{"id":18562,"date":"2018-09-20T11:38:29","date_gmt":"2018-09-20T11:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/international\/?p=18562"},"modified":"2021-12-01T13:51:24","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T12:51:24","slug":"weve-got-10-years-to-ditch-fossil-fuel-cars-or-its-game-over-for-the-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/international\/story\/18562\/weve-got-10-years-to-ditch-fossil-fuel-cars-or-its-game-over-for-the-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019ve got 10 years to ditch fossil fuel cars – or it\u2019s game over for the climate"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s an important line in the <\/span>Paris climate agreement<\/span><\/a>\u00a0which says:<\/span><\/p>\n

“[The Paris climate agreement] aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change… by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.”<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Basically, the world needs to get more ambitious when it comes to limiting global warming.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Though the difference between 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C might not seem like much, that half a degree difference really stacks up – as this neat-looking <\/span>infographic<\/span><\/a> explains.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"What<\/p>\n

1.5\u00b0C of global warming vs. 2\u00b0C – a snapshot of the difference in impact. Source: <\/span>CarbonBrief<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Since the Paris climate talks in 2015, scientists and researchers have been busy turning that 1.5\u00b0C target into something more meaningful, like working out how quickly we need to stop burning coal and oil, how many wind and solar farms we need to build, and how soon we need to switch from gas guzzling cars to zero-emissions vehicles.<\/span><\/p>\n

In a new study – commissioned by Greenpeace and carried out by <\/span>Germany’s Aerospace Centre<\/span><\/a> – researchers set out to shine a light on one of the big questions that falls out of the 1.5\u00b0C target: <\/span>\u2018How soon do we need to stop the sale of new fossil fuel cars?\u2019<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

And the answer is: pretty damn soon.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Cars

Rush hour in Beijing<\/p><\/div>\n

The car conundrum<\/b><\/p>\n

For the climate to stay under 1.5\u00b0C of warming, every industry you can think of needs to start making radical changes. From companies that produce electricity, to construction firms that build our homes and offices, through to the big food and agriculture firms that oversee <\/span>so much of the food we all buy<\/span><\/a> – these industries make up the bulk of the global economy, and they all need to play their part in transitioning from a high carbon world to a low carbon one. <\/span><\/p>\n

Getting every industry on the planet to change its business practices might seem a little daunting, but in some sectors it\u2019s already happening.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"EUEU greenhouse emissions per sector. Transport emissions have risen in recent years and predicted to flatline. Source: <\/span>European Commission<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Take the electricity sector, where thousands of wind farms and solar panels have been installed over the last decade. Wind, solar and biomass now supply more than <\/span>20% of electricity generated in the EU<\/span><\/a>, up from less than 10% in 2010.<\/span><\/p>\n

But it\u2019s a different story when we look at transport. <\/span><\/p>\n

Transport is the only major sector where <\/span>greenhouse gas emissions have gone up in recent years<\/span><\/a>, with <\/span>rising car sales<\/span><\/a> and a soaring demand for larger vehicles (like SUVs) driving the problem.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the automobile industry quite literally steering plans to tackle climate change in the wrong direction, some governments are now talking of forcing them onto a path that\u2019s better for the climate. Like the UK and France, who are <\/span>discussing plans<\/span><\/a> to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040.<\/span><\/p>\n

But with 2018 being so scorching hot that wildfires broke out across the northern hemisphere, this year\u2019s weather raises the question: can we really wait for these proposed bans to fix things?<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Wildfires

Wildfires swept through California this summer<\/p><\/div>\n

2028 deadline<\/b><\/p>\n

To answer this question, the German researchers began by charting what they think will happen naturally to the car industry, without new laws to force car firms to change. Their predictions factored in the fact that, due to public concerns about the health impact of diesels, the sale of diesel-powered cars is already falling dramatically. <\/span><\/p>\n

Next, the research team calculated the \u2018carbon budget\u2019 that can be attributed to the transport industry (the amount of CO<\/span>2<\/span> that can be pumped out while keeping warming below a certain temperature threshold).<\/span><\/p>\n

What they found is that, without laws to drive change, the rate at which electric vehicles will be introduced to the market won\u2019t be enough to stop the industry blowing through its carbon budget.<\/span><\/p>\n

The two graphs below sum things up. The top one shows what the researchers think will happen over the coming few decades unless any action is taken. The bottom graph shows how much faster the sale of diesels, petrols and hybrid engines need to decline if we\u2019re going to have a decent chance of hitting the 1.5\u00b0C target.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Sales<\/p>\n

Top: DLR\u2019s current projection for new car sales in Europe. Bottom: target car sales for a 66% chance of staying under 1.5\u00b0C of warming.\u00a0<\/span>Source: DLR<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Looking at the bottom graph, we can see that the sale of new high emission vehicles needs to fall to zero by around 2028. That means we\u2019ve got about a decade to completely ban the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles.<\/span><\/p>\n

At this stage we should also state the research only looks at the car industry in Europe, and not vehicles in Asia and the Americas. More research is need to cover these regions. And it\u2019s entirely possible that some countries would need to phase out fossil fuel cars even quicker.<\/span><\/p>\n