Regional Impact and Contribution Assessment ToR

GREENPEACE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

TERMS OF REFERENCE

Regional Impact and Contribution Assessment of Greenpeace MENA’s Work Since 2019

• Focus countries: United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon
• Consultancy assignment: Commissioning organisation Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa (Greenpeace MENA)
• Assignment period: [To be confirmed]
• Level of effort: [To be proposed by the consultant]
• Geographic scope: MENA region, with more focused analysis of the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon
• Assessment period: 2019 to the date of commencement of the consultancy
• Reporting to: [Executive Director / designated project lead]

1. Background and Rationale

Since 2019, Greenpeace MENA has sought to advance climate justice and accelerate a fair energy transition across the Middle East and North Africa. Its work has combined public campaigning, policy engagement, movement building, youth mobilisation, strategic communications, research, coalition-building and regional narrative change.

Over the same period, the region has experienced important changes in climate policy, renewable energy deployment, public awareness, youth engagement and economic transition. These shifts have not resulted from the work of any single actor. They have been shaped by governments, civil society, social movements, researchers, communities, multilateral processes, market forces and geopolitical developments.

Greenpeace MENA therefore wishes to commission an independent regional assessment that documents progress since 2019 and examines the organisation’s contribution to that progress where credible evidence exists. The assessment should avoid simplistic or unsupported attribution. Instead, it should use a theory-of-contribution approach that distinguishes between changes directly influenced by Greenpeace MENA, changes to which Greenpeace MENA plausibly contributed alongside others, and wider contextual developments that are relevant to the organisation’s mission but cannot reasonably be linked to its work.

The assessment is intended to generate a credible evidence base for strategic learning, accountability, communications, fundraising and future programme design. It should also identify where progress has been limited, uneven or reversible, and where Greenpeace MENA may need to adapt its strategy to increase impact.

2. Purpose of the Consultancy

The purpose of the consultancy is to assess and document the evolution of climate action, climate justice, renewable energy, economic transition and climate movement-building in the region since 2019, with particular focus on the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon, and to analyse Greenpeace MENA’s contribution to these changes wherever this can be credibly demonstrated.

The consultancy should produce both a regional narrative and country-level evidence. It should capture formal policy change as well as shifts in public discourse, civil society capacity, youth leadership, coalition strength, political salience and the connection between climate issues and people’s daily lives.

3. Specific Objectives

• Document major changes since 2019 in climate policy, renewable energy policy, implementation, investment and deployment across the five focus countries.
• Assess progress in climate justice policies, decisions, public debate and institutional practice, including equity, participation, adaptation, loss and damage, just transition and protection of affected communities.
• Analyse the evolution, reach, diversity and influence of the regional climate movement, with a particular focus on youth-led climate action and the leadership of young people from the region.
• Examine the extent to which climate issues have become more connected to people’s daily concerns, including energy affordability, electricity access, air pollution, public health, livelihoods, food and water security, dignity, economic opportunity and social justice.
• Assess economic diversification and energy transition developments in the UAE, including progress, limitations and contradictions in moving away from fossil-fuel dependence and expanding renewable energy and other low-carbon sectors.
• Identify outcomes and changes to which Greenpeace MENA directly contributed or plausibly contributed, and clearly distinguish these from broader changes for which no contribution can be demonstrated.
• Generate lessons and recommendations to strengthen Greenpeace MENA’s future strategy, country engagement, movement-building, policy influence, communications and impact measurement.

4. Scope of Work

4.1 Geographic and temporal scope

Geographic scope: The assessment will cover the Middle East and North Africa region, with detailed analysis of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon. Regional developments, institutions and networks should be included where they materially affect the five-country analysis.

Assessment period: From January 2019 to the date of commencement of the consultancy. The consultant may reference earlier developments where needed to establish a baseline or explain the significance of later changes.

4.2 Thematic scope

5. Core Assessment Questions

5.1 Progress and change

• What significant policy, regulatory, institutional, investment and implementation changes have occurred since 2019 in the five focus countries?
• What measurable progress has been made in renewable energy targets, installed capacity, market development, decentralised solutions, investment and access?
• Where has climate policy translated into implementation, and where do gaps remain between commitments and action?
• What progress has been made in embedding climate justice, social equity, participation, adaptation, loss and damage and just transition considerations in policy and public debate?
• How has the climate movement evolved in size, diversity, influence and resilience, particularly among youth-led organisations, networks and informal movements?
• How has the UAE’s diversification agenda evolved, and to what extent does it represent a structural transition away from fossil-fuel dependence rather than an expansion of clean sectors alongside continued fossil-fuel growth?
• How have climate narratives become more connected to the daily realities and priorities of people in the region?

