{"id":68623,"date":"2026-06-18T08:54:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/?p=68623"},"modified":"2026-06-18T08:54:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T01:54:46","slug":"how-a-super-el-nino-risks-worsening-extreme-weather-in-a-climate-changed-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/story\/68623\/how-a-super-el-nino-risks-worsening-extreme-weather-in-a-climate-changed-world\/","title":{"rendered":"How a \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o risks worsening extreme weather in a climate changed world\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It\u2019s official: an El Ni\u00f1o has been confirmed and with it, expectations of another record hot-year \u2013 most likely in 2027 \u2013 and bringing with it the anticipation of extreme weather impacts and disruptions to global food production.<\/p>\n\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has said there is a chance a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o could form<\/a> \u2013 the first since 2016, adding to growing concerns for the impacts the natural weather phenomenon might cause on an already warmer planet.<\/p>\n\n

\"Signage
Signage cautions drivers of extreme heat danger as an excessive heatwave continues on July 9, 2024 in Death Valley National Park.\u00a9 David McNew \/ Greenpeace<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

After the past 11 years have been the world\u2019s warmest<\/a> on record due to climate change, this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o could become one of the strongest ever recorded and temporarily push the average global temperature above the 1.5\u00b0C limit adopted in the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n


The confirmation of an El Ni\u00f1o came as scientists declared in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change<\/a> that our climate is heating at an all-time high of around 0.27\u00b0C per decade, driven primarily by record-high greenhouse gas levels, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n


They added, in a report presented at the 2026 Bonn Climate Change Conference, that there are around three years remaining of the 1.5\u00b0C carbon budget and the 1.5\u00b0C temperature threshold could be exceeded on a longer-term basis by 2030 as the Earth is getting hotter, faster<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n


This means that in the short-term an El Ni\u00f1o will likely lead to another spike in global temperatures and on a longer-term basis, human-induced global warming is worsening and progressively destabilising our Earth systems. That\u2019s the bad news.<\/p>\n\n

Climate policies and renewable energy could reduce global heating<\/h3>\n\n

But there is good news \u2013 and bear with me because it is technical: while describing a new set of global emission scenarios<\/a>, academics recently decided their worst-case scenario of global heating is now considered \u2018implausible\u2019.

In fact, emissions in the new high scenario are lower than the previous high scenarios, effectively retiring the scenario in which global temperatures could rise by about 4.5\u00b0C by the end of the century. This change is thanks to pro-climate policy choices from governments and the massive expansion in renewable energy<\/a> since the Paris Agreement was reached in 2015. <\/p>\n\n

Instead of welcoming this news, however, the world\u2019s chief climate denialist, US President Donald Trump, argued the scientists had been WRONG! WRONG! WRONG. This is not the first time Trump has misrepresented climate science, but it was nevertheless picked up by conservative media outlets and used to undermine climate science.<\/p>\n\n

Other media, however, conducted a fact-check<\/a> and exposed Trump\u2019s mischaracterisation<\/a> of the data because it\u2019s important to understand this worst-case scenario was never the only projected pathway. <\/p>\n\n

Scientists have actually been using a range of scenarios in models to understand what might happen to our climate in the future \u2013 based mainly on how much greenhouse gases are emitted from the burning of coal, oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n

So \u2018retiring\u2019 the worst-case scenario was good news and confirmed that the clean energy transition is leading to lower projected global greenhouse gas emissions and a reduction in the projected temperature increase. But it also came with a warning: the most optimistic scenario for the 21st Century was also \u2018retired\u2019 and we cannot rule out extreme warming.<\/p>\n\n

Positive political signals starting to emerge<\/h3>\n\n

The UNEP warned last year we are still headed for average warming of 2.3 to 2.5\u00b0C by 2100<\/a> and the latest round of government climate action plans (NDCs) submitted for the COP30 UN climate talks in Brazil last year failed to bridge the 1.5\u00b0C ambition gap. <\/p>\n\n

