There is a fundamental irony and injustice at the heart of the climate change problem. Today’s growing body of evidence of climate change indicates very clearly that the first and worst impacts of climate change are being felt by the poor in the developing world. The responsibility for the problem, however, lies elsewhere, primarily in the rich countries of the OECD but increasingly with rapidly industrializing countries.
Executive summary: Martin Parry, et al´s paper “Millions at Risk”1, which draws together key findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change´s (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, throws these issues into stark relief. It plots the increasing numbers of people at risk from water shortage, malaria, hunger and coastal flooding from climate change against various future scenarios for global temperature rise. By 2050 the numbers are shocking and by 2080, even more so: additional tens of millions of people at risk of hunger and coastal flooding, additional hundreds of millions at risk of malaria, and 3 billion or more additional people at risk of water shortage.
While varying estimates for the socio-economic baseline for development could change these numbers, three central messages emerge:
1. Unmitigated climate change will have absolutely unacceptable human costs;
2. There are enormous benefits to keeping global temperature rise well below 2º C; and
3. In the long term, an aggressive emissions reduction regime is necessary to keep climate change impacts within a range to which it is possible to adapt.
Num. pages: 3