5.2 Greenpeace MENA’s contribution

• Which observed changes can be directly linked to Greenpeace MENA’s interventions through clear evidence?
• Where is there credible evidence that Greenpeace MENA contributed alongside other actors, even where direct attribution is not possible?
• What pathways of influence were most important: policy access, research, public pressure, coalition-building, youth mobilisation, media reach, narrative change, strategic litigation, capacity-building or other mechanisms?
• Which Greenpeace MENA campaigns, partnerships, products or convening roles appear to have had the greatest strategic value, and why?
• How did external actors perceive Greenpeace MENA’s role, distinctiveness, legitimacy and added value?
• Where did Greenpeace MENA’s intended influence not materialise, and what explains the gap?
• What unintended positive or negative effects emerged from Greenpeace MENA’s work?

5.3 Strategic learning

• What does the evidence suggest Greenpeace MENA should continue, stop, adapt, scale or invest in?
• Which countries, constituencies, policy windows and movement-building opportunities offer the strongest potential for future impact?
• What indicators and evidence systems should Greenpeace MENA adopt to track contribution and long-term change more consistently?

6. Methodological Approach

The consultant is expected to propose a rigorous mixed-methods methodology. The final design should be agreed during the inception phase and should be proportionate to available time and resources. At a minimum, the methodology should include the following elements:

• Theory of contribution and reconstructed theory of change: Reconstruct how Greenpeace MENA expected its activities to contribute to outcomes and longer-term change. Test the strength of evidence for each contribution pathway and identify alternative explanations.
• Desk review and evidence mapping: Review Greenpeace MENA strategies, campaign plans, monitoring data, research, communications, media records, partnership documentation, donor reports, policy submissions and internal learning documents, alongside external policy and sector sources.
• Policy and trend analysis: Establish a 2019 baseline and track major policy, implementation, movement and discourse changes over time using consistent indicators across the five countries.
• Key informant interviews: Interview Greenpeace MENA staff and former staff, partners, youth leaders, civil society actors, policymakers, researchers, journalists, funders, campaign allies and informed external observers.
• Country case studies: Develop concise country narratives showing context, progress, constraints, key actors and Greenpeace MENA’s contribution. The UAE case study should include a deeper assessment of diversification and fossil-fuel dependence.
• Contribution analysis and triangulation: Triangulate documentary evidence, interviews, media and external data. Apply explicit confidence ratings to contribution claims and test plausible alternative explanations.
• Outcome harvesting: Identify significant intended and unintended outcomes and work backwards to assess what changed, why it matters and whether Greenpeace MENA influenced the change.
• Narrative and discourse analysis: Assess shifts in how climate is discussed in public and policy spaces, including links to justice, health, affordability, livelihoods, dignity, energy security and everyday life.
• Validation: Conduct an internal validation session and, where appropriate, targeted external validation with selected stakeholders to test findings and interpretation.

6.1 Attribution and contribution standards

The consultancy must not overstate Greenpeace MENA’s role. Findings should use a transparent contribution scale such as the following:

7. Expected Deliverables

8. Indicative Structure of the Regional Synthesis Report

1. Executive summary
2. Purpose, scope, methodology and limitations
3. Reconstructed theory of change and contribution framework
4. Regional context and major changes since 2019
5. Cross-country findings on climate policy and implementation
6. Renewable energy progress and energy-transition dynamics
7. Climate justice developments
8. Climate movement and youth movement development
9. Connecting climate to daily life and public priorities
10. UAE economic diversification and transition away from fossil-fuel dependence
11. Country findings: UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon
12. Greenpeace MENA contribution findings and confidence assessment
13. What did not change, regressions and unresolved gaps
14. Strategic lessons and recommendations
15. Annexes, evidence matrix, stakeholder list and bibliography

9. Indicative Evidence and Indicator Framework

The consultant should refine a practical indicator framework during inception. The framework should combine quantitative and qualitative evidence and should not rely only on formal policy adoption. Indicative areas include:

10. Indicative Stakeholder Groups

• Greenpeace MENA current and former staff, board members and campaign leads.
• Youth climate activists, youth-led initiatives and participants in Greenpeace-supported spaces or programmes.
• Civil society organisations, social movements, community groups and coalition partners.
• Government officials, regulators, parliamentarians, municipal actors and public institutions, where accessible.
• Renewable energy, climate finance, economic diversification and policy experts.
• Journalists, editors, communicators and public commentators.
• Academic and research institutions.
• Funders, international organisations and regional networks.
• Independent external observers who can provide a critical perspective on Greenpeace MENA’s role. The sample should include supportive, neutral and critical voices. It should also reflect gender, age, nationality, country and organisational diversity, and should avoid relying disproportionately on Greenpeace MENA’s closest partners.