\"Greenpeace
Greenpeace International demonstrates with a banner for a fossil fuel phase-out at the Climate Change Conference 2026.\u00a9 Bernd Lauter \/ Greenpeace<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

These NDCs combined would only lead to a 12% cut in global GHG emissions by 2035<\/a>, woefully short of the 60% global reduction needed, compared to 2019 levels. <\/p>\n\n

After COP30 failed to agree<\/a> on a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels despite wide support, 57 countries met in Santa Marta, Colombia, in April 2026 to explicitly discuss how to end fossil fuel usage, signalling a clear political shift and hopes of further change. <\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s a shift that\u2019s been given a strong impetus by the global energy supply shock sparked by the war on Iran, which is inadvertently \u201csupercharging<\/a>\u201d the world\u2019s renewables boom.<\/p>\n\n

Swifter action is needed, however, as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said global temperatures are set to stay at or near record levels in the next five years<\/a>, while May 2026  became the second warmest on record<\/a> according to Copernicus Climate Change Service. <\/p>\n\n

The impacts of an El Ni\u00f1o: extreme weather and agricultural risks<\/h3>\n\n

While climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and severe, the development of the El Ni\u00f1o can further destabilise an already volatile atmospheric system.<\/p>\n\n

An El Ni\u00f1o often leads to increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern US, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, but drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.<\/p>\n\n

\"Firefighters
Firefighters set a backfire to try to save cabins near Shirley Meadow as the French Fire grows, destroying homes and properties amid record wildfires and worsening drought conditions across the West on August 22, 2021 near Wofford Heights, California.\u00a9 David McNew \/ Greenpeace<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Although an El Ni\u00f1o is notoriously complex, in the words of UN Secretary-General Guterres, it can pour fuel on the fire of a warming world<\/a> and lead to severe and unpredictable weather<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n

The onset of drought during the El Ni\u00f1o is another risk, impacting agriculture and raising concerns of failed rains, dying crops and rising food prices<\/a>. The UN\u2019s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns of risks<\/a> in the Sahel, Southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, in addition to agricultural drought risk across South and Southeast Asia. <\/p>\n\n

\"Aerial
Aerial view of Brgy. Apsatan, Gerona, Tarlac a rice-producing agricultural land impacted by El Ni\u00f1o, aggravated by the climate crisis, causing Php5.9 billion in damages to Philppine agriculture.\u00a9 Alecs Ongcal \/ Greenpeace<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Ocean warming and an Earth energy imbalance<\/h3>\n\n

NOAA\u2019s declaration of an El Ni\u00f1o came after the UN\u2019s third World Ocean Assessment<\/a> (WOA) \u2013  found that our ocean is also under mounting stress from overexploitation, pollution and the accelerating impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n\n

The WOA reports that the ocean has already absorbed over 90% of the excess heat and 30% of the carbon dioxide released by the burning of fossil fuels. Alarmingly, however, about 16% of the total increase in ocean heat content since 1955 has occurred since 2018 as surplus heat continues to get stored in the ocean.<\/p>\n\n

\"Cabaliana
Cabaliana Lake, in Manacapuru, Amazonas state. In 2023, states in the Amazon face a strong drought, which drained rivers and lakes in several cities, isolating people and killing animals. The ebb currents of rivers occur naturally, but they were intensified by El Ni\u00f1o and severe heat waves coming, resulting in an environmental emergency.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

Ultimately, the WOA report suggests global heating is worsening as that and other data start to raise concerns about whether climate change is potentially accelerating \u2013 an issue discussed at the UN talks in Bonn at the presentation of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC)<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n

The data presented about the Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance (EEI) \u2013 which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system \u2013 shows this imbalance has more than doubled in recent decades<\/a> and is a key factor behind the unprecedented high rate of global warming.<\/p>\n\n

If emission levels continue increasing, this imbalance is expected to become even more lopsided and average temperatures will continue rising.<\/p>\n\n

