Strategic Assessment of Regional Disruption and Implications for Greenpeace MENA’s Campaigns and Theory of Change

Background and Context

The Middle East and North Africa region is experiencing a period of profound disruption shaped by the latest war in the Middle East, wider regional escalation risks, and shifting geopolitical alignments, economic shocks, social fragility, and worsening climate and environmental pressures. These developments are unfolding in a region already marked by inequality, conflict vulnerability, fossil fuel dependency, water scarcity, food insecurity, energy insecurity, constrained civic space, and uneven climate resilience.

The war and its broader regional repercussions are likely to reshape power relations, diplomacy, security priorities, governance systems, economic planning, public narratives, and social movements. The disruption also has direct and indirect climate and environmental consequences, including damage to ecosystems and infrastructure, pollution risks, reconstruction pressures, increased fossil fuel dependency, weakened environmental governance, and heightened vulnerability of communities already facing climate impacts.

For Greenpeace MENA, this moment requires a strategic assessment of how geopolitical and economic changes intersect with climate justice, environmental protection, energy transition, civic space, and movement-building. The assessment should help Greenpeace MENA understand the implications for its campaigns, advocacy, partnerships, public positioning, narratives, risk management, and long-term strategic direction. It should also inform the development of Greenpeace MENA’s updated Theory of Change, including revised assumptions, leverage points, risks, opportunities, and strategic choices.

Purpose

The purpose of this consultancy is to provide Greenpeace MENA with a rigorous, conflict-sensitive and forward-looking strategic analysis of the latest Middle East war and wider regional disruption, with a focus on its geopolitical, economic, social, climate and environmental implications, and the consequences for Greenpeace MENA’s campaigns, strategy, alliances, positioning and new Theory of Change.

The consultancy should generate practical and actionable recommendations that enable Greenpeace MENA to respond strategically to the current moment, strengthen its relevance and impact, and align its future work with emerging regional realities.

Objectives

The consultancy will aim to:

  • Assess the geopolitical implications in MENA countries (with a focus on Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, UAE and KSA) of the latest war in the Middle East, including regional power shifts, diplomacy, governance, security priorities, civic space, public discourse and implications for civil society actors.
  • Analyze the economic and political economy impacts in MENA countries of the war and wider disruption, including implications for macroeconomic stability, energy systems, reconstruction, trade, livelihoods, public finance, inequality, debt, extractivism, and development pathways.
  • Examine the climate and environmental impacts of the disruption, including direct environmental harm, indirect ecological consequences, climate resilience, environmental governance, reconstruction risks, pollution, energy choices, food and water security, and environmental justice.
  • Identify implications for Greenpeace MENA’s campaigns, narratives, advocacy priorities, partnerships, movement-building, public positioning, and regional relevance.
  • Provide strategic recommendations to inform Greenpeace MENA’s updated Theory of Change, including revised assumptions, systems analysis, leverage points, pathways of change, risks, opportunities, and priority strategic choices.
  • Support Greenpeace MENA in understanding how to “meet the moment” in a way that is politically grounded, climate-relevant, justice-oriented, conflict-sensitive and aligned with Greenpeace values.

Scope of Work

The consultant or consultancy team will undertake a regional strategic assessment of Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, the UAE and KSA, covering the following areas:

Geopolitical Analysis

The assessment should examine:

  • Regional power shifts and emerging alliances.
  • The role of key state and non-state actors.
  • Impacts on diplomacy, regional cooperation and multilateralism.
  • Shifts in security priorities and implications for climate and environmental agendas.
  • Governance implications, including state capacity, legitimacy, public trust, and institutional fragility.
  • Civic space, freedom of expression, and civil society risks and opportunities.
  • Public narratives related to war, security, sovereignty, justice, energy, and environment.
  • Implications for regional climate diplomacy and the role of MENA countries in global climate negotiations.

Economic and Political Economy Analysis

The assessment should examine:

  • Macroeconomic disruption, including inflation, debt, fiscal pressures, investment risks, and currency instability where relevant.
  • Impacts on trade routes, supply chains, food systems, energy markets, and transport.
  • Energy security debates and whether the disruption reinforces fossil fuel dependency or creates openings for renewable energy transition.
  • Reconstruction economies and the risks of extractive, carbon-intensive, or unjust rebuilding models.
  • Livelihood impacts, particularly for vulnerable communities, workers, youth, women, refugees, displaced people, and informal sectors.
  • The role of fossil fuel interests, reconstruction actors, private sector interests, and international finance.
  • Risks of deepened extractivism, militarization of economies, or environmental deregulation.
  • Opportunities for just transition, decentralized renewable energy, resilience, and community-led economic alternatives.

