Covid-19 is not the only crisis we had to deal with this past winter. Huge areas of the northern hemisphere were in the grip of a brutal winter that left people without electricity, cars piled up, and homes snowed in. Texas went into an unprecedented deep freeze while record snowfalls in Japan left more than a dozen dead. It’s even more extreme when we take into account that the summer that preceded it was one of the hottest on record.
We’ve invited three renowned climate experts from East Asia to explain what science tells us about the climate crisis’ role in deadly weather events and to hear their advice on how to tackle what lies ahead.
Dr. Dawei Zheng (China): We are a community with a shared future
Dr. Dawei Zheng is a former professor and Director of the Department of Agrometeorology* at China Agricultural University
*the study of climate and weather on agriculture
What are your particular areas of research interest?
I study disaster reduction (for example damage from cold and frost on wheat and maize, and wind erosion in Inner Mongolia). In the past 20 years, I have paid more attention to adaptation to climate change.
Can you talk a bit about this winter and the climate crisis?
This winter, many parts of the world experienced extreme cold and heavy snow. In northern China, winter came early and the temperature dropped to -19.6℃ in Beijing, the lowest since the 1980s.
Although cold snaps happen during most winters, this past year was quite extreme because of climate change.
The impacts of climate change are complex and hidden. Because of human activity – the release of greenhouse gases – the global climate has become warmer and more variable, and this leads to more extreme events. As an example, when the cold wave hit East Asia early last winter, it was still warm in North America. When the cold snap hit Texas, East Asia became very warm, with record high temperatures occurring in late February. This winter, we experienced record-breaking high and low temperatures, while the average temperature over the whole winter was higher than average!
What were some of the immediate impacts of the extreme cold in northern China?
The extreme low temperatures damaged wheat seedlings in the fields outside Beijing. Vegetable prices rose in mid-winter due to the cold damage and roads blocked by snow, but then fell again later because of extreme warming. More energy was consumed for heating, and in poor areas, people did not have enough fuel to keep warm.
What is China doing about the climate crisis?
According to the Third National Climate Change Assessment Report, the average land temperature in China increased 0.9-1.5℃ between 1909 and 2011. By the end of the 21st century, it may increase by 1.3-5.0℃.
The impacts of climate change are becoming more apparent and more severe. We have experienced too many extreme events in recent years, e. g. heat waves, wildfires, cold snaps/snowstorms, locust plagues and sandstorms.
Both mitigation and adaptation are important. China announced it plans to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and go carbon neutral by 2060. This will be very difficult, but we must do it. Everybody should help to save energy and be environmentally-friendly in our daily lives. At the same time, we need to seek adaptive measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change and ensure sustainable social and economic development.
Is there anything else you would like to say about the climate crisis?
Developing countries make up more than 85% of the world’s population, but their GDP is only 20%. Most greenhouse gases were released by developed countries over the past century, but it is developing countries who are suffering more from the negative impacts of climate change now. Developed countries should transfer advanced techniques, concerning both mitigation and adaptation, to developing countries.
We only have one earth. We are a community with a shared future.
Dr. Kyung-Ja Ha (Korea): This is our last chance to reduce climate risk
Dr. Kyung-Ja Ha is a Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and Founder and Head of the Research Center of Climate Sciences (RCCS), Pusan National University, also Professor of IBS Center for Climate Physics, and the Senior Vice President of the Korea Meteorological Society
What are your particular areas of research interest?
My main fields of study are monsoon climate, climate dynamics, and global hydroclimate change. My studies aim to develop the predictability sources of the global and East Asian monsoon variability, including climatic extremes, to improve our capability to predict changes in the monsoon from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal* time scales.
*spanning several decades
What happened last winter?
Last winter we experienced strong cold surges in the US and Europe, as well as in East Asia, which were reported as unprecedented. In particular, the cold surge in winter 2020 was more persistent and extended further toward the equator. For example, an extremely cold air mass in the US arrived at the Texas coast and the Gulf of Mexico.
What is the link with climate change?
Many studies have reported an increasing trend for heatwaves and heavy rainfall events in association with human-induced climate change. Through modelling, they have demonstrated that these trends cannot be caused by any other forcings except anthropogenic (human-made) forcing. For example, a study showed that the July 2018 high-temperature event in Japan could not have happened without human-induced global warming.
What should Korea be doing about the climate crisis?
