Of the 21 rudimentary "exo-atmospheric" missile intercept tests
conducted since 1990 - the three frequently cited National Missile
Defense tests were the last of these - a total of 16 have
failed.1 An August 2000 study written by former Pentagon
Director of Operational Testing Philip E. Coyle asserted that even
the apparent successes were staged: in the "successful" intercept
missile test of October, 1999, for instance, a Global Positioning
System inside the mock warhead served as a homing device to guide
the interceptor to it.2
The study, which Pentagon officials have attempted to suppress,
also states that the tests have been "unrealistic," noting that
none of the tests have used the types of sophisticated decoys
likely in a real attack, and that a test involving multiple targets
has not even been scheduled. The study concluded that due to the
unrealistic testing and mounting number of failures, a system could
not reasonably be deployed by 2005, a year after the Bush
Administration is considering deploying one.
Even if a rudimentary system could be developed many years down
the road, the race to overcome or circumvent it would already be
under way, and the whole thing could become obsolete within a few
years, or possibly only months after it's deployed.
For these same reasons, 50 Nobel Laureates signed a letter on
July 6, 2000 stating that a missile defense system "would offer
little protection and do grave harm to the nation's core security
interests."
The ultimate irony of this testing is that ballistic missiles
are by far the least likely way that any "rogue" nation would
attack the U.S, because they are very expensive, extremely
difficult to build, and insure certain and cataclysmic retaliation
by the U.S. since their point of origin is easily detected. So even
if a Star Wars missile system could be made to work, it would still
not protect us from the most likely threats, which would come from
weapons delivered via ship, truck or suitcase.
1Testimony of Joseph Cirincione, Director,
Non-Proliferation Project, Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace before the Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on
National Security, Veteran Affairs and International security,
September 8, 2000.
2Director Operational
Test and Evaluation Report in support of National Missile Defense
Deployment Readiness Review, August 10, 2000.