Press release - December 18, 2017
The International Energy Agency has released its annual Coal 2017 report, which recognizes the fact that coal has peaked in China and is on its way out in most developed countries, but remains bullish on coal at the expense of renewable energy in countries like India and Southeast Asia.
Delhi | 18 December 2017 The International Energy Agency has released its annual Coal 2017 report, which recognizes the fact that coal has peaked in China and is on its way out in most developed countries, but remains bullish on coal at the expense of renewable energy in countries like India and Southeast Asia.
Lauri Myllyvirta, Global Campaigner, Coal and Air Pollution, Greenpeace said, "The IEA is ignoring the renewable energy revolution that’s sweeping across India and the impact it will have on the already stalled and suffering coal industry in the country.”
“The IEA coal market forecasts remain incredibly skewed towards industry viewpoints, with the report sponsored by Chinese coal miner Shenhua and the advisors including a who's who of the world's largest coal mining and burning companies.
“The report's forecasts loosely reflect the IEA New Policies Scenario which is famous for its abject failure to anticipate the clean energy revolution that has seen global coal demand stagnate. The projections are representative of a future in which renewable energy market growth suddenly and unexplainably hits a brick wall and stops completely. In the real world, relying on such scenarios will lead to overestimating coal consumption.”
Key observations from the report:
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The projected volumes of coal consumption would mean the world drifting very far off the track to the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming below 1.5oC to 2oC.
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The outlook in India, the main growth market in IEAs forecasts, is likely one of the places where IEA's outrageously bearish outlook on renewables is skewing the picture. India is one of the markets where wind and solar technology is already delivering power at a lower cost than new coal-fired power plants.
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The projections for the U.S. coal power sector are outdated already when coming out of print - 31 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants have announced retirement between 2018 and 2022, with 12 gigawatts of retirements announced this year. Yet the IEA only projects 18 gigawatts, or a bit more than half of what has already been locked in. This is another case of the IEA's coal-industry-sponsored projections being incapable of reflecting, let alone forecasting real-world trends towards clean energy.
Notes:
[1] The IEA coal report can be found here
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