{"id":11759,"date":"2017-12-15T12:04:00","date_gmt":"2017-12-15T11:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.p4.greenpeace.org\/international\/uncategorised\/11759\/world-scientists-warning-to-humanity\/"},"modified":"2019-11-06T09:48:45","modified_gmt":"2019-11-06T08:48:45","slug":"world-scientists-warning-to-humanity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/international\/story\/11759\/world-scientists-warning-to-humanity\/","title":{"rendered":"World scientists\u2019 warning to humanity"},"content":{"rendered":"

Environmental activists and organisations typically try and stay positive, to give people hope that we can change. Positive signs exist, going back to the historic whaling and toxic dumping bans of the 1980s. The 1987 Montreal Protocol, reducing CFC gas emissions, led to a partial recovery of the ozone hole. Birth rates have declined in some regions, and forests and freshwater have been restored in some regions. The world’s nations have, at least, made promises to reduce carbon emissions<\/a>, even if action has been slow.<\/p>\n

A challenge we face as ecologists and environmentalists, however, is that when we step back from our victories and assess the big picture – the global pace of climate change, forest loss, biodiversity decline – we must admit: our achievements have not been enough.<\/p>\n

\"Children

Children play by the beach near a coal power plant in Jepara, Central Java, oblivious to the possible threats to their health.<\/p><\/div>\n

25 years ago, in 1992, the Union of Concerned Scientists issued the \u201cWorld Scientists\u2019 Warning to Humanity<\/a>\u201d signed by 1,700 scientists, including most living Nobel laureates. They presented disturbing data regarding freshwater, marine fisheries, climate, population, forests, soil, and biodiversity. They warned that \u201ca great change” was necessary to avoid “vast human misery.\u201d<\/p>\n

This year, on the 25th anniversary of that warning, the Alliance of World Scientists<\/a> published a second warning – an evaluation of our collective progress. With the exception of stabilising ozone depletion, they report that “humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse.”<\/p>\n

A short history of warnings<\/h4>\n

Environmental awareness is not new. Over 2,500 years ago, Chinese Taoists articulated the disconnect between human civilisation and ecological values. Later Taoist Bao Jingyan warned that “fashionable society goes against the true nature of things\u2026 harming creatures to supply frivolous adornments.\u201d<\/p>\n

Modern warnings began in the 18th century, at the dawn of the industrial age, particularly from Thomas Malthus, who warned that an exponentially growing population on a finite planet would reach ecological limits. Modern growth advocates have ridiculed Malthus for being wrong, but his logic and maths are impeccable. He did not foresee the discovery of petroleum, which allowed economists to ignore Malthus for two centuries, aggravating the crisis that Malthus correctly identified.<\/p>\n

Rachel Carson ignited the modern environmental movement in 1962 with Silent Spring,<\/em> warning of eminent biodiversity collapse. A decade later, in the early days of Greenpeace, the Club of Rome published The Limits To Growth<\/a><\/em>, using data to describe what we could see with our eyes: declining forests and biodiversity, and resources, clashing head-on with growing human population and consumption demands. Conventional economists mocked the idea of limits, but The Limits to Growth<\/em> projections have proven accurate.<\/p>\n

In 2009, in Nature<\/em> journal, a group of scientists lead by Johan Rockstr\u00f6m published Planetary Boundaries<\/a>, warning humanity that essential ecological systems \u2013 biodiversity, climate, nutrient cycles, and others \u2013 had moved beyond ecological limits to critical tipping points.<\/p>\n

\"Iceberg

Iceberg formation. Southern Ocean \/Antarctica.<\/p><\/div>\n

Three years later, 22 international scientists published a paper<\/a> called \u2018Approaching a State Shift in Earth\u2019s Biosphere\u2019 which warned that human growth had \u201cthe potential to transform Earth… \u00a0into a state unknown in human experience.\u201d Canadian co-author, biologist Arne Mooers lamented, \u201chumans have not done anything really important to stave off the worst. My colleagues\u2026 are terrified.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2014 Michael Gerst, Paul Raskin, and Johan Rockstr\u00f6m published \u2018Contours of a Resilient Global Future\u2019 in Sustainability 6<\/a><\/em>, searching for viable future scenarios that considered both the natural limits to growth and realistic targets for human development. They warned that the challenge is “daunting” and that “marginal changes” are insufficient.<\/p>\n