Climate and Environmental Analysis

The assessment should examine:

  • Direct environmental harm linked to war, including pollution, destruction of land and infrastructure, toxic contamination, ecosystem damage, waste, water pollution, air pollution, and marine impacts where applicable.
  • Indirect environmental consequences, including weakened regulation, emergency governance, reconstruction pressure, increased fossil fuel use, and reduced attention to climate commitments.
  • Climate resilience implications for communities facing heat, water scarcity, food insecurity, energy insecurity, and displacement.
  • Environmental justice dimensions, including unequal exposure to harm, intergenerational impacts and the disproportionate burden on already vulnerable communities.
  • Environmental governance risks, including rollback of regulation, reduced accountability, corruption risks and limited enforcement.
  • The relationship between war, fossil fuel dependency, militarization, ecological degradation, and climate vulnerability.
  • Strategic opportunities to connect peace, justice, climate resilience, renewable energy, environmental protection, and community safety.

Implications for Greenpeace MENA

The assessment should identify implications for Greenpeace MENA’s:

  • Regional strategy and programme priorities.
  • Climate, energy, environmental justice, biodiversity, food, plastics, pollution, and movement-building campaigns where relevant.
  • Public narratives and communications positioning.
  • Advocacy priorities at national, regional, and global levels.
  • Partnerships, alliances, and civil society engagement.
  • Risk appetite, security approach, and conflict-sensitive campaigning.
  • Role within the wider Greenpeace global network.
  • Ability to connect regional lived realities with global climate justice narratives.
  • Opportunities to influence climate diplomacy, public debate, donor engagement, and movement mobilization.

Implications for Greenpeace MENA’s Theory of Change

The consultancy must include a dedicated analysis of implications for Greenpeace MENA’s new Theory of Change. This should include:

  • New or revised contextual assumptions.
  • Key system dynamics affecting climate and environmental action in MENA.
  • Strategic leverage points for Greenpeace MENA.
  • Priority actors, allies, blockers, and influencers.
  • Pathways of change that are credible under current geopolitical and economic conditions.
  • Risks and trade-offs for Greenpeace MENA’s strategic choices.
  • Opportunities for campaign integration and cross-regional influence.
  • Recommendations on how Greenpeace MENA can remain relevant, courageous, effective, safe, and justice-oriented in a rapidly changing context.

Key Questions

The consultancy should address, at minimum, the following questions:

Geopolitical Questions

  • How has the latest war changed regional power dynamics, diplomacy, and governance priorities?
  • What are the implications for civic space, civil society organizing, and public advocacy?
  • How are security, sovereignty, justice, energy, and environment being framed by governments, media, and civil society?
  • What risks and opportunities does this create for climate and environmental campaigning in MENA?
  • How might this moment affect regional and global climate diplomacy?
  • What were the temporary or long-term policy responses to the war related to various issues (energy, agriculture, industry…) in various countries?

Economic Questions

  • What are the main economic impacts of the war and wider disruption on countries and communities in the region?
  • How are energy security, fossil fuel dependency, and renewable energy being affected by the disruption?
  • What are the likely implications for reconstruction, public finance, trade, livelihoods, and inequality?
  • Who benefits economically from the disruption, and who bears the costs?
  • What political economy forces may enable or block a just and green transition?

Climate and Environmental Questions

  • What are the direct and indirect environmental impacts of the war and regional disruption?
  • How does this moment affect climate resilience, environmental governance, and environmental justice?
  • What repercussions and risks exist of environmental deregulation, fossil fuel lock-in, or extractive reconstruction?
  • How are vulnerable communities exposed to compounded conflict and economic and climate risks?
  • What opportunities exist to advance environmental protection, renewable energy, resilience, and justice?

Greenpeace MENA Strategy Questions

  • What does this disruption mean for Greenpeace MENA’s current campaigns and strategic priorities?
  • Which campaign narratives may need to be adapted, strengthened, or reconsidered?
  • What new alliances, partnerships, or constituencies should Greenpeace MENA consider?
  • How can Greenpeace MENA position itself credibly and safely in a conflict-sensitive context?
  • What role can Greenpeace MENA play in connecting regional realities to global climate justice debates?

