{"id":69289,"date":"2026-09-22T17:37:27","date_gmt":"2026-09-22T09:37:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/?p=69289"},"modified":"2026-09-22T17:37:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T09:37:30","slug":"south-koreas-ai-mega-projects-threaten-national-carbon-targets-even-with-220gw-renewable-expansion-greenpeace-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/press\/69289\/south-koreas-ai-mega-projects-threaten-national-carbon-targets-even-with-220gw-renewable-expansion-greenpeace-report\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea&#8217;s AI Mega Projects Threaten National Carbon Targets Even with 220GW Renewable Expansion: Greenpeace Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em>Greenpeace and KBF Release Power Sector Analysis Ahead of 12th Basic Plan<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Adding 30GW in Demand Quintuples Gas Generation, Exceeding GHG Target by 1.6x Despite Coal Phaseout<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em>Calls for Gas Utilization Caps and Moratorium on New Construction in Upcoming 12th Basic Plan<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SEOUL <\/strong>\u2014 Despite South Korea&#8217;s target to expand renewable energy capacity to 220GW by 2040, incorporating power demand from upcoming industrial mega-projects into the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand will make achieving the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) carbon reduction goals virtually impossible, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">International environmental organization Greenpeace East Asia and civil society network Korea Beyond Fossil Fuels (KBF) released results from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/korea\/report\/38353\/report-2026-grid-scenario\/\"><em>Alternative Scenarios for Power Sector Decarbonization<\/em><\/a>, a study conducted by energy research institute PLANIT. Using the open-source Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) model, the study analyzed power sector pathways based on the 11th Basic Plan, optimizing grid operations and buildout costs to assess emissions impacts.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The analysis reveals that integrating mega-project power demands causes power sector emissions to far exceed the NDC target cap of 56 MtCO\u2082e, even if coal-fired power plants are completely phased out. Gas power generation is heavily expanded to bridge the gap left by retiring coal and to supply the added mega-project load. The study modeled demand increases of 20GW and 30GW, referencing the 12th Basic Plan Committee&#8217;s August announcement projecting a 26.6\u201326.8GW demand increase over prior baselines.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mega-Project Power Demand Scenarios: Changes in Gas, Renewable Energy, and Emissions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Scenario<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Gas Capacity<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Gas Generation<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Renewable Capacity<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Renewable Generation<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Emissions (vs. NDC Target)<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Coal Phaseout<\/strong> <em>(No mega demand, 15% gas utilization cap)<\/em><\/td><td>33 GW<\/td><td>44 TWh<\/td><td>249 GW<\/td><td>359 TWh<\/td><td>37 MtCO\u2082e <em>(two-thirds of target)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>+ 20GW Mega Demand<\/strong><\/td><td>33 GW<\/td><td>208 TWh <em>(\u25b2164 TWh)<\/em><\/td><td>280 GW<\/td><td>363 TWh <em>(\u25b24 TWh)<\/em><\/td><td>84 MtCO\u2082e <em>(1.5x target)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>+ 30GW Mega Demand<\/strong><\/td><td>33 GW<\/td><td>224 TWh <em>(\u25b2180 TWh)<\/em><\/td><td>344 GW<\/td><td>441 TWh <em>(\u25b282 TWh)<\/em><\/td><td>90 MtCO\u2082e <em>(1.6x target)<\/em><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When a 30GW demand surge from mega-projects is factored in, gas power generation spikes nearly fivefold to 224 TWh (a 180 TWh increase) compared to the baseline coal phaseout scenario (44 TWh). Consequently, greenhouse gas emissions reach approximately 90 MtCO\u2082e\u2014exceeding the enhanced NDC target by 1.6 times. This result follows lifting the 15% capacity factor restriction on gas power plants to meet heavy demand. Under a 20GW additional demand scenario, gas generation still increases 4.7-fold to 208 TWh, sending emissions to 84 MtCO\u2082e (1.5 times the target).<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Jahyeon Kim, Energy Transition Team Lead at PLANIT, noted:<\/strong><em> &#8220;The finding that additional mega-project demand is met primarily by gas power demonstrates that expanding renewables alone won&#8217;t deliver real carbon reductions without strict regulations on gas generation. To prevent the phase-out of aging coal plants from simply leading to reliance on gas\u2014another fossil fuel\u2014a decisive policy shift is urgently required, such as halting the construction of new gas-fired power plants and capping gas utilization rates to redefine gas power strictly as a peaking resource.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" title=\"Photo2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-2048x1152.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-eastasia-stateless\/2026\/09\/9c8f4735-photo2-510x287.jpg 510w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">International environmental organization Greenpeace projected a message onto the exterior wall of the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment at the Government Complex Sejong, calling for a reduction in gas-fired power generation and an expansion of renewable energy in the 12th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Minju Shin, Climate and Energy Campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia, criticized: <\/strong><em>&#8220;Despite the government&#8217;s target of expanding 220GW of renewables by 2040, mega-project demand has flashed a red light for carbon reduction goals. In particular, remarks by Climate, Energy and Environment Minister Kim Sung-hwan claiming that gas expansion is unavoidable contradict both the 11th Basic Plan\u2019s decision to reduce LNG reliance from 26.8% to 10.6%, as well as the NDC itself.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Shin added: <\/strong><em>&#8220;To prevent the upcoming 12th Basic Plan from deteriorating into a blueprint for megaproject-driven carbon emissions, it is imperative to rigorously examine whether the projected demand for these megaprojects has been overstated. Expanding gas power must not be accepted as a foregone conclusion without verifying demand forecasts and assessing alternative scenarios utilizing renewables and energy storage systems (ESS). The 12th Basic Plan must be thoroughly grounded in actionable pathways for renewable energy expansion and carbon neutrality to ensure the NDC targets are achieved.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Media Inquiries<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Euihyun Choi, Communications Officer, Greenpeace Korea, <a href=\"mailto:nchoi@greenpeace.org\">nchoi@greenpeace.org<\/a>, +82 10-5950-0369<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Press Release (Korean):<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/korea\/press\/38354\/presslease-megaproject_scenario\/?utm_source=gemini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Greenpeace Korea Press Release<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Full Report:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/korea\/report\/38353\/report-2026-grid-scenar?utm_source=gemini\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download Full Grid Scenario Analysis (PDF)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Media Assets:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=insert_photo_link_here&amp;utm_source=gemini&amp;authuser=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">High-Res On-Site Performance Photos<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite South Korea\u2019s target to expand renewable energy capacity to 220GW by 2040, incorporating power demand from upcoming industrial mega-projects into the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand will make achieving the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) carbon reduction goals virtually impossible, according to a new report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":69290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/press\/69289\/south-koreas-ai-mega-projects-threaten-national-carbon-targets-even-with-220gw-renewable-expansion-greenpeace-report\/","p4_seo_meta_title":"","p4_seo_meta_description":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[100,22,18,6],"p4-page-type":[14],"class_list":["post-69289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-energy","tag-renewable-energy","tag-reduce-air-pollution","tag-coal","tag-climate-impacts","p4-page-type-press"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69289","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69289"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69289\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69294,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69289\/revisions\/69294"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69290"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69289"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69289"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69289"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/eastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=69289"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}