{"id":67192,"date":"2026-07-09T19:18:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T12:18:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/indonesia\/?p=67192"},"modified":"2026-07-20T21:16:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T14:16:48","slug":"terjebak-carbon-lock-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/indonesia\/siaran-pers\/67192\/terjebak-carbon-lock-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Terjebak Carbon Lock-In, Ambisi Dekarbonisasi Sistem Ketenagalistrikan Indonesia Dipertanyakan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Jakarta, 9 Juli 2026<\/strong> \u2013 Komitmen ambisius Pemerintah Indonesia untuk memangkas emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) sebesar 5,42\u201318,24% dibanding skenario dasar pada tahun 2030 serta target megaproyek PLTS 100 GW yang dimulai tahun ini menghadapi tembok besar. <\/p>\n\n

Laporan terbaru mengungkapkan bahwa Indonesia tengah mengalami kondisi carbon lock-in<\/em>, di mana tata kelola sistem ketenagalistrikan nasional secara struktural masih didesain untuk memprioritaskan dan mengunci dominasi bahan bakar fosil, meskipun teknologi energi baru terbarukan (EBT) kini jauh lebih kompetitif. Laporan ini merupakan hasil kolaborasi Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat Universitas Indonesia dengan Greenpeace Indonesia.<\/p>\n\n

“Program PLTS 100 GW yang dimulai tahun 2026 ini berisiko besar menjadi sekadar proyek seremonial yang sia-sia jika jaringan transmisi kita masih dikunci oleh kepentingan pembangkit fosil. Tanpa reformasi tata kelola yang radikal\u2014mulai dari transparansi pemodelan hingga penerapan skema power wheeling<\/em>\u2014investasi hijau apa pun hanya akan menjadi tempelan di dalam sistem ketenagalistrikan yang masih kotor dan kaku,\u201d tegas Leonard Simanjuntak, Kepala Greenpeace Indonesia.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

Meskipun pemerintah menargetkan pangsa EBT mencapai 29,7\u201334,3% pada tahun 2034, dokumen RUPTL 2025\u20132034 justru masih merencanakan tambahan kapasitas pembangkit gas sebesar 10,3 GW. Tidak hanya itu, batubara diproyeksikan tetap menjadi raja dengan mendominasi 46,8% pasokan listrik hingga 2034. Ketimpangan ini diperparah oleh realisasi bauran EBT hingga tahun lalu (2025) yang baru menyentuh angka ~16%, jauh dari target yang sebelumnya ditetapkan dalam RUKN 2019-2038 sebesar 23%.<\/p>\n\n

Laporan tersebut mengidentifikasi empat mekanisme utama yang saling mengunci sistem ketenagalistrikan Indonesia pada ketergantungan fosil:<\/p>\n\n

    \n
  1. Perencanaan yang Terdistorsi: Pemodelan ketenagalistrikan masih menggunakan asumsi yang tidak realistis di mana harga batubara dipatok di bawah harga pasar melalui mekanisme Domestic Price Obligation<\/em> (DPO), serta mengabaikan biaya eksternal emisi GRK, sehingga pembangkit fosil selalu “terlihat” paling murah.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Pengadaan yang Lambat: Ketidaksinkronan perencanaan dan pelaksanaan lapangan membuat realisasi kapasitas EBT hingga 2025 baru mencapai 51,4% dari target RUPTL.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Kontrak PJBL yang Kaku: Perjanjian Jual Beli Listrik jangka panjang dengan skema risiko yang tidak fleksibel memaksa PT PLN (Persero) untuk terus menyerap listrik dari pembangkit fosil dan memperpanjang umur ekonomisnya.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Krisis Infrastruktur Grid: Keterbatasan jaringan transmisi dan penyimpanan (storage<\/em>) menjadi hambatan teknis utama dalam mengintegrasikan sifat EBT variabel (seperti solar\/PLTS) ke grid nasional.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n

    \u201cApabila laju pertumbuhan rata-rata kapasitas ET sebesar 7,53% antara 2015 sampai 2024 berlanjut, maka target kapasitas 50,5 GW pada tahun 2034 baru akan dicapai pada 2042. Menunda usaha untuk mencapai target ET tidak hanya menggeser beban pekerjaan yang harus dilakukan ke generasi selanjutnya, tetapi juga meningkatkan risiko bahwa mereka akan gagal dicapai. Selama sistem ketenagalistrikan Indonesia masih terkunci dengan bahan bakar fosil, akan sulit untuk mempercepat pertumbuhan ET untuk mencapai target bauran yang telah ditetapkan pemerintah,” ucap Alin Halimatussadiah, Kepala Kajian Ekonomi Hijau dan Iklim, LPEM UI.<\/p>\n\n

    Hasil pemodelan sensitivitas dalam laporan ini menegaskan bahwa carbon lock-in<\/em> bukanlah hambatan teknis yang mustahil diurai, melainkan buah dari pilihan kebijakan. Sebagai contoh, jika pemerintah mampu mereformasi tata kelola keuangan dan menekan biaya pendanaan (cost of capital<\/em>) PLTS dari 10% ke 5%, maka kebutuhan terhadap pembangkit listrik gas (PLTG & PLTMG) dapat langsung dipangkas sebesar 24,8%. <\/p>\n\n

    Indonesia harus segera mengambil langkah strategis, mulai dari transparansi parameter pemodelan, mendesain ulang kontrak PJBL baru yang pro-EBT, hingga mempercepat keterlibatan swasta dalam pembangunan transmisi melalui regulasi seperti skema power wheeling<\/em>. Tanpa reformasi ini, transisi energi bersih Indonesia hanya akan berjalan di tempat.<\/p>\n\n

    Laporan lengkap dapat diunduh di sini<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

    Kontak media:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

    Leonard Simanjuntak, Kepala Greenpeace Indonesia\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

    Dr. Alin Halimatussadiah, Kepala Kajian Ekonomi Hijau dan Iklim LPEM UI<\/p>\n\n

    Rahma Shofiana, Jurukampanye Media Greenpeace Indonesia<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Komitmen ambisius Pemerintah Indonesia untuk memangkas emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) sebesar 5,42\u201318,24% dibanding skenario dasar pada tahun 2030 serta target megaproyek PLTS 100 GW yang dimulai tahun ini menghadapi tembok besar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":57862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"Terjebak Carbon Lock-In, Ambisi Dekarbonisasi Sistem Ketenagalistrikan Indonesia Dipertanyakan","p4_og_description":"Komitmen ambisius Pemerintah Indonesia untuk memangkas emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) sebesar 5,42\u201318,24% dibanding skenario dasar pada tahun 2030 serta target megaproyek PLTS 100 GW yang dimulai tahun ini menghadapi tembok besar.","p4_og_image":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/static\/planet4-indonesia-stateless\/2022\/10\/795e2a27-gp04fy7_web_size.jpg","p4_og_image_id":"55600","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[52,62],"tags":[18],"p4-page-type":[14],"class_list":["post-67192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iklim-dan-energi","category-siaran-pers","tag-energi-terbarukan","p4-page-type-siaran-pers"],"yoast_head":"\nTerjebak Carbon Lock-In, Ambisi Dekarbonisasi Sistem Ketenagalistrikan Indonesia Dipertanyakan - 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