Theory of Change Questions

  • What assumptions in Greenpeace MENA’s emerging Theory of Change need to be revised?
  • What new leverage points have emerged because of the current disruption?
  • What risks and opportunities should shape Greenpeace MENA’s future strategic choices?
  • What pathways of change are most realistic and impactful in the current regional context?
  • How should Greenpeace MENA define its added value in this new political, economic, and environmental landscape?

Methodology

The consultant or consultancy team is expected to propose a robust and participatory methodology. At minimum, the methodology should include:

Desk Review — A review of relevant literature, including geopolitical analysis, economic assessments, climate and environmental reports, humanitarian and development analysis, Greenpeace materials, regional policy documents, civil society reports, media analysis, donor analysis, and relevant academic sources.

Stakeholder Mapping — A mapping of key actors, including governments, regional institutions, civil society organizations, social movements, youth networks, environmental groups, humanitarian actors, private sector actors, fossil fuel interests, reconstruction actors, donors, media, think tanks and potential allies.

Key Informant Interviews — Confidential interviews with selected internal and external stakeholders, including Greenpeace MENA staff, Greenpeace global colleagues, regional experts, civil society partners, economists, geopolitical analysts, environmental experts, climate justice advocates, and relevant movement actors.

Political Economy Analysis — An analysis of interests, incentives, power relations, winners and losers, institutional constraints, economic dependencies, and the role of public and private actors in shaping energy, reconstruction, environmental governance, and climate policy choices.

Conflict-Sensitive Environmental Analysis — An assessment that considers conflict dynamics, harm risks, trauma, public sensitivities, security constraints, environmental damage, justice concerns, community vulnerabilities, and the ethical implications of Greenpeace MENA’s positioning and campaigning.

Scenario Analysis — Development of a limited number of plausible regional scenarios, including their implications for climate action, environmental governance, civic space, energy systems, economic recovery, Greenpeace MENA campaigns, and the Theory of Change.

Validation with Greenpeace MENA — At least one validation session with Greenpeace MENA leadership and relevant staff to test findings, refine recommendations, and ensure practical relevance for campaigns, strategy, and the Theory of Change process.

Deliverables

The consultant or consultancy team will produce the following deliverables:

Deliverable 1: Inception Report Should include: understanding of the assignment; refined methodology; analytical framework; workplan and timeline; proposed interview list; key risks and mitigation measures; preliminary structure of the final report.

Deliverable 2: Stakeholder and Power Mapping Note A concise mapping of relevant actors, interests, influence, risks, potential allies, blockers, and strategic entry points for Greenpeace MENA.

Deliverable 3: Draft Strategic Assessment Report A full draft report covering geopolitical, economic, climate, and environmental analysis, with clear implications for Greenpeace MENA campaigns, strategy, positioning, partnerships, and Theory of Change.

Deliverable 4: Theory of Change Implications Brief A dedicated section or standalone brief that provides concrete recommendations for Greenpeace MENA’s new Theory of Change, including:

  • Updated assumptions.
  • Strategic leverage points.
  • Risks and opportunities.
  • Suggested pathways of change.
  • Implications for campaign integration.
  • Recommendations for positioning, alliances, and movement-building.

Deliverable 5: Final Strategic Assessment Report A polished final report incorporating Greenpeace MENA feedback, including:

  • Executive summary.
  • Main findings.
  • Strategic analysis.
  • Scenario analysis.
  • Campaign implications.
  • Theory of Change implications.
  • Risk analysis.
  • Actionable recommendations.
  • Annexes, including a list of reviewed sources and interview categories.

Deliverable 6: Presentation and Validation Workshop A presentation of findings and recommendations to Greenpeace MENA leadership and relevant staff, including a facilitated discussion on implications for campaigns and the new Theory of Change.

Timeline

The consultancy is expected to be completed within 8 to 10 weeks from the start date. The final timeline will be agreed upon during contracting and confirmed in the inception report.

