion RMB.<\/p>\n\n

\u200b\u200bGreenpeace East Asia Beijing-based climate & energy project manager Gao Yuhe (she\/her) said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u201c2025 is a critical window for China to reshape its power system. China\u2019s power sector is on track to peak emissions as early as 2025, and this will facilitate an earlier peak in societal emissions. But this requires a combination of stronger renewable energy deployment, high-efficiency electrification, and no new coal.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

The report outlined four power transition scenarios for China, incorporating national low\u2011carbon power transition targets and projected power supply and demand trends for 2025\u20132035. The scenarios are built around two key variables: electrification speed1<\/sup> (high-efficiency vs. accelerated growth) and non-fossil energy deployment pace2<\/sup> (baseline vs. accelerated development).<\/p>\n\n

Among them, Scenario 3\u2014featuring high-efficiency electrification and accelerated non-fossil energy deployment\u2014emerges as the most effective for ensuring power decarbonisation, energy security, and economic feasibility.<\/p>\n\n

Key targets under this scenario include an average annual power growth rate of 2.8% during China\u2019s 15th Five\u2011Year Plan (2026\u20132030) and an installed capacity of 3100 GW of wind and solar and 270\u202fGW of new energy storage by 2030.<\/p>\n\n

In this most ambitious scenario, coal power generation is projected to peak at 5.55 trillion kWh, and power sector carbon emissions are expected to peak at 5.2 billion tonnes in 2025, then enter a plateau. This is up to 160 million tonnes lower than all three other scenarios\u202f.<\/p>\n\n

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By 2030, non\u2011fossil energy\u2019s share of power generation could rise to 57%, with wind and solar reaching 35.8%. Power sector emissions would decrease by 11.9%, falling to 4.58 billion tonnes, compared to 2025 levels.<\/p>\n\n

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The most ambitious scenario also demonstrates clear cost advantages. Compared to the baseline non\u2011fossil scenarios, it could save 110 to 400 billion RMB3<\/sup> in total power system costs over 2025\u20132035 by reducing coal reliance, even after accounting for increased investments in renewables and flexible resources. Compared to accelerated electrification scenarios, it could save 670 to 970 billion RMB3<\/sup> by avoiding over-investment and inefficiencies.<\/p>\n\n

However, according to Greenpeace East Asia\u2019s June research briefing<\/a>, China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the first quarter of 2025, after 2024 saw a year-on-year decrease in new approvals for coal-fired power plants to 62.24 GW. In Q1 2025, China\u2019s wind and solar capacity rose to 1,482 GW, surpassing thermal power for the first time. Wind and solar generation also met all the new electricity demand.<\/p>\n\n

Gao said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u201cRenewables are increasingly able to meet all of China\u2019s new electricity demand in 2025. China now has every reason to pursue an early emissions peak in the power sector. China must accelerate the integration of renewable energy as the mainstay of the power system. It must stop relying on coal power. This shift is essential to keeping China’s energy transition on track. A clear timetable for phasing out coal power should be formulated, as every new coal approval will limit the space for renewables.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

Greenpeace East Asia urges policymakers to seize the momentum to accelerate power system transformation. Recommendations include:<\/p>\n\n