{"id":68510,"date":"2025-11-25T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/?p=68510"},"modified":"2025-12-24T12:58:16","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T04:58:16","slug":"chinas-power-sector-emissions-peak-within-reach-as-new-coal-power-approvals-decline-to-41-77-gw-in-q1-q3-2025-greenpeace-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/press\/68510\/chinas-power-sector-emissions-peak-within-reach-as-new-coal-power-approvals-decline-to-41-77-gw-in-q1-q3-2025-greenpeace-report\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s power sector emissions peak within reach as new coal power approvals decline to 41.77 GW in Q1-Q3 2025: Greenpeace report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Beijing \u2014<\/strong> New research from Greenpeace East Asia shows that China approved 41.77 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity nationwide in the first three quarters of 2025, and if the current pace continues, 2025 is on track to be the second-lowest year for approvals in the 2021\u20132025 period and would mark a second consecutive year of decline.<\/p>\n\n

Greenpeace East Asia Beijing-based climate & energy project manager Gao Yuhe (she\/her) said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u201cChina’s power-sector emissions peak is within reach as early as 2025. Yet, maintaining momentum to curb coal approvals remains critical: 41.77 GW approved in nine months alone still threatens this trajectory. Clear policy signals to cap coal and boost renewables are essential to accelerate both the power sector and societal emissions peaks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

Coal Capacity Permitted During the 14th FYP1<\/sup> (2021-2025)<\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Greenpeace East Asia reviewed o\ufb03cial documents, including project approvals and environmental impact assessments, to track new coal approvals in China by the end of Q3 2025.<\/p>\n\n

With the 41.77 GW additions in Q1-Q3 2025, total coal capacity approved from 2021 to Q3 2025 now stands at 340 GW\u2014more than twice the total permitted in the last five-year period. Among them, non-CHP (combined heat and power) coal projects have fallen sharply\u2014from 40\u201350 permits per year at the 2022\u20132023 peak, to 23 in 2024, and 16 in Q1-Q3 2025\u2014while CHP project counts have stayed relatively stable annually. However, large-scale units (\u2265660 MW) still dominate, accounting for over 90% of newly permitted units.<\/p>\n\n

Our research further indicates that the total investment in coal projects permitted in Q1-Q3 2025 is estimated at RMB 171.5\u2013181.5 billion,2<\/sup> with a state-capital\u2013heavy structure: central SOEs and local SOEs account for roughly 40% and 45%, respectively, while private investment remains below 10%.<\/p>\n\n

Investment in Newly Permitted Projects: Q1\u2013Q3 2025<\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Geographically, in eastern China, Jiangsu (6.64 GW) and Henan (4.02 GW) rebounded after low 2024 volumes, ranking first and third nationwide for permitted capacity in Q1\u2013Q3 2025. By contrast, other major power-demand and generation provinces\u2014Shandong (1.16 GW), Guangdong (0.42 GW), Anhui (0 GW)\u2014have continued to decline from their 2023 peaks.<\/p>\n\n

Coal Capacity Permitted in Eastern Provinces During the 14th FYP<\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Since 2024, permitting has shifted west. The western provinces\u2019 share of nationwide permits rose from roughly one-third in 2021\u20132023 to 48% in 2024, and to more than 50% in Q1\u2013Q3 2025. From 2024 through Q3 2025, the top three provinces by permitted capacity were Xinjiang (11.65 GW), Inner Mongolia (10.64 GW), and Gansu (10.02 GW). Guizhou (2.64GW), Sichuan (2GW), and Chongqing (2GW) posted their highest 14th FYP levels in Q1\u2013Q3 2025.<\/p>\n\n

Coal Capacity Permitted in Western Provinces During the 14th FYP<\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Furthermore, Greenpeace East Asia\u2019s review of 39 non-CHP projects permitted in 2024\u20132025 finds that \u201censuring power supply security\u201d remains the primary rationale, cited in over 70% of cases. \u201cProviding system flexibility\u201d ranks second, cited in more than 40% of projects. Over half of these projects cite multiple rationales. Of the 17 projects explicitly citing \u201cproviding system flexibility,\u201d 15 (nearly 90%) also cite \u201censuring power supply security,\u201d indicating a hybrid functional positioning.<\/p>\n\n

Share of Construction Rationales Cited for Permitted Non-CHP Projects (2024\u2013Q3 2025) (Multiple rationales permitted per project) <\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Gao said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u201cThe rationale for new coal power is increasingly framed around ‘power supply security’ and ‘system flexibility,’ yet these new coal plants risk becoming stranded assets in a rapidly decarbonizing power system. Local governments must not rely on coal as the default means of ensuring energy security.  Repositioning coal as a genuinely flexible support resource\u2014not a baseload provider\u2014is critical to the further development of the renewable-dominant New Power System.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

In terms of renewables development, our research finds that the 2021\u20132025 period has seen unprecedented growth. By September 2025, China\u2019s installed power capacity reached 3,720 GW, with renewables accounting for 59.1 %.3<\/sup> In early 2025, combined wind and solar capacity surpassed coal for the first time, marking a new phase in China\u2019s power-system transition.<\/p>\n\n

14th FYP Solar Capacity Increase Targets and Completion Progress by Province<\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Solar build-out has run well ahead of most provinces\u2019 14th FYP targets in the 2021\u20132025 period. 29 of the 31 provinces set explicit PV goals; by H1 2025, 22 had already met or exceeded them.4<\/sup> Henan, Chongqing, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang surpassed 300% of their planned capacity, and Fujian exceeded 400%.<\/p>\n\n

China\u2019s Monthly New Solar Capacity Addition (2024\u20132025)<\/em><\/p>\n\n

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Gao said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

\u201cWith the rapid expansion of renewables, China\u2019s power sector can peak carbon emissions as early as 2025. However, the recent sharp drop in solar additions and continued growth in coal capacity create structural headwinds. Sustained, high-speed renewable deployment alongside truly clean flexible resources is critical to keep China\u2019s decarbonization pathway on track and ensure energy security without relying on more polluting coal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

To secure a low-carbon, reliable, and cost-effective power system during China\u2019s next five-year plan period, Greenpeace East Asia urges the country\u2019s policymakers to:<\/p>\n\n