An indicative timeline is as follows:

  • Week 1: Kick-off meeting, document review, and inception planning.
  • Week 2: Submission and approval of inception report.
  • Weeks 2–4: Desk review, stakeholder mapping, and key informant interviews.
  • Weeks 4–6: Political economy analysis, environmental analysis, and scenario development.
  • Week 7: Submission of draft report and Theory of Change implications brief.
  • Week 8: Validation workshop with Greenpeace MENA.
  • Weeks 9–10: Finalization and submission of the final report and presentation.

Required Expertise

The consultant or consultancy team should demonstrate strong expertise in the following areas:

  • MENA geopolitics, conflict dynamics, and regional diplomacy.
  • Political economy and macroeconomic analysis.
  • Climate policy, environmental governance, and environmental justice.
  • Energy systems, fossil fuel dependency, renewable energy, and just transition.
  • Civil society strategy, civic space, and movement-building.
  • Conflict-sensitive research and analysis.
  • Strategic planning and Theory of Change development.
  • Experience working with international NGOs, advocacy organizations, or social movements.
  • Strong understanding of Greenpeace values, climate justice principles, and public campaigning is desirable.
  • Fluency in English is required. Arabic and/or French language skills are strongly desirable.
  • Demonstrated ability to produce high-quality strategic reports for senior leadership audiences.

Reporting and Management

The consultant or consultancy team will report to Greenpeace MENA’s Executive Director or designated senior management representative. A small internal reference group may be established to provide guidance, review deliverables, and support access to relevant information and stakeholders.

Greenpeace MENA will provide relevant internal documents, strategic materials, and introductions where appropriate. The consultant will be responsible for managing the workplan, arranging interviews, ensuring ethical research standards, protecting confidentiality, and delivering outputs on time.

Regular check-ins will be agreed upon at the start of the consultancy. At minimum, these should include:

  • A kick-off meeting.
  • A meeting to discuss the inception report.
  • Periodic progress check-ins.
  • A draft report review meeting.
  • A final presentation and validation workshop.

Proposal Submission Requirements

Interested consultants or consultancy teams should submit a proposal including:

  • Technical proposal outlining understanding of the assignment, proposed methodology, analytical approach, and work plan.
  • Financial proposal, including daily rates, level of effort, and total cost.
  • CVs or profiles of key consultants or team members.
  • Relevant examples of previous work.
  • Proposed timeline.
  • Description of experience in MENA geopolitics, political economy, climate, and environmental justice.
  • Description of experience with civil society strategy, advocacy, campaigns, or Theory of Change processes.
  • At least two professional references.
  • Disclosure of any actual or potential conflicts of interest.

Evaluation Criteria

Proposals will be assessed according to the following criteria:

  • Demonstrated understanding of the assignment and its strategic importance.
  • Quality, relevance, and feasibility of the proposed methodology.
  • Depth of expertise in MENA geopolitics, political economy, climate, and environmental justice.
  • Experience with conflict-sensitive analysis and civil society strategy.
  • Ability to connect analysis to practical campaign, advocacy, and organizational strategy recommendations.
  • Experience supporting Theory of Change or strategic planning processes.
  • Quality of previous work and writing.
  • Knowledge of regional actors, movements, and civic space dynamics.
  • Value for money.
  • Availability and ability to deliver within the required timeline.

Ethical and Security Considerations

The consultancy must be conducted in a conflict-sensitive, ethical, and secure manner. The consultant or consultancy team must ensure that the research process does not expose interviewees, partners, staff, or communities to unnecessary risk.

The consultant must:

  • Respect confidentiality and informed consent.
  • Avoid collecting unnecessary personal or sensitive information.
  • Apply a do-no-harm approach in all interviews and analysis.
  • Be attentive to trauma, grief, political sensitivity, and security risks.
  • Protect the identity of interviewees where required.
  • Avoid partisan positioning and ensure balanced, evidence-based analysis.
  • Be sensitive to the diversity of experiences across the MENA region.
  • Recognize the unequal impacts of war, economic disruption, and environmental harm on vulnerable communities.
  • Follow Greenpeace MENA’s security, safeguarding, data protection, and ethical standards.
  • Clearly identify limitations, uncertainties, and evidence gaps in the final report.

The final analysis should be strategic, independent, evidence-based, politically grounded, justice-oriented, and directly useful for Greenpeace MENA’s decision-making.

How to Apply

Please share the required documents listed above to this email address: [email protected] no later than August 25, 2026.