11. Ethics, Independence and Safeguards

• Maintain independence of analysis and disclose any actual or perceived conflict of interest.
• Obtain informed consent and explain how interview information will be used.
• Protect confidential or sensitive information and anonymise respondents where requested or necessary.
• Apply a do-no-harm approach, particularly when engaging youth activists or actors operating in restricted civic spaces.
• Avoid identifying individuals or organisations in ways that could expose them to political, legal, professional or security risks.
• Distinguish clearly between evidence, stakeholder perception, consultant interpretation and Greenpeace MENA’s own claims.
• Document limitations, missing data, contradictory evidence and areas of low confidence.
• Avoid greenwashing, success bias and retrospective claims that are not supported by contemporaneous or independently verifiable evidence.

12. Required Consultant or Team Profile

• Demonstrated senior-level expertise in climate policy, climate justice, energy transition, renewable energy and sustainable development in the MENA region.
• At least [8–10] years of relevant experience in evaluation, impact assessment, contribution analysis, political economy analysis, policy research or organisational learning.
• Strong knowledge of the political, economic and civic-space context of the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Lebanon.
• Proven experience assessing advocacy, campaigning, movement-building, coalition work or narrative change, rather than only service-delivery programmes.
• Ability to analyse fossil-fuel dependence, economic diversification and renewable energy expansion with political and economic nuance.
• Experience engaging youth movements and civil society actors in an ethical and participatory manner.
• Excellent qualitative research, interviewing, synthesis and report-writing skills.
• Ability to work in English and Arabic. French capability is strongly desirable for Morocco and Tunisia.
• Independence, sound judgement and the ability to communicate findings that may be critical or politically sensitive.
• Previous work with international NGOs, environmental organisations, social movements or advocacy networks is an advantage.

13. Management and Governance of the Assignment

The consultant will report to a designated Greenpeace MENA project lead. A small internal reference group may be established to provide access to documentation, validate factual accuracy, facilitate stakeholder introductions and review deliverables. The reference group will not direct or predetermine findings.

Greenpeace MENA will support access to relevant internal documents and stakeholders, subject to confidentiality, data-protection and consent requirements. The consultant will remain responsible for the integrity of the methodology, evidence assessment and conclusions.

14. Indicative Timeframe and Level of Effort

Applicants should propose a realistic workplan and level of effort. Greenpeace MENA anticipates that the assignment may require approximately [12–16 weeks], depending on the final methodology, number of interviews, travel requirements and depth of country analysis.

15. Proposal Submission Requirements

• A concise technical proposal demonstrating understanding of the assignment and proposed methodology.
• A workplan with phases, timeline, level of effort and division of responsibilities within the team.
• A proposed approach to contribution analysis, country comparison and assessment of narrative and movement change.
• A preliminary list of indicators and data sources.
• CVs of all proposed team members and clarification of their roles.
• Two or three examples of comparable assignments, preferably involving advocacy, climate policy, movement-building or MENA regional analysis.
• Contact details for two professional references.
• A detailed financial proposal, including professional fees, taxes, travel and any other costs.
• A declaration of conflicts of interest and availability.

16. Indicative Selection Criteria

17. Ownership, Confidentiality and Use of Outputs

All final deliverables, working datasets and materials produced under this assignment will be the property of Greenpeace MENA, subject to applicable contractual terms and any agreed protections for confidential interview data. The consultant may not publish, circulate or reuse the findings without prior written approval from Greenpeace MENA.

Greenpeace MENA reserves the right to edit and adapt the outputs for internal learning, governance, fundraising, communications and programme design. Any public use should preserve the integrity of the evidence and the distinctions between direct contribution, plausible contribution and contextual progress.

18. Key Principles for the Assignment

• Credibility over advocacy: The assessment should strengthen Greenpeace MENA’s credibility by presenting evidence honestly, including limitations, setbacks and findings that do not support a claim of contribution.
• Contribution, not ownership of change: Regional progress belongs to the collective efforts of governments, movements, communities, researchers and many other actors. Greenpeace MENA’s role should be described proportionately.
• Justice-centred analysis: The assessment should examine not only whether climate action expanded, but who benefited, who carried the costs, who participated and whose rights and priorities were recognised.
• Regional relevance with country specificity: The analysis should identify common patterns without flattening the distinct political, economic and civic contexts of the five countries.
• Learning for future impact: The final product should be practical and forward-looking, helping Greenpeace MENA make better strategic choices and improve how it monitors long-term influence.

Annex 1. Suggested Country Brief Template

• Country context and 2019 baseline
• Major political, economic and civic-space developments affecting climate action
• Climate policy and implementation progress
• Renewable energy and energy-transition progress
• Climate justice developments
• Climate movement and youth movement evolution
• Climate and everyday-life narrative shifts
• Key actors and coalitions
• Greenpeace MENA interventions and intended pathways of influence
• Observed outcomes and contribution assessment
• Alternative explanations and confidence level
• Gaps, regressions and unresolved challenges
• Strategic implications and recommendations

How to Apply

Please share the required documents listed above to this email address: [email protected] no later than September 24, 2026.