IPCC next assessment cycle and need for science-informed action plans<\/h3>\n\n

The IGCC data gives us a timely insight into climatic changes as we wait for the next reporting cycle from the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will meet in October 2026 to decide when its 7th Assessment Report (AR7) will be finalised.<\/a>

At the past five IPCC meetings, countries have been deadlocked over a timeline for this critical three-part assessment report. It\u2019s a deceptively important decision that will determine whether the AR7 will be finished by mid-2028 to inform the second Global Stocktake (GST2) of climate action.<\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s absolutely vital that the next round of government climate targets are informed by the latest IPCC reports. Any delay to the AR7 timeline would be like postponing a critical diagnosis. As our climate\u2019s stability rapidly deteriorates, the treatment becomes harder and more expensive.<\/p>\n\n

At the first global stocktake, at COP28 in Dubai in 2023, the world agreed to transition away from fossil fuels<\/a> and to end deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. These momentous decisions are now the central element in our efforts to limit global warming to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n

\"Greenpeace
Greenpeace activist holds banner with message \u201cThis is a climate emergency\u201d at Lake Tarum\u00e3, in Manaus, where drought is severe.\u00a9 Marizilda Cruppe \/ Greenpeace<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

But government action is still dangerously misaligned with the urgency required, threatening the existence of climate vulnerable states such as those in the Pacific and exposing millions around the world to the harms of escalating climate impacts. <\/p>\n\n

In Bonn and elsewhere, we\u2019ve also witnessed attempts to undermine the scientific basis of action. This is despite the International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion and a subsequent UN resolution<\/a> calling on governments to align their policies with their legal obligations to limit global warming to 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n

Speaking after Greenpeace Australia Pacific published a report<\/a> outlining a Pacific-led vision for the just transition away from fossil fuels, Tina Stege, Climate Envoy for the Republic of the Marshall Islands, said at a press conference in Bonn: \u201cDespite legal and scientific proof, 1.5\u00b0C is being questioned and science is under attack.\u201d She added that \u201csuggestions that we can adapt to 3\u00b0C are tantamount to declaring the Pacific a sacrifice zone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

\"Greenpeace
Greenpeace held at press conference at the June Climate Meetings (SB64) together with the Republic of the Marshall Islands and Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change to launch a new report outlining a Pacific-led vision for the just transition away from fossil fuels grounded in Pacific values and three decades of frontline leadership.\u00a9 Greenpeace \/ Marie Jacquemin<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n

It\u2019s a reality check we need to hear, especially as we witness escalating temperatures and now a looming El Ni\u00f1o as our climate edges closer to a 1.5\u00b0C exceedance. What matters now is what we do today and tomorrow because no level of warming is safe.<\/p>\n\n

It\u2019s mission critical that we defend the emerging political momentum for a just transition and forest protection<\/a> to give us the best chance of limiting global heating. That involves the development of national fossil fuel phase out roadmaps as part of fair, fast and funded transition plans that protect people and build long-term climate and energy stability. <\/p>\n\n

While we cannot reverse decades of GHG emissions, prevent the formation of an El Ni\u00f1o or future warming, we can help ensure our children have a more stable climate in future. As we enter this supercharged moment<\/a> and face its unpredictable impacts, we must act with the urgency required for both people and planet \u2013 our climate depends on it.

Aaron Gray-Block is a Climate Politics Communications Manager with Greenpeace International.<\/em><\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s official: an El Ni\u00f1o has been confirmed and with it, expectations of another record hot-year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":68624,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"p4_og_title":"","p4_og_description":"","p4_og_image":"","p4_og_image_id":"","p4_seo_canonical_url":"","p4_campaign_name":"","p4_local_project":"","p4_basket_name":"","p4_department":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[160],"tags":[145,99,17],"p4-page-type":[16],"class_list":["post-68623","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change-2","tag-extreme-weather","tag-indonesia","tag-food","p4-page-type-story"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68623","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/89"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68623"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68625,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68623\/revisions\/68625"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68624"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68623"},{"taxonomy":"p4-page-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org\/southeastasia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/p4-page-type?post=68623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}