{"id":72628,"date":"2025-02-10T05:10:43","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T04:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/international\/?p=72628"},"modified":"2025-02-12T13:50:41","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T12:50:41","slug":"an-explainer-for-ndcs-the-heart-of-the-paris-agreement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/international\/story\/72628\/an-explainer-for-ndcs-the-heart-of-the-paris-agreement\/","title":{"rendered":"An explainer for NDCs: The heart of the Paris Agreement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There are moments in history that are critical turning points and 2025 could be one of those for the climate fight. This is a year when the Paris Agreement celebrates its 10th anniversary and when countries need to submit their 2035 climate action plan to the United Nations.<\/p>\n\n

But what are these climate action plans, known in political terminology as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and why are they so important? <\/p>\n\n

What are Nationally Determined Contributions?<\/h3>\n\n

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement, the landmark climate accord reached in 2015. In the Paris Agreement, governments committed to limit global heating to well below 2\u00b0C and pursue efforts to restrict warming to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n

Under the terms of the Paris Agreement, each country must outline and publicly communicate their climate action plans. These NDCs should detail the efforts by each country to reduce national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n\n

\"Projection
Greenpeace projection Photo Booth in the Civil Society Hub at COP29 with portraits (here Amrita Ranjit) and images of climate impacts to send a message to country delegates that the time for action is now.
\u00a9 Marie Jacquemin \/ Greenpeace<\/div><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

How important are they?<\/h3>\n\n

Ultimately, NDCs and how governments implement them play a large role in whether the world will limit warming to the Paris goals. <\/p>\n\n

Every new NDC that a country submits needs to show progress in terms of their ambition and action in comparison to their previous NDC. This is commonly known as the \u2018ratchet up\u2019 mechanism of the Paris Agreement, where ambition is repeatedly increased.<\/p>\n\n

How often do these NDCs need to be produced?<\/h3>\n\n

NDCs are submitted every five years to the UNFCCC secretariat, the UN organisation tasked with supporting the global response to climate change. The UNFCCC stands for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.<\/p>\n\n

The Convention has universal membership. There are currently 198 Parties to the Convention, which is seen as the parent treaty of the 2015 Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n

When were the first NDCs produced?<\/h3>\n\n

The first generation of interim 2030 NDCs were developed and produced as part of the initial adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, and later confirmed in 2020\/2021. <\/p>\n\n

So the next round of 2035 NDCs is due this year?<\/h3>\n\n

Yes! The deadline for 2035 NDCs is this year, or more specifically on February 10.

These new NDCs, known by some as NDCs 3.0, will take into account the Global Stocktake, from 2023, which evaluated global progress on achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n

Will countries meet that deadline?<\/h3>\n\n

At the moment, only a handful of countries have lodged their 2035 NDCs with the UN, and some of the world\u2019s biggest emitters have missed the deadline ahead of this year\u2019s pivotal COP30 climate summit in Brazil. In response, the UN has now urged countries to submit “first-rate” climate targets by September.<\/p>\n\n

You can keep track of who has lodged a 2035 NDC at the UNFCCC registry<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

\"Activists
Greenpeace activists give party delegates arriving to the Troika session in Bonn a clear choice to commit to a fossil fuel phase-out in 1.5\u00b0C aligned NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) or face a world full of climate chaos and destruction. Despite the fact the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned there is an 80 percent chance the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5\u00b0C at least once in the next five years, the will to phase out fossil fuels is still missing in action at the Bonn Climate Change Conference.
\u00a9 Mia Hense \/ Greenpeace<\/div><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

What needs to be in this round of NDCs?<\/h3>\n\n

The UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – which provides regular scientific assessments on climate change – has said to limit global warming to 1.5\u00b0C, GHG emissions must be cut by 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 (and 43% by 2030).<\/p>\n\n

Are NDCs working to slow climate change?<\/h3>\n\n

While we\u2019re seeing gradual improvement through an increasing level of ambition in NDCs, the progress is still far too slow. The UN\u2019s annual analysis of NDCs<\/a> last year showed there\u2019s still a long way to go in terms of GHG emissions cuts and that governments need to lift their efforts. <\/p>\n\n

That analysis showed global emissions in 2025 are expected to be 54% higher than in 1990 and in 2030 they will be 50% higher than in 1990. <\/p>\n\n

So, it\u2019s vital that 2035 NDCs are much more ambitious because record heat, storms and wildfires are proof that the climate crisis will not wait as nations delay their action plans. <\/p>\n\n

What temperature increase are we currently heading towards?<\/h3>\n\n

The UN\u2019s NDCs report showed there\u2019s a big gap between expected 2030 emissions and a 1.5\u00b0C pathway, and that temperatures could rise 2.1\u20132.8\u00b0C by 2100 if greater action is not taken.<\/p>\n\n

Ok, that\u2019s bad. Can we still limit warming to 1.5\u00b0C?\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n

Yes, but we need to massively accelerate efforts to reduce GHG emissions. The good news is that last year\u2019s UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024<\/a> – which assesses the gap between current climate action policies and what\u2019s needed – said the 1.5\u00b0<\/strong>C was still technically possible.<\/p>\n\n

The UNEP added that there\u2019s real promise in wind, solar and forests for sweeping and fast emissions cuts, but that strong NDCs need to be submitted and backed up with governments using all of its branches to fight climate change.<\/p>\n\n

The 1.5C target is the shining light of the Paris Agreement and every fraction of a degree matters. It\u2019s time to act<\/a>! The longer we take to end the burning of coal, oil and gas, the worse our climate extremes will be. Every 0.1C we can avoid is worth fighting for.<\/p>\n\n

\"Protest
Shortly before the expected result of the coal commission, around 60 Greenpeace activists are demonstrating since daybreak at the lignite power plant Niederaussem near Koeln for determined climate protection.
\u00a9 Daniel M\u00fcller \/ Greenpeace<\/div><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

When will we know the outcome of 2035 NDCs?<\/h3>\n\n

The UN will publish an analysis ahead of this year\u2019s climate summit (COP30) in Belem, Brazil in November. The analysis will make an assessment of 2035 NDCs and the trajectory the world will be on.<\/p>\n\n

What can you do about it?<\/h3>\n\n

Use your social media platform of choice to call on your national government, your local official or member of government to ensure they produce a robust and ambitious NDC. <\/p>\n\n

Hold them to account. Make noise. Let them know the people want change, that we want a safe climate and that the moment is now!<\/p>\n\n

Aaron Gray-Block is Climate Political Communications Specialist at Greenpeace International. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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