I think we need to prepare action plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation, both at the international and national levels. We have to reduce our carbon emissions to stop further alteration of the climate. I also submitted a report to the Korean government as a member of the Presidential Council of Science and Technology on how to respond to the climate crisis and [achieve] carbon neutrality. We have to prepare national policies to reduce the impact of global warming and promote technologies that can facilitate the transition for future industry under the carbon neutral condition.
What’s going to happen in the future?
In terms of summertime rainfall, some future projections suggest that East Asian summer monsoon precipitation will increase and lengthen in a warming climate. However, future changes in the duration of the rainy season (affected by regional characteristics) are not yet entirely understood.
OK, so what should we do as a matter of urgency?
Globally averaged temperatures on our planet have increased over the past 100 years by about 1°C, global sea levels have risen by 20cm and summer heatwaves have become more common in many regions. Human activities, in particular, fossil fuel burning, are largely to blame for these changes. However, the climatic extremes have occurred differently from region-to-region and time-to-time. Therefore, we may need to resolve the times of emergence of each event with the impact of climate change. Some scientists have emphasized that we are rapidly approaching the tipping point, or a climatic threshold, beyond which a tiny change can push a system into a completely different state. According to a recent study on increased greenhouse gases, global warming will continue for the next 1,000 years.
This is now our last chance to minimize climatic risk.
Is there anything else you would like to say about the climate crisis?
Human activities have been the principal cause of observed planetary warming since the mid 20th century. Recent studies have confirmed that human activities are dangerously changing the climate and have negative impacts on our livelihoods. Not only increasing heat waves, but a warmer atmosphere is able to hold more moisture. If atmospheric conditions remain unchanged, more moisture will lead to more rainfall. Moreover, global warming also influences large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate models show that as a result of wind changes, areas that are already quite dry (presently in the subtropics), are likely to experience more severe droughts in the future, on average. Scientists refer to this as the expansion of the subtropics.
Dr. Jusen Asuka (Japan): Keep on fighting!
Dr. Jusen Asuka is a Professor of Environmental Policy at the Center for Northeast Asian Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai
What are your particular areas of research interest?
My field is energy/environmental policy in this region, including Japan. Primary areas of interest are energy policy and environmental policy (e.g. climate policy, air pollution policy) and international environmental/energy cooperation. I am also a football fan and play regularly!
What was winter like in Japan this past year?
According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, sea surface temperatures near the Sea of Japan were 1-2oC degrees higher than normal, and there was more water vapor in the air, while the air on the ground and in the sky was cold, and ice particles fell to the ground without melting. Cold air from Siberia was carried to the Japanese archipelago by the monsoon blowing from the northwest, and while it was still 10oC degrees colder than normal, it took in water vapour from the Sea of Japan and hit the mountainous areas, causing a large amount of snow to fall for several days.
What role does the climate crisis play in all this?
Tohoku University, the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), and Nagoya University conducted a large-scale global warming prediction on a supercomputer and analyzed in detail the snowfall phenomenon on the day with the heaviest snowfall of the year.
The research group conducted a large-scale global warming forecast for almost all of Honshu [Japan’s main island] with high resolution (5 km grid) and a large number of scenarios (about 1,000 years in total) for a temperature increase of 2°C/4°C since the Industrial Revolution. The scenarios were then used to analyze heavy snowfall. As a result, it was predicted that heavy snowfall in the high altitude areas on the Sea of Japan side will grow stronger than at present. This is due to “an increase in water vapor in the air due to rising temperatures” and “relatively stronger cold waves due to a smaller increase in the temperature of cold air in relation to global warming,” according to the report.
Another research team from the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute of the University of Tokyo used the latest numerical simulations to evaluate the impact of global warming on the probability of heavy rainfall events corresponding to heavy rainfall events in northern Kyushu in July 2009 and July 2008. As a result, the probability of heavy rainfall in the above two cases increased by about 1.5 times and 3.3 times, respectively, compared to the case where no impact of global warming was assumed.
What are the solutions?
My colleagues and I recently published “Report 2030: Japan’s Green Recovery/New Deal” [in Japanese], which is a very comprehensive roadmap showing how Japan can achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. It’s sort like a Green New Deal for Japan for 2030 and 2050. It’s true that, even in Japan, the cost of
renewable energy technology, such as solar power, is declining rapidly. So it increasingly makes economic sense to pursue the energy transition.
Any last words?
I have met with a few people from Greenpeace Asia in the past. Mr. Lauri Myllyvirta [former lead analyst in Greenpeace East Asia’s Global Air Pollution Unit], who used to be in Beijing, helped me a lot when I sued a coal fired power plant in Japan. So I owe him a lot.
Let’s keep on fighting!