Last year, the UN International Resource Panel (IRP), published<\/a> \u2018Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity\u2019 warning nations that global resources are limited, human consumption trends are unsustainable, and that resource depletion will have unpleasant impacts on human health, quality of life, and future development.
\nThis year, the second \u201cWorld Scientists\u2019 Warning to Humanity,\u201d alerted us again that marginal changes appear insignificant and that we are surpassing “the limits of what the biosphere can tolerate without substantial and irreversible harm.”<\/p>\n

The data speaks<\/h4>\n

The Alliance of World Scientists researchers tracked data over the last 25 years, since the 1992 warning. They cite some hopeful signs, such as the decline in ozone-depleting CFC gases, but report that, from a global perspective, our “changes in environmental policy, human behavior, and global inequities… are far from sufficient.”<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what the data shows:<\/p>\n

Ozone<\/strong>: CFC (chlorofluorocarbons) emissions are down by 68% since 1992, due to the 1987 UN Montreal Protocol. The ozone layer is expected to reach 1980 levels by mid-century. This is the good news.<\/p>\n

Freshwater<\/strong>: Water resources per capita have declined by 26% since 1992. Today, about one billion people suffer from a lack of fresh, clean water, “nearly all due to the accelerated pace of human population growth” exacerbated by rising temperatures.<\/p>\n

Fisheries<\/strong>: The global marine catch is down by 6.4% since 1992, despite advances in industrial fishing technology. Larger ships with bigger nets and better sonar cannot catch fish that are not there.<\/p>\n

\"Environmental

Thousands of animals such as birds, crabs and seals were found dead on the beaches of the Chilean island of Chilo\u00e9 in one of the country’s worst environmental disasters in history.<\/p><\/div>\n

Ocean dead zones<\/strong>: Oxygen-depleted zones have increased by 75 %, caused by fertilizer runoff and fossil-fuel use. Acidification due to carbon emissions kills coral reefs that act as marine breeding grounds.<\/p>\n

Forests<\/strong>: By area, forests have declined by 2.8% since 1992, but with a simultaneous decline in forest health, timber volume, and quality. Forest loss has been greatest where forests are converted to agricultural land. Forest decline feeds back through the ecosystem as reduced carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and freshwater.<\/p>\n

Biodiversity<\/strong>: Vertebrate abundance has declined 28.9 %. Collectively, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals have declined by 58% between 1970 and 2012. This is harrowing.<\/p>\n

CO2 emissions<\/strong>: Regardless of international promises, CO2 emissions have increased by 62% since 1960.<\/p>\n

Temperature change<\/strong>: The global average surface temperature is increasing<\/a> in parallel to CO2 emissions. The 10 warmest years in the 136-year record have occurred since 1998. Scientists warn that heating will likely cause a decline in the world\u2019s major food crops, an increase in storm intensity, and a substantial sea level rise, inundating coastal cities.<\/p>\n

Population<\/strong>: We\u2019ve put 2 billion more humans on this planet since 1992 – that\u2019s a 35 % increase. To feed ourselves, we\u2019ve increased livestock by 20.5 %. Humans and livestock now comprise 98.5% of mammal biomass on Earth. The scientists stress that we need to find ways to stabilise or reverse human population growth. “Our large numbers,” they warn, “exert stresses on Earth that can overwhelm other efforts to realise a sustainable future”<\/p>\n

Soil<\/strong>: The scientists report a lack of global data, but from national data we can see that soil productivity has declined around the world (by up to 50% in some regions), due to nutrient depletion, erosion, and desertification. The EU reports losing 970 million tonnes of topsoil annually to erosion. The US Department of Agriculture estimates 75 billion tons of soil lost annually worldwide, costing nations $400 billion (\u20ac340 billion) in lost crop yields.<\/p>\n

The pending question<\/h4>\n

“We are jeopardising our future by not reining in our intense but geographically and demographically uneven material consumption,” the scientists warn, “and by not perceiving … population growth as a primary driver behind many ecological and societal threats.\u201d
\nThe Alliance of World Scientists report offers some hope, in the form of steps that we can take to begin a more serious transition to sustainability:<\/p>\n