Beijing — According to a new report by Greenpeace East Asia, China is able to peak its power emissions in 2025 at 5.2 billion tonnes, with coal power generation peaking at 5.55 trillion kWh, and peaking could save up to 970 billion RMB.

​​Greenpeace East Asia Beijing-based climate & energy project manager Gao Yuhe (she/her) said:

“2025 is a critical window for China to reshape its power system. China’s power sector is on track to peak emissions as early as 2025, and this will facilitate an earlier peak in societal emissions. But this requires a combination of stronger renewable energy deployment, high-efficiency electrification, and no new coal.” 

The report outlined four power transition scenarios for China, incorporating national low‑carbon power transition targets and projected power supply and demand trends for 2025–2035. The scenarios are built around two key variables: electrification speed1 (high-efficiency vs. accelerated growth) and non-fossil energy deployment pace2 (baseline vs. accelerated development).

Among them, Scenario 3—featuring high-efficiency electrification and accelerated non-fossil energy deployment—emerges as the most effective for ensuring power decarbonisation, energy security, and economic feasibility.

Key targets under this scenario include an average annual power growth rate of 2.8% during China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030) and an installed capacity of 3100 GW of wind and solar and 270 GW of new energy storage by 2030.

In this most ambitious scenario, coal power generation is projected to peak at 5.55 trillion kWh, and power sector carbon emissions are expected to peak at 5.2 billion tonnes in 2025, then enter a plateau. This is up to 160 million tonnes lower than all three other scenarios .

By 2030, non‑fossil energy’s share of power generation could rise to 57%, with wind and solar reaching 35.8%. Power sector emissions would decrease by 11.9%, falling to 4.58 billion tonnes, compared to 2025 levels.

The most ambitious scenario also demonstrates clear cost advantages. Compared to the baseline non‑fossil scenarios, it could save 110 to 400 billion RMB3 in total power system costs over 2025–2035 by reducing coal reliance, even after accounting for increased investments in renewables and flexible resources. Compared to accelerated electrification scenarios, it could save 670 to 970 billion RMB3 by avoiding over-investment and inefficiencies.

However, according to Greenpeace East Asia’s June research briefing, China approved 11.29 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in the first quarter of 2025, after 2024 saw a year-on-year decrease in new approvals for coal-fired power plants to 62.24 GW. In Q1 2025, China’s wind and solar capacity rose to 1,482 GW, surpassing thermal power for the first time. Wind and solar generation also met all the new electricity demand.

Gao said:

“Renewables are increasingly able to meet all of China’s new electricity demand in 2025. China now has every reason to pursue an early emissions peak in the power sector. China must accelerate the integration of renewable energy as the mainstay of the power system. It must stop relying on coal power. This shift is essential to keeping China’s energy transition on track. A clear timetable for phasing out coal power should be formulated, as every new coal approval will limit the space for renewables.”

Greenpeace East Asia urges policymakers to seize the momentum to accelerate power system transformation. Recommendations include:

  • Issue a top‑level blueprint to control coal power generation. This should include forward‑looking plans for accelerating coal power replacement post‑2025 while ensuring security of supply from 2026 to 2030.
  • Establish a dynamic capacity coordination and risk-warning system. China should optimize regional and interregional power resource capacity, strengthen monitoring, and enhance flexibility in commissioning projects to ensure reliability and climate resilience.
  • Enhance active support capabilities of renewables. Renewables must evolve from passive grid followers to active grid supporters, with enhanced stability, flexibility, and control capabilities to ensure secure operation in a high-renewables power system.

NOTES

  1. Based on 2024 total electricity consumption, this report models two scenarios for the electrification speed variable—high-efficiency electrification (low demand growth) and accelerated electrification (high demand growth)—assuming electricity demand growth slows toward or below GDP growth, with sector-level forecasts considered.
  2. This report models two scenarios for the non-fossil energy deployment pace variable: baseline scenarios aligned with national targets, with coal power ensuring supply; and accelerated scenarios with faster non-fossil expansion, enabling earlier coal substitution and a quicker transition of its role.
  3. The report estimates total power system costs (2025–2035) for each scenario, based on assumptions for technology cost curves, operating costs, coal prices, and generation hours.

END

To read the executive summary (in English) click here.

To read the full report (in Mandarin Chinese) click here.

For media enquiries please contact:

Qilin Liu, Greenpeace East Asia, Beijing, ([email protected])

Greenpeace International Press Desk, [email protected], +31 20 718 2470 